通货膨胀打击经济，德国陷入衰退

通货膨胀打击经济，德国陷入衰退

作者：Lucy Hooker，商业记者，BBC 新闻，2023 年 5 月 25 日

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65707206

 

升级的增长数据显示，持续的通胀导致德国在今年前三个月陷入衰退。
分析人士称，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后天然气供应枯竭，欧洲最大经济体也受到严重影响。

统计局称，一月至三月经济收缩了0.3%。

去年最后三个月收缩了 0.5%。

当一个国家的经济连续两个三个月或一个季度萎缩时，该国家就被视为陷入衰退。

DekaBank分析师安德烈亚斯·舍尔勒(Andreas Scheuerle)表示：“在巨大通胀的重压下，德国消费者已经屈服，拖累了整个经济。”

德国4月份通胀率为7.2%，高于欧元区平均水平，但低于英国的8.7%。

物价上涨拖累了家庭在食品、衣服和家具等方面的支出。 工业订单也疲软，反映出能源价格上涨对企业的影响。

联邦统计机构 Destatis 在一份声明中表示：“今年年初，持续的高价格上涨仍然是德国经济的负担。”

最初，该机构预计今年第一季度增长为零，表明德国将避免陷入衰退。

然而，修正后的数据显示家庭支出比上一季度下降了 1.2%。

政府支出下降了 4.9%，在政府削减对电动和混合动力汽车的补贴后，汽车销量也下降。

鉴于德国严重依赖俄罗斯能源，经济衰退没有一些人预测的那么严重。 暖冬和中国经济的重新开放有助于缓解能源价格上涨的影响。

分析师表示，私营部门投资和出口有所增长，但这不足以让德国摆脱经济衰退的“危险区”。

LBBW 银行分析师 Jens-Oliver Niklasch 表示：“早期指标表明，[2023 年]第二季度情况将继续同样疲软。”

然而，德国央行（Bundesbank）预计4月至6月季度经济将温和增长，工业反弹抵消消费支出停滞。

国际货币基金组织预测，德国将成为世界发达经济体中最弱的一个，今年将萎缩0.1%，此前它将英国的增长预测从-0.3%上调至0.4%。

Germany falls into recession as inflation hits economy

By Lucy Hooker, Business reporter, BBC News, 25 May, 2023

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65707206

 

Persistent inflation has helped push Germany into recession in the first three months of the year, an upgrade to growth data shows.

Europe's largest economy was also badly affected when Russian gas supplies dried up after the invasion of Ukraine, analysts said.

The economy contracted by 0.3% between January and March, the statistics office said.

That followed a 0.5% contraction in the last three months of last year.

A country is deemed to be in recession when its economy shrinks for two consecutive three-month periods, or quarters.

"Under the weight of immense inflation, the German consumer has fallen to his knees, dragging the entire economy down with him," said Andreas Scheuerle, an analyst at DekaBank.

 

Germany's inflation rate stood at 7.2% in April, above the euro area's average but below the UK's 8.7%.

Higher prices have weighed on household spending on things such as food, clothing and furniture. Industrial orders are also weaker, reflecting the impact of higher energy prices on businesses.

"The persistence of high price increases continued to be a burden on the German economy at the start of the year," the federal statistics agency Destatis said in a statement.

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Originally, the agency had estimated zero growth for the first quarter of this year, suggesting Germany would side-step a recession.

However, the revised figures showed household spending was 1.2% lower than in the previous quarter.

Government spending was 4.9% lower, and car sales also fell after government grants for electric and hybrid cars were scaled back.

 

The recession was less severe than some had predicted, given Germany's heavy reliance on Russian energy. A mild winter and the reopening of China's economy, helped ease the impact of higher energy prices.

Private sector investment and exports rose, but that was not enough to get Germany out of the "danger zone" for recession, analysts said.

"The early indicators suggest that things will continue to be similarly weak in the second quarter [of 2023]," said LBBW bank analyst Jens-Oliver Niklasch.

However, the German central bank, the Bundesbank, expects the economy to grow modestly in the April to June quarter, with a rebound in industry offsetting stagnating consumer spending.

The IMF has predicted that Germany will be the weakest of the world's advanced economies, shrinking 0.1% this year, after it upgraded its forecast for the UK from minus 0.3% to growth of 0.4%.