美国不会有什么好事发生

我们不会有什么好事发生：道格拉斯·麦克格雷戈

Nothing good is going to happen to us : Douglas Macgrego

道格拉斯·雅培·麦格雷戈（Douglas Abbott MacGregor）是一位退休的美国陆军上校和政府官员，也是作家，顾问和电视评论员。 他在海湾战争和1999年北约南斯拉夫的战场上发挥了重要作用。这是他对如今美国的评价。

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHRVU5k_7t4&ab_channel=

我们认为自己是一个无敌而脆弱的巨人，但我们并没有在世界上大步迈进，我们也未能在国内需要的地方进行投资；我们不投资高端制造；我们不是在能源上投资；我们不投资农业部门；这些是我们应该利用的巨大优势；我们不会这样做，也不会害怕中国。

我们应该做的是限制我们的暴露，我们认为他们对我们的经济构成威胁，但停止这种荒谬的胡言乱语，在距离美国 6000 英里的一个名为台湾的不起眼的岛屿上再次开战，这很愚蠢，就像打仗一样荒谬；俄罗斯人在乌克兰对我们来说毫无意义； 这是无关紧要的；这很疯狂。

从西点军校毕业后，我在正规军服役了28年； 我于 2004 年底离开军队。然后，我开始在国防工业中或在国防工业内部从事许多不同的工作，无论是作为顾问还是顾问，然后最终开始成为电视和广播中有关军事事务的例行评论员，最后成为国防部长的高级顾问。 在唐纳德·特朗普担任总统的最后几个月，当整个乌克兰事件开始时，他的辩护； 你的第一反应是什么？如果你愿意的话，我一直处于乌克兰危机的边缘。

早在 2014 年，我就被要求关注乌克兰。

在所谓的少女革命之后，这个非常右翼的政府对俄罗斯充满敌意，主要是由美国和中央情报局，随着时间的推移而构思和执行的。 基辅的乌克兰政府开始积极镇压俄语民众、乌克兰境内的俄罗斯人，尽管是乌克兰公民，实际上却成了二等公民。 因此，冲突只是何时不再存在的问题； 乌克兰是否有一段有趣的历史？ 乌克兰这个词本身的意思是在外围或在边缘或在边缘取决于； 你想如何翻译它？生活在俄罗斯边缘的人们总是与俄罗斯人本身不同； 乌克兰形成了强烈的认同感。

尤其是在 20 世纪； 人们认为它一直都在那里； 乌克兰人一直存在，但我不认为民族意识真的存在； 直到世界大战结束； 一是，当德意志帝国和奥地利军队撤出时，乌克兰曾认真尝试建立一个国家，但失败了，乌克兰最终像沙皇帝国的其他国家一样被布尔什维克化； 不幸的是，列宁是历史系的学生，他非常了解沙皇俄国。 他改变了边界，以确保各省或州内始终存在少数民族； 不管你怎么称呼他们，换句话说，他们将阻止任何可能针对中心的大规模兵力集中； 让我们将俄罗斯宪章和乌克兰境内的其他非乌克兰人纳入其中，以确保不存在种族纯正的乌克兰； 它的出现可能对苏联的统一构成威胁，这是对富农农民的回应

Nothing good is going to happen to us : Douglas Macgrego

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHRVU5k_7t4&ab_channel=DouglasMacgregor%F0%9F%94%88

We think of ourselves as this invincible and vulnerable Colossus that the strides the world we're not and we are failing to invest where we need to here at home; we are not investing in high-end manufacturing; we're not investing in the energy; we're not investing in the agricultural sector; these are our great strengths that we should capitalize on; we're not doing it and instead of fearing China.

What we should do is limit our exposure where we think that they present a threat to us economically but stop this ridiculous nonsense of going to war yet again 6 000 miles from the United States over an obscure island called Taiwan that's silly it's nonsensical just as fighting the Russians in Ukraine is nonsensical for us; it's irrelevant; it's crazy; I spent 28 years in regular army after graduating from West Point; I left the Army at the end of 2004. 
I then began in a number of different jobs working with or inside the defense Industries either as a consultant or an advisor and then ultimately started becoming a routine commentator on television and radio about military Affairs and finally ended up as the senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense under Donald Trump, in his last months as president so when this whole Ukraine thing started; what was your first response well I had been somewhat on the periphery of the Ukrainian crisis if you will I had been asked to look at Ukraine back in 2014.

