核心提示：尽管第一共和银行在FOMC会议前几天倒闭，但在会后记者会，联准会（Fed）主席鲍尔（Jerome Powell）仍坚称美国银行体系仍具弹性且稳健。但华尔街资深策略师直言，鲍尔他们都错了，更指美国正陷入比2008年还要严重的危机中，由拜登政府、联准会搭建的「纸牌屋」正在崩溃。

美银行业崩溃中！专业人士预告「比2008还惨」：拜登火上浇油。美国银行业危机，资深策略师表示才刚开始。（示意图）

尽管第一共和银行在FOMC会议前几天倒闭，但在会后记者会，联准会（Fed）主席鲍尔（Jerome Powell）仍坚称美国银行体系仍具弹性且稳健。但华尔街资深策略师直言，鲍尔他们都错了，更指美国正陷入比2008年还要严重的危机中，由拜登政府、联准会搭建的「纸牌屋」正在崩溃。

外媒报导，欧洲太平洋资产管理公司（Euro Pacific Asset Management）执行长兼首席策略师希夫（Peter Schiff）在大众新闻节目中表示，美国经济陷入比2008年严重的金融危机中。同场的还有National Alliance Securities国际固定收益业务主管布伦纳（Andy Brenner），亦认同银行业动荡离结束还很远。

针对联准会在银行业不稳定的情况下，仍坚持升息1码，希夫说，此举是为了符合市场期待，但实际却对打击通膨不起作用，「对于通货膨胀，财政政策就是居室里的大象，我们所面临的是巨额赤字，在联准会减少支出以前，升息1码毫无效果。」

希夫表示，问题在于鲍尔拒绝国会出面，也拒绝将驱动通膨的原因，归咎于不计一切后果的政府支出。他解释，「只要政府维持支出，通膨就会恶化，如今的金融危机就是如此，但没人愿意承认。这只是刚开始，比2008年还要糟糕，联准会最后会降息。」

希夫指出，这几年他不断警告银行可能开始倒闭，而银行现在的崩溃正是确切原因。联准会长年将利率维持近零的水准，金融机构大量购买价格过高的低殖利率公债、不动产抵押贷款证券以及其他贷款。

除此之外，美国联邦存款保险公司（FIDC）的政府审计员鼓励银行购买长天期公债和不动产抵押贷款证券，他们给予银行优惠的会计待遇，只要假装持有至到期，就不必按市值计价。希夫表示，「因此整个纸牌屋都由联准会和政府搭建，但他们却显得事不关己，试图扑灭自己点燃的火，当然，火并未扑灭，反而他们不断火上浇油。」

Peter Schiff: The US Is in a Financial Crisis Worse than ’08

https://schiffgold.com/interviews/peter-schiff-the-us-is-in-a-financial-crisis-worse-than-08/

May 9, 2023 by SchiffGold

During his post-FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insisted that the US banking system is resilient and sound. He said this despite the failure of First Republic Bank just days before the Fed meeting. Peter Schiff appeared on the Claman Countdown on Fox News and argued that Powell and others are wrong. He said the US economy is in a financial crisis worse than in 2008.

Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, also appeared in the segment. He started things off by saying problems in the banking sector are “not over by a longshot.”

Liz Claman asked Peter why the Fed raised rates another 25 basis points despite the shakiness in the banking sector. Peter said they did it because that’s exactly what the market expected.

That’s what the Fed does — what the markets expect.”

But Peter said the move by the Fed isn’t going to do anything to bring inflation down.

The elephant in the room with respect to inflation is the fiscal policy – the debt, not the ceiling – but the fact that we’re running these massive deficits. But until the Federal government reduces spending, these quarter-point increases are going to be completely ineffective.”

Peter said the problem is Powell refuses to call Congress out and mention that the driving force behind all of the inflation is reckless government spending.

And as long as the government keeps spending, inflation is going to get worse, and so is the current financial crisis. Nobody wants to admit we’re in a financial crisis. It’s worse than the one we had in 2008. It’s just getting started. Ultimately, the Fed is going to cut. But it’s going to cut as inflation is accelerating.”

Liz played a clip of Jerome Powell saying that the Fed is now paying particular attention to tightening credit conditions and its impact on bank lending. She also pointed out that Peter has previously said that the Fed has screwed up everything that is a function of interest rates. So how will these things specifically impact the economy moving forward? Peter said it was going to affect banks in particular.

I have warned for years that the banks could start collapsing for the precise reason that they’re collapsing now. The Fed kept interest rates at zero for so long. That’s what allowed these financial institutions to load up on overpriced, low-yielding Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and other loans. Plus, US government auditors from the FDIC encouraged the banks to buy these long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities because they gave them favorable accounting treatment. The banks didn’t have to mark them to market as long as they could pretend they would hold them to maturity. So, the whole house of cards was erected by the Fed and the US government. And now it’s collapsing, and they’re acting like they have nothing to do with it. They’re trying to figure out how to put out a fire that they lit. And of course, they’re not putting out the fire. They’re pouring gasoline on it.”

Brenner noted that there are about $1.9 trillion in unrealized losses on bank books. Liz pointed out that a study from Stanford and Columbia Universities found 186 US banks are in distress. Brenner reiterated, “No question, the banking crisis is not over by a longshot.”

Peter said everybody who has debt is going to feel the pain of rising interest rates.

