HIGH周刊
评点大千股坛，驰骋股市风云
正文
巴菲特的投资理念有时就是一句话：只买行业龙头。因此USG成为万众瞩目下巴老的又一个行业龙头投资；可是行业老二难道就没有希望了？周刊认为EXP将来会给出一个正确答案。
USG：47元，巴老40元买入的股票；EXP呢？目前33+，公司老板也在最近大力买入：
Laurence Hirsch of EXP has made a huge bet that commercial property seems to be on a different level than the housing market. How big a bet? $14+ million, equivalent to approximately 400K on his personal account. Prior to EXP, Mr. Hirsch had been the CEO of Centex (NYSE: CTX), the homebuilder that spun off EXP in 2004.
EXP is the 2nd largest producer of gypsum wallboard, also known as drywall, after USG Corp (NYSE: USG), where Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake to 17.3% just last month.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) reported that crushed stone production in the first quarter of 2006 was 324 million metric tons, up 5.8% from the year-earlier level of 306 million metric tons. According to USGS data, the rise was due to favorable weather conditions and increased activity in commercial, private and public construction.
Aside from wallboard, which generates some 50% of sales and the bulk of its revenue, EXP also makes cement, ready-mix concrete, recycled paperboard, and aggregates. It sells primarily to residential, commercial, and industrial construction customers located near its plants in the western and southwestern US
Trouble is, rough estimates from analysts and materials suppliers suggest that between 40% and 50% of wallboard demand comes from new residential construction. Less that mediocre forecasts from homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) together with disappointing new-home sales data leaves little doubt that the residential market is slowing. What Hirsch is banking on is that this slack will be taken up by the commercial construction and home remodeling markets, which remain robust.
On the other hand, prices of commercial property have always been more volatile than those of housing, partly because the supply lags are longer. Developers plan new buildings when prices rise, but it often takes years to get planning permission and to construct a building, by which time demand may have fallen.
Booms and busts in commercial property caused widespread banking problems in the early 1990s, when property prices fell by 50% in America and Britain and by 70% to 80% in Japan and Sweden. The bursting of a huge property bubble was also a prime cause of Thailands financial crisis in 1997-98.
Will history repeat itself? At least Mr. Hirsch does not think so and with about 47 million square feet of new office space expected to be completed this year, up 30% from 2005, and completions projected to increase 37% to 65 million square feet next year, he has good reason to believe EXP is well placed to cope with a residential market that is turning sour.
The 1st Q results were pretty good. They saw an increase of 26.9% to $259.97 million in revenues translating into a rise of 69.3% to $59.09 million of earnings, or $1.16 a share compared with 64 cents a year earlier. EXP expects to earn $1.30 a share to $1.40 a share in the 2nd Q and $4.40 a share to $4.70 a share for the full year.
With the stock at $36.69 on a Fwd. PE of 7.72 and an extremely low PEG of 0.21, Hirsch may have a point in thinking EXP is cheap.
基金大颚Barcleys（巴克莱）也在最近大力持仓11.31%，虽然今年以来房市不景，但是上月的新屋数据却没有继续为这种景象背书反而超出市场预期。既然巴菲特这个时候进军USG，作为行业亚军的EXP也恐怕没有理由不被看好。上周公司lower FY07的EPS，股价受到打压，今日早盘再次探到33元上方，这个漂亮的W底是不是真底？高总编决定弃USG，今早在33.05买入1000股EXP，欲与巴克莱共舞！
USG：47元，巴老40元买入的股票；EXP呢？目前33+，公司老板也在最近大力买入：
Laurence Hirsch of EXP has made a huge bet that commercial property seems to be on a different level than the housing market. How big a bet? $14+ million, equivalent to approximately 400K on his personal account. Prior to EXP, Mr. Hirsch had been the CEO of Centex (NYSE: CTX), the homebuilder that spun off EXP in 2004.