In the aftermath of the so-called maidon Revolution, which installed this very right-wing government that is hostile to Russia largely conceived and executed by the United States and the CIA over time. The Ukrainian government in Kiev began actively oppressing the russian-speaking population; Russians inside Ukraine, even though they were Ukrainian citizens effectively became second-class citizens; and so conflict was just a question of when no longer; if Ukraine has an interesting history; the Ukraine the word itself means on the periphery or on the margin or on the edge depending upon; how you want to translate it and the people that live on the edge of what was called Russia were always different from the Russians themselves; and the Ukraine developed a a strong sense of identity particularly in the 20th century; people argued that it was always there; there was always a Ukrainian people but I don't think the sense of nationhood was really there; until the aftermath of World War; One there was a serious attempt to build a nation when the Imperial German and Austrian forces pulled out that failed and Ukraine was ultimately bolshevized like the rest of the tsarist empire; unfortunately Lenin who was a student of the history understood czarist Russia very well; and he altered borders to ensure that there were always minorities within the various provinces or oblas; whatever you want to call them who would prevent any large concentration of force that could be aimed at the center in other words; let's include Russians Charters and others inside Ukraine who are not Ukrainian to ensure there is no ethnically pure Ukraine; that emerges it could present a threat to Unity in the Soviet Union and this was out of response to the the farmers the kulaks
the well that that actually comes later that's under Stalin and Stalin sets out
to utterly destroy and annihilate tens of millions of people not just in Ukraine but also in Russia who were
so-called independent Farmers that that was defined Loosely as someone who has a plot of land and may own a cow
in other words that was part of the class Warfare Gambit pitting people against each other but it also created
an opportunity for people to plunder Ukraine murder people plug in their belongings enrich your friends who are
Thugs who were supporting you in Moscow we think that somewhere is between 7 8 9
10 million ukrainians were killed probably one or two million Russians that just happened to be in the way as
well that was not the first time that there was a famine that was orchestrated
to murder people that had already happened under Trotsky and Lenin Stalin perfected it raised it to a high art we
don't know how many millions of people died between the time the Bolshevik Revolution occurred and the second world
war breaks out but certainly somewheres north of 20 million dead it was a
horrible period and the ukrainians of course never forgot it this orchestrated famine then becomes an excuse to
effectively destroy the population and the attempt to sovietize it to transform
it into what the Bolsheviks called the Soviet man terrible crimes were committed whole families were
annihilated and this of course laid the groundwork later on for the Holocaust uh
the nkvd that was responsible for this murdered large numbers of ukrainians and ultimately the ukrainians then respond
with the arrival of the Germans in World War II to a Liberation and take out
their hatred and anger and antagonism on everyone in sight I mean is this this is
hard to characterize today because we don't understand what it's like if you are the only surviving
member of a family of say 11 or 12 that included grandparents and that your land
that you'd lived on for hundreds of years was taken from you along with all of your belongings so that you literally
have nothing left you ultimately learned to hate Moscow or hate to Center and
you're willing to do anything to destroy them and anyone who comes along who promises to destroy them is your friend
that's effectively what happened in Ukraine people in the west know almost nothing
about Eastern Europe if you go to the the Versailles treaty discussions the
level of ignorance about Eastern Europe about Ukraine Lithuania Latvia Estonia Bill Russia just astounding or a place
like moldava which used to be called best Arabia no understanding at all of what existed there no understanding of
the people the complexity of the history and that resulted in numbers of bad
decisions that that produced the Versailles Treaty Organization so the bottom line is I don't I don't
fault people in the West for not paying enough attention it was easier to look at what was happening in Germany because
the Germans were open about it you could you could walk the streets and see what was happening and there were still plenty of Germans willing to talk to you
that wasn't the case in in the Soviet Union where there was absolute Terror absolute control by the nkvd that
ensured Stalin knew everything and everyone else knew nothing well in January I was asked whether or not the
Russians would go in and I was one of the few people in Washington said absolutely they will go
in because they were under severe threat I have to remember that after 2014 the
ukrainians began the process of attacking the so-called two Breakaway republics donatskin luhansk in the East
which were entirely Russian speaking and they killed roughly 14 000 people
between 2014 and 2021 and that was one of the reasons that we
had Dominica course because Putin who was trying to avoid a war uh went to the
