《本周最佳操盘手－一诺千金》 10.30.2005

一诺千金，大千的一个崭新ID。本来， HIGH榜是特意准备将这个称号留给未来的一位大千名人的，现在可以说已经横空出世。一诺千金出道以后，本周留下两篇令人叹服的操盘计划，使得这个新ID一下子跨入HIGH榜视野。

PPDI，因为FDA的否决，盘后大跌，在早盘的分析中，一诺千金通过长篇分析，明确指出这是一个超跌反弹机会，并且明确告知开盘价格55以下买入，伺机59左右抛出：结果当天的实际表明20分钟即可实现既定目标：精准，迅速！充分体现了一个职业操盘手的眼光！

如果PPDI给人以偶然的巧合，那么接着公布报表的MSTR，则让我们不得不佩服一诺千金的深厚内功。由于MISS，盘后也是大跌。在早盘，一诺千金再次抛出一份对于MSTR的操盘计划书，同样是大跌，但是这次一诺千金的操盘方案却是任何反弹都是卖空的上上策，而且指出了69的卖空位置，也是非常精准。

连续两个计划，凸现一诺千金的FA TA功底。本周虽然有很多不错的操盘，但是HIGH周刊仍然觉得一诺千金获得本周最佳操盘手当之无愧！

HIGH周刊 ©2005 Copyright



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今日关注：MSTR及如何操作

　　　　　　 一诺千金 于 2005-10-28 06:11:35



今日关注：MSTR及如何操作

MSTR Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.91 per share, $0.13 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.04 (consensus ranges from $0.84-$1.30); revenues rose 8.6% year/year to $65.8 mln vs the $66.2 mln consensus.

Analysts having mixed feelings about MSTR...JMP reits Market Outperform and lowers its target to $85 from $93. However, excluding an unexpected tax expense associated with cash repatriation, MicroStrategy would have posted EPS of $1.12, handily beating the consensus. Given the reason for the miss and firm's view that MicroStrategy has some of the best industrial strength business intelligence products, the firm would be buyers of the stock.... Deutsche Bank is more cautious, saying that while MSTR grew current bookings sequentially (5%), deferred revs declined $2.3m and year-over-year bookings growth rates are at the lowest level since 1Q03. In firm's view, the co's aggressive pricing tactics (licensing audits in 2004 and rigid pricing on incremental capacity expansion since 2004) have inflated past results and alienated customers. Moreover, firm believes MSTR will be challenged to post meaningful revenue growth off 2H04 comparisons and 2005 results. Firm maintains a Sell and $48 tgt.


消息后的反应：这消息出来后，MSTR一度大跌10元，后张家支撑到跌5。66。


基本面研究：

MSTR 是一个少有的软件杰出公司，其微战略软件涉及行业广泛。花儿街早对其高看。在我记忆中，MSTR连续9个季度达20%以上预期。这是第一个没达预期。而且此季度可能表明公司在不得已的情况下，MISS很多。

由此看来，盘前并不是恐慌性卖盘，之所以机构会拉回，那可能是他们的筹码太多，不能象DRIV一样自由下跌。

而且长期来看，虽然其股价没高估，但上升的空间也不大，一来行业竞争激烈，二来其不能确定下季度是不是一样保持高速发展。我相信70是合理的价格。

技术面分析：超作上不是跳空反弹型。可能开盘会有大量抛盘，然后会被强行拉升。

大势与板块配合分析：大盘最近走势诡秘，忽上忽下，表明大的动作即将开始。软件板块行业任然不见太大起色。MSTR应该也不可能有太大的作为。


建议：开盘于69-68卖空，短线可于62-63 买回。然后买进到70附近卖出。中线应于70观望，如70附近震荡，可看下降到60。


结论：卖空是上上策。任何反弹都可以以卖空为主。

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今日关注：PPDI及如何操作

文章来源: 一诺千金 于 2005-10-27 06:09:07



今日关注：PPDI及如何操作
WILMINGTON, N.C., Oct. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PPD, Inc. (Nasdaq: PPDI - News) today announced that ALZA Corporation issued a press release reporting that it has received a not approvable letter from the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on their new drug application for dapoxetine hydrochloride, an investigational compound for the treatment of premature ejaculation (PE). In its release, ALZA stated that it plans to address questions raised in the FDA letter and continue the global development program.

ALZA Corporation further stated that it believes that dapoxetine provides important benefits for men who suffer from PE. PE is a distinct medical condition that has been recognized by the American Urological Association (AUA), the American Psychiatric Association (APA) and the World Health Organization (WHO). PE can have a significant impact on many aspects of a man's life, including his and his partner's sexual satisfaction, the ability to build and maintain relationships, and a general sense of confidence. Currently, there are no drugs approved by the FDA for the treatment of PE. Traditional methods of PE treatment rely heavily on behavioral therapy and/or off-label use of older drugs that are approved for other conditions, all of which yield limited success.

这消息出来后，J&J没有大跌，倒是PPDI跌了8。13%盘前。

PPDI 是一个极为出色的合同药品检验公司，而此ALZA之试验费用可能只占3%不到。况且J&J也不愿意停止PE试验。下一步可能是需要更多的开支。由此看来，PPDI 应该是或可能得到更多的J&J的合同。可以说PPDI至少不会太多受损。

由此看来，盘前的恐慌抛卖是庄稼的伎俩。他们会在此大举买进，然后上拉。

而且长期来看，PPDI的估价应该在100元左右。

从趋势上来看，张家们不太可能让PPDI跌破第一个缺口。

超作上应属跳空反弹型。

建议：开盘于54-55买进，短线可于58-59出货。中线应于60观望，如果60附近震荡，可看65到70。不过要有生技板块强势支撑。而目前此板块教弱。

结论：59出获是上上策。53是止损位。赢亏比是5：1。