EXP is the 2nd largest producer of gypsum wallboard, also known as drywall, after USG Corp (NYSE: USG), where Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake to 17.3% just last month.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) reported that crushed stone production in the first quarter of 2006 was 324 million metric tons, up 5.8% from the year-earlier level of 306 million metric tons. According to USGS data, the rise was due to favorable weather conditions and increased activity in commercial, private and public construction.
Aside from wallboard, which generates some 50% of sales and the bulk of its revenue, EXP also makes cement, ready-mix concrete, recycled paperboard, and aggregates. It sells primarily to residential, commercial, and industrial construction customers located near its plants in the western and southwestern US
Trouble is, rough estimates from analysts and materials suppliers suggest that between 40% and 50% of wallboard demand comes from new residential construction. Less that mediocre forecasts from homebuilders such as Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) together with disappointing new-home sales data leaves little doubt that the residential market is slowing. What Hirsch is banking on is that this slack will be taken up by the commercial construction and home remodeling markets, which remain robust.
On the other hand, prices of commercial property have always been more volatile than those of housing, partly because the supply lags are longer. Developers plan new buildings when prices rise, but it often takes years to get planning permission and to construct a building, by which time demand may have fallen.
Booms and busts in commercial property caused widespread banking problems in the early 1990s, when property prices fell by 50% in America and Britain and by 70% to 80% in Japan and Sweden. The bursting of a huge property bubble was also a prime cause of Thailands financial crisis in 1997-98.
Will history repeat itself? At least Mr. Hirsch does not think so and with about 47 million square feet of new office space expected to be completed this year, up 30% from 2005, and completions projected to increase 37% to 65 million square feet next year, he has good reason to believe EXP is well placed to cope with a residential market that is turning sour.
The 1st Q results were pretty good. They saw an increase of 26.9% to $259.97 million in revenues translating into a rise of 69.3% to $59.09 million of earnings, or $1.16 a share compared with 64 cents a year earlier. EXP expects to earn $1.30 a share to $1.40 a share in the 2nd Q and $4.40 a share to $4.70 a share for the full year.
With the stock at $36.69 on a Fwd. PE of 7.72 and an extremely low PEG of 0.21, Hirsch may have a point in thinking EXP is cheap.
基金大颚Barcleys（巴克莱）也在最近大力持仓11.31%，虽然今年以来房市不景，但是上月的新屋数据却没有继续为这种景象背书反而超出市场预期。既然巴菲特这个时候进军USG，作为行业亚军的EXP也恐怕没有理由不被看好。上周公司lower FY07的EPS，股价受到打压，今日早盘再次探到33元上方，这个漂亮的W底是不是真底？高总编决定弃USG，今早在33.05买入1000股EXP，欲与巴克莱共舞！
USG is much cheaper stock than EXP today.
Here is comparison of last Q earning:
EXP: $1.16 per share
PE on normalized annual run rate: $33.57/(1.16 * 4) = 7.2
USG net earning $176 million
Total share count after rights offering: 90 million
USG per share earning = 176/90 = $1.96 per share
PE on normalized annual run rate: 47.3/ (1.96 * 4) = 6.0
You will see that, still USG is significantly cheaper than EXP under last Q earning.
On valuation based on the forward earning estimation, I don't consider that is good comparison. USG is leader in wallboard, much bigger than EXP. There is no reason to believe that EXP can out-perform USG in wallboard market. Both are in wallboard market, but USG is bigger and stronger stock. There is no reason to believe that small companies should trade at higher valuation than bigger and dominant player. Forward estimate is from Wall Street analysts, we don't base our valuation on their estimate.
Second of all, USG is not pure Wallboard manufacturing company. USG had 30% of revenue in ceiling and in distribution business.
Distribution business is not same as wholesale manufacturer. It is like retail business of building material. Ceiling is not same as Wallboard, Majority of ceiling business is in commercial real estate market, and is not linked to residential housing market.
So yeah, EXP has 40% of revenue in cement, but USG has 30% of business in distribution and ceiling too.