Western powers and said look we've got to have some sort of solution in Ukraine which provides for the welfare care and
security of the Russians living on Ukrainian soil no one was particularly interested in listening but he persuaded
Merkel and macron to sign up for these Minsk Accords which essentially obligated Ukraine to take measures to
ensure that Russians would be treated equally before the law that they could speak their language go to school and so
forth as as Russians inside Ukraine it was never taken seriously by the west and that of
course is what Chancellor Merkel admitted publicly during the summer that the entire Minsk Accord process was
simply designed to buy time to continue the build up of the so-called Ukrainian
Army and what had been happening since 2014 is a very directed deliberate effort to
build not just an army to defend Ukraine but to build an army that would attack
Russia the army that that emerges from this process that we see fighting in 2022 was a very fine force it was
extremely well trained by NATO standards standing force of about 450 000 with 200
000 trained Reserves there's a lot of evidence to suggest that by
the spring of 2022 that this Army would probably be hurled at these two
Breakaway republics with the goal of forcing them back under Ukrainian Rule and I think Putin decided that since the
Minsk Accords were a failure that he would make one final diplomatic effort which of course he makes in December and
January to try and persuade us principally who are the real backers of
the war in Ukraine to come to the negotiating table and make arrangements that would avoid the war we demonstrated
we were totally disinterested but I think most people in Washington concluded that the Russian economy
wasn't strong enough to support a serious war and that ultimately the
Russians would balk and not go in I was quite convinced that they would however
I thought they would go in differently from the way they went they went in with a relatively small force and I think the
attempt was to do two things first of all avoid killing as many people as possible
secondly avoid damage to the infrastructure and then third to
persuade us in the west that he was quite serious about his request for a negotiated settlement
it takes him several months to discover certainly by June and July that he has
no negotiating Partners in the west and more important he discovers that we in
the United States are willing to bankroll this war against Russia effectively in perpetuity because our
real goal is to displace Putin from power and that's made very clear in
Biden's speech in Warsaw when he visits in March and ultimately to dismember
Russia to carve it up get control of its resources literally erase Russia as a
great power this was never acceptable to Putin or for that matter to the Russian Nation
and thus they had to make some new decisions we're not going to be able to fight this war with what we have we're
going to have to build new and bigger and better forces and since then the Russians have brought in an additional
400 000 reservists and volunteers these people are now trained they've been
assimilated into the Russian army and they are dispersed around the Ukraine
the vast majority of these troops have continued to train and they're sitting in reserve now what they have done is
they've rotated some Russian forces forward so they could see the battlefield see the enemy some units
have gotten limited exposure but for the most part the war in the South has been waged with a
a Reliance of what I would call an ISR strike complex that is where you link
intelligence surveillance reconnaissance platforms banned and unmanned space-based as well as terrestrial
two strike systems strike systems being artillery borders Rockets missiles and
unmanned aircraft are what we now call drones all of these have been organized to be very responsive very short period
of time and Destroy concentrations of Ukrainian forces as they try to attack the Russians in defense
this has been enormously successful and as a result certainly in November
December and January the exchange rate was about eight Ukrainian dead for every
one Russian killed and people in the west don't understand that the difference in Striking power is one to
ten for every one gun that the ukrainians have the Russians have ten
Putin had given strict orders don't kill civilians don't destroy infrastructure
and then when they realized they didn't have enough forces they decided to essentially lay Siege to places like
balita pole and mariopol in Mario poll they had thousands of ukrainians
eventually surrender but they killed thousands of ukrainians and so they they learned that it wasn't very sensible to
go in building the building room to room and try and dig people out it was easier to essentially cut them off cut the
power cut the water and then let time do its work for them the problem for the
Russians is this we have said that we will not relent that we are going to fight them until
they're destroyed if you tell the Russians that the Russians say to themselves well this war will only end
when we are on the Polish border that's that's a terrible situation frankly for Ukraine because we've said
we will not negotiate I don't think Putin expected that this would drag on I think he really thought that once he
showed us in the west that he was serious and that the Russians would not tolerate this large anti-russian
military establishment in eastern Ukraine that we would then say stop
let's negotiate and of course he was wrong his great fear was not just the