It makes that debt hard to service. And of course, there’s a lot of debt that is still low because it hasn’t matured yet. A lot of corporations, a lot of people in the real estate market, particularly commercial real estate, borrowed money two, three, four, five years ago at a really low rate. And the higher rates are when those loans mature, it’s going to be that much harder for them to get the financing to roll them over. And then you have the prospect of very disorderly bankruptcies throughout the economy.”

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Peter Schiff: Great Depression 2.0 Is Incoming

https://schiffgold.com/interviews/peter-schiff-great-depression-2-0-is-incoming/

MAY 15, 2023 BY SCHIFFGOLD

Peter Schiff appeared on First TV’s I’m Right with Jesse Kelly to talk about the state of the economy, inflation, and the unfolding financial crisis. Peter warned that we’re heading straight toward Great Depression 2.0.

Jesse opened the show by noting that the CPI fell to 4.9% in April. That’s an improvement, right? Peter responded, “I guess it’s not quite as bad as it was, but it’s not good.”

If you thought prices were high before, they just went up another 4.9% from where they were a year ago, and that was up a lot from where they were a year before that.”

And Peter reminded the audience that these government CPI numbers are not honest.

You basically have to double the official numbers to get a better idea of what’s actually happening with prices. So, if the government says they’re up 4.9%, they’re probably up closer to 9.8%. That is a better read on what Americans are struggling with.”

Peter explained that the method for calculating the CPI was designed to produce a lower number.

The government doesn’t have to lie. The CPI does it for them.”

Jesse said the Fed is facing a “devil’s bargain.” It has to choose between high interest rates and high inflation. Peter said we’re going to get both.

Interest rates are prices. It’s the price you pay when you borrow money. The price is going up, just like the price of everything else. And in fact, interest expense is a major part of every business. … As interest goes up, well, that’s just another cost that you need to pass on to your customers through higher prices. So, it’s a self-perpetuating spiral.”

Peter said what we really need to tackle inflation is lower government spending.

Government needs to cut spending, but that’s not happening. In fact, they’re doing the opposite. Under Biden, the government is increasing spending, so they are throwing gasoline on an inflation fire.”

So, how does this end in anything other than disaster?

It doesn’t.

That’s the only way it will end because as long as there is no disaster, we’ll keep kicking the can down the road.”

Peter said the crisis is going to come in the form of a sovereign debt and currency crisis.

So, much worse than just the garden variety financial crisis we had in 2008. Because this time, it’s not just going to be subprime mortgages that are the problem. It’s going to be US Treasury debt that’s the problem. Nobody is going to want to own our sovereign debt because of how high inflation is. And that’s also going to create a dollar crisis. There is where we’re heading and it’s a big disaster.”

Peter said everybody is pretending that we’re going to have a crisis if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling.

No! We’re going to have a crisis because we do raise the debt ceiling. Because we’ve continued to raise that debt ceiling instead of dealing with the real problem, which is not the ceiling, but the debt. The ceiling would be the solution to the problem if they only stopped raising it.”

Peter went on to explain how a currency crisis would impact the average American, pointing out that we enjoy a higher standard of living because of the dollar’s role as the reserve currency. As a result, US trading partners are willing to accept the dollars it prints. Then they loan those dollars back to the US by purchasing Treasuries and other American debt.

We basically get to buy stuff at lower prices and then borrow money at lower interest rates.”

If the world stops wanting US dollars because they no longer have confidence in the US currency’s future purchasing power in the exchange rate of the dollar versus their own currencies, it will cause the prices of everything Americans want to buy to go way up. Meanwhile, the cost of borrowing money will also go way up.

So, Americans see their standard of living go way down. Because if the price of everything goes up, they can’t afford to buy anymore. So now, a lot of the things we take for granted we can no longer afford. And to the extent that we need to borrow money, we can’t afford that either. So, the entire economy just collapses, and that is the disaster that we are heading for.”

Jesse said, “That sounds like a Great Depression or worse to me.” And Peter agreed.

Yeah, it’s probably going to be worse. It is a depression, but unlike the depression of the 1930s, where the people at least got the benefit of falling prices that provided some relief. During the depression, you lost your job, but at least the cost of living went down. And if you didn’t lose your job, you were actually better off because you had your paycheck and your paycheck went further because consumer prices fell during the 1930s. But this time, even the people who don’t lose their jobs are going to suffer because they’re going to lose the value of their paychecks. They’re going to lose the value of their savings. Because everything that you need to buy is going to be a lot more expensive. And that’s going to compound the burden for the unemployed. Because not only are they going to be without jobs, but their savings are going to be destroyed. And even if they get checks from the government, it’s not going to be enough to afford the basic necessities.”

Why can’t the powers that be see this coming? Peter said they never do. Or if they do, they lie about it.

Why couldn’t they see 2008 coming? That was obvious. Why couldn’t they see this inflation problem? I mean, they were claiming it was transitory when it was obvious that it wasn’t. It’s all about spin when it comes to the government. They’re never going to be honest. They’re either going to lie about what’s going to happen, or maybe they’re just so ignorant that they really can’t see what is clearly apparent to anybody who objectively looks at the facts. So, you’ve got to think for yourself and recognize that the government is never going to tell you about a crisis. You just need to prepare for it yourself.”

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