Bailout计划与市场的辩证关系

bailout计划与市场的辩证关系
		来源: HIGH周刊 于 08-09-27 09:45:11

上周六，《HIGH周刊》推出周末特稿“政府救市的另类思考：资本博弈的催生物”，指出bailout推出的时机是为了配合指数基金九月OE的全力突围。一周来国会两党围绕这个计划可谓浑身解数，辩论不已：各种变形方案也应运而生。正如HIGH周刊在特稿中指出的一样，国会的政客精英们不会让这么一个当初仅仅两页半文字的催生物轻易通过的。这其实也凸现了美国政治中的民主和自由，你总统再呼吁再讲话，财长再发誓再下跪都不可能随心所欲，重大法案必须要经过参众两院的投票通过。 这个计划最后即使通过，也很有可能深深刻上了国会精英们的智慧烙印，不能低估他们的政治智慧和在关键时刻为美国谋取最大的政经利益的动机。救市不只是挽救华尔街，更重要的是挽救美国的整体经济，这恐怕也是国会争议的焦点，所以高总相信，虽然这个bailout计划的出台可能只是当初一部分资本利益集团的一己私利，但是一旦到达国会这样的法律层面，美国的国家机器一旦开动，最后一定会有一样达成协议的文件通过。只是这样一个计划可能已经完全不是财长Paulson当初所要求的东西了。 市场下周怎么走？没有这个bailout还会不会一日暴跌？有了这个bailout计划又会不会一日暴涨？高总认为恐怕都不会了。从九月的情形还是可以看出主力的思路仍然希望有一个年终行情的rally的，所以就这个bailout的计划（不管出不出台：出台可以解读为利好，不出台可以解读为有希望－－从某种意义上说，讨论持续下去恐怕是目前的市场主力所最希望的）而言，目前承载了太多的意义。从某种程度上说，将这个bailout计划上升到国会层面的讨论，Paulson已经赢了，所以即使下跪也是Paulson内心作为一种胜利者姿态的真情流露。 今年的行情如果真的rally之后，明年恐怕就很危险了，该还的帐恐怕都得要还回去的，新低，崩盘之类的考虑就留给明年吧。

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122257682963083173.html
SEPTEMBER 28, 2008, 9:08 A.M. ET

Lawmakers Reach Tentative Bailout Deal

Those present said the bailout plan still needs to be drafted in its final form, a process staff members were expected to continue throughout the night in what one aide called a "marathon drafting session" in Ms. Pelosi's office just off the rotunda in the Capitol building. A formal announcement is scheduled for some time Sunday, though an exact time and location were not immediately available.

A summary of the tentative agreement released by Ms. Pelosi's office said the plan "gives taxpayers an ownership stake and profit-making opportunities with participating companies; puts taxpayers first in line to recover assets if a participating company fails; (and) guarantees taxpayers are repaid in full -- if other protections have not actually produced a profit."

Additionally, the summary said the legislation will expand the range of firms that can sell troubled assets to the government to include pension plans, local governments and community banks serving "low- and middle-income families."

A House Democratic aide said the government would be able to receive warrants it could hold until maturity from financial firms on assets received either through auctions or through direct purchases.

The summary also said the legislation would institute new executive-compensation requirements for participating companies, including "no multi million dollar golden parachutes," limits on compensation generally, and the ability to recover "bonuses paid based on promised gains that later turn out to be false or inaccurate."