Ukrainian force in eastern Ukraine but that over time we would emplace missiles
in eastern Ukraine that could reach Russia's nuclear deterrent and that worried him about his ability
then to deter us from using nuclear weapons against Russia in the future but how could this operation take so long
well very simply he had a relatively small regular army and this small force
was simply not large enough to fight a war in a country the size of Texas remember he was initially only
interested in a portion of what we would call Texas it's so it's as though you said well the Panhandle in Eastern Texas
are Russia the rest of its Ukrainian I want to ensure the Russian citizens in
the Panhandle and in Eastern Texas have equal rights before the law they're not
oppressed they're not being brutalized they're not being punished for being Russians that was his goal and then to
find some sort of solution for the two republics luhanska Donetsk and to extract from the ukrainians the
understanding that Crimea was not up for discussion it was legitimately Russian and had been for hundreds of years
and he hoped then that he could make Ukraine neutral as a multinational Multicultural state
which is rather interesting because we have all of these people currently Waging War against him who ostensibly
hear her insisting on multinationalism and multiculturalism but they want to destroy Russia when Russia was only
interested in ensuring equal rights for their own citizens and neutrality for Ukraine
we insisted no Ukraine has to be a member of NATO and the Russian position had been for decades no that touches our
borders it sits on our border we will accept neutrality no one's forces there not yours not ours no ones except
ukrainians and they held up the Austrian State treaty as a good model for Ukraine
and if you haven't looked at the Austrian State treaty you should because it has worked very effectively and he
was convinced that this could work in Ukraine obviously he was wrong and that left him no choice but to do what he's
done there are estimates that the ukrainians have now fielded three armies in a row the first Army was largely
destroyed in the spring contrary to popular beliefs the ukrainians were not winning relentlessly
which was reported in the news media the exchange rate with the Russians was
never good then they built a second Army in the summertime that was designed to take the
offensive against the Russians that Army was largely destroyed by the full
and then they built a third Army which is now dying and much of it has died in
bakmut along this 160 mile front in the north of the donbos the donuts basin
Baka mood has become probably one of the largest blood bass we've seen certainly since the Battle of Shanghai in 1937.
now there are estimates of 250 000 dead ukrainians uh that's that's beyond what
I had anticipated I thought perhaps 200 000 I'm being told no it's much higher and it's again because of this
overwhelming strike presence on the Russian side the Russians have the
advantage in the air they have the advantage on the ground and the ukrainians can't compensate for that
because they simply don't have the wherewithal whatever we send to them is being destroyed almost as soon as it
shows up at the front they've been they've been sending these high Mars systems rocket artillery systems over
there the drones that fly over identify them the artillery strikes them and they're dead
and this goes on and on and on if you're saying all this Aid to Ukraine is added
dead to them yeah absolutely they'll be in debt for centuries well they they already are and there's no chance of
ever climbing out of it I mean this is the great tragedy Ukraine as a nation has been destroyed they started out
rethink with maybe 37 million 37.5 remember if you go back into the early
90s they had almost 90 people 90 million people living in Ukraine when when this
war started there were about 37.5 million there were already two million
ukrainians working and living in the West in other words uh everywhere from
London to Rome now add to that 10 plus million refugees
uh at least two million ukrainians that were Russians have gone into Russia
another 9 million ukrainians plus have gone into Western Europe and each day
more go there there are almost no women and children left you do have some men
but we're looking at somewhere is between 18 and 22 million people left in Ukraine and how many of those men are
physically fit and capable of fighting I don't know what that potential is but it's way below what people estimated
initially and you they're now bringing in women and and young boys and men over 40 50 60
to come in and and join units that have been reduced from say 500 men down to
100 men I mean this is a a tragedy unlike anything we've seen since World War II unfolding in front of us well if
you look at the people that are running the show in Ukraine right now they don't seem to be terribly concerned about the
destruction of the Ukrainian nation and its state that's the best that I can say they
they're behaving very much like Stalin and we now know that the losses during the second world war were not 20 million
they were at least 35 to 39 million in fact when I was in Moscow in 2001 I I
was told that they were then had counted 39 million nine hundred thousand and we're still counting based on their
access to the nkvd archives this government seems to think in those
terms that they can sacrifice whole generations of men in order to achieve
their aims I I don't see any evidence that it's going to work and the Russians are not going to run out of ammunition I
mean we've been hearing about the Russians running out of everything their factories their manufacturing centers
are turning out equipment and ammunition 24 hours a day seven days a week and multiple shifts the Russians aren't
running out of anything but we are we've just about run out run through our own War stocks same thing has happened in
Europe where the war Strokes stocks were never very high to begin with so you've got the German defense
minister saying we can't send anything else or we won't be able to defend ourselves
and I think you're going to hear that from a lot of European States now is any of this helping Ukraine I I don't think
so I think the only thing that we've done is uh played a key role in the
destruction of Ukraine and from the very beginning I had said to several people
Ukraine is to the Russians essentially what Mexico is to us if we discovered there was a large army
that was built exclusively for the purpose of attacking the United States and its goal was to quote unquote
liberate New Mexico Texas Arizona and Southern California from the evil white
Yankees I think we would have acted instantly to destroy that army the
Russians have essentially done the same thing so there was never any chance that the ukrainians were going to win an
all-out war with Russia and right now they've got an all-out war with Russia well you've got a nation of over 140
million finding a country of what 37 million now down to somewhere is between 18 and 22 million I don't I don't think
there's much chance that the nation of 140 million is going to lose and then finally the Russians are
sitting on territory that has the resources the manufacturing the industry
the technical development that represents about 90 percent of Ukrainian
gross national product they already control it and they're not going to leave it so how does prolonging this war help
Ukraine I don't think it does I don't see any evidence for it when you deal with the military and the political
leadership in Washington the key questions that are never asked is first of all what is the purpose of
this operation and then someone says well the purpose is to remove Putin from Power
well that's a dumb idea because it's not going to happen if that's your goal that
objective makes no sense so give me another objective well we want to hurt the Russians
well in what regard well we're going to sanction them well we already know that the sanctions have failed there's no
chance of destroying the Russian economy through sanctions on the contrary the ruble is now one of the strongest
currencies in the world and the Russian economy has actually thrived because there are plenty of
people in the world that want to do business with the Russians because the Russians have an abundance of food and abundance of resources mineral resources
oil Natural Gas so if that's the case that's not a reasonable objective so give us another
objective we never go through that well if you don't ask the first question what's the purpose and come up with
something reasonable the second question is how do you plan to do this
and no one no one ever sat down well we're just going to drop an avalanche of
equipment on top of the ukrainians we're going to give them our best intelligence that should be enough finally what do
you want it to look like when it's over well we want Russia to be destroyed and Putin to be gone well again this is
absurd this is nonsensical what are you talking about it is crazy crazyville so
you don't have responsible mature balanced diplomats and Military
commanders talking to you talking to people who are worse than amateurs
they're ideal ideologically blinded to reality their hatred is unbalanced them
you know the first question I ask people and they start oh well yeah Russia once Russia's destroyed then it's just China
where are these Russian and Chinese armies mobilizing to invade us where are these vast Air Forces ready to
attack us and bomb us where are these vast fleets assembling off our shore to
invade us and destroy us this is just nonsensical it's crazy we are still
fortunate in that we do live between two major oceans we have an enormous strategic advantage over everyone we've
squandered it by making enemies we're really frankly there were none and that's very true for Russia Russia to
actually cooperated with us very closely especially after 2001 and their help in
Afghanistan to us in the beginning was absolutely essential if we hadn't had their
intelligence and their support with the Northern Alliance we could not have gone into that country and stayed for any
length of time the notion that Russia was this unconditionally hostile enemy
was never true I think it is now and I think it will be decades before the Russians really recover from their
experience with us so the you know at this stage it's hard to see anything good happening for us I don't think NATO
is going to survive this experience I think the Europeans are going to come out of this with new governments I don't
know if they'll happen next week or in six months but I think governments are going to change in Europe you're going
to see new leaders emerge and their attitude is going to be why should we follow these Americans all the things
that we don't like about the Chinese we can deal with here at home if you
don't want the Chinese to steal your intellectual property then don't allow them into your Laboratories your
corporate Labs your University Labs your research and development why let them in why let them study in our universities
if you're that concerned about the Chinese why not defend your border you're letting thousands of Chinese walk
into our country illegally right now we don't even know where they went we don't know where they're going we don't know
what they're here to do that doesn't seem to bother anybody but those things should be addressed
here at home first and then you need a trade policy and the trade policy is very simple we'll do business with China
if it's in our interest to do so if it's not in our interest to do so we shouldn't do business with them it's a
very simple Prospect and we got to get a hold we got to get control of this very
corrupt Elite in this country the the people that shipped our manufacturing
base to China are are the wealthy ruling classes of this country they began that
process while Reagan was in office and it simply snowballed in the 90s under Clinton lots of people got rich
from Shipping out those factories those manufacturing centers what difference
did it make to us whether Ukraine was neutral or not none we should have made it neutral when
Eisenhower was President he ultimately welcomed Austria's neutrality because he argued that we don't have the resources
to defend all these countries the more neutral States we create the easier the military burden is on us well
that was in the 1950s when we were certainly stronger conventionally than we are today
and if you look at the balance of power between the various States we're dealing with a continental power in Russia we're
primarily a maritime in Aerospace power our strength is really at Sea and in the
air we are only a land power in the Western Hemisphere so the notion that somehow Or Another
We're going to take on and defeat a continental power is ludicrous nonsense
and we are we are failing to invest where we need to here at home we are not investing in high-end
manufacturing we're not investing in energy we're not investing in the agricultural sector these are our great
strengths that we should capitalize on we're not doing it and instead of fearing China what we should do is limit
our exposure where we think that they present a threat to us economically remember China abandoned communism in
the early 1990s that's what people don't seem to understand we keep saying the Chinese Communist Party the Chinese
Communist party I challenge anybody to find a communist in China these people are capitalists they understand how to
make money and what China wants to do is wants to transform itself into some facsimile of Singapore
by the way so do the Japanese and the Koreans they're all very enamored of the Singaporean model
well that's reprehensible to us because we'd say Singapore is a fascist state which of course it is it's a partnership
between the corporations and the government that goes far beyond anything we imagine and then the rules and laws
of those areas are strictly enforced by the government and the government owns
virtually all of the property we don't understand Asia we don't understand the people in Asia we absolutely do not
understand the Chinese and what they want they do not want to live in a liberal democracy as we imagine it
they don't want to elect a a president from a multi-party system G is
effectively the modern equivalent of the Chinese emperor and they're very happy with that because they see that as
absolutely essential to their security and what are the three things that the Asians expect from their government they
expect security from external attack and that was something the Chinese Emperors failed miserably to do in the last 200
years of Chinese Imperial rule they expect the people to be fed something
else that the Emperors failed to do at the end of their Dynasty or dynastic succession and three they expect the
population to be sheltered now if you look at those three things the Chinese leadership today has done
those things very well if you compare China to say India there is none of the
crippling poverty the horrific poverty that you see on the streets in India does not exist in China and China has
1.4 billion people those three things are what they want we in the United States should be demanding
something similar from our own government security number one for our country
and that has been treated with complete contempt if not total disinterest they
were really interested in protecting us we wouldn't have this wave of criminality sweeping across the country
we wouldn't have these open borders how many repeat criminals do we routinely
apprehend that have been released for all sorts of terrible crimes who've been deported and keep coming back what sort
of nonsense is this why do we tolerate these things we have a government that seems to be suicidal here at home and
suicidal overseas they're picking enemies that we cannot take on a defeat nor should we try and we don't have to
and at the same time they're doing things here at home that are destructive to our society
it's hard to imagine a worst set of circumstances and the question is not so much
what do we do about the government what do we do about the American people who are the Americans where are they
what are they doing when are they standing up and saying no more
we will not tolerate this any longer it hasn't happened because here
the standard of living is still too high life is still too easy I think the current financial and
economic crisis is about to change that and so perhaps that will awaken the American people to their
responsibilities to themselves and maybe then we'll get a different government than wants to protect us that
wants to feed us it wants to shelters