百思一解
每个人都在寻求认同，在几十亿的人海里。每个人都在寻求答案，在无穷多的可能中。
正文
查了一下美国自1990到2015 25年间的人口普查数据，有一些有趣的数据跟大家分享。
| White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | |
| 1990 | 75.70% | 12.30% | 9.00% | 3.00% |
| 2000 | 69.70% | 12.70% | 12.50% | 3.80% |
| 2004 | 67.60% | 12.80% | 14.10% | 4.20% |
| 2010 | 63.70% | 12.60% | 16.30% | 4.80% |
| 2015 | 61.60% | 13.30% | 17.60% | 5.60% |
| 相对 1990的增幅 | -14.10% | 1.00% | 8.60% | 2.60% |
| 年均增幅 | -0.56% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
- 白人（西班牙裔除外）：人口比重从75.7%降至61.6%，降幅14.10%, 平均每年递减0.56%.
- 黑人：基本没变化（增长１％)
- 亚裔：人口比重从３％升至５.６％，增幅２.６％，年均增长０.１％.
- 西裔：人口比重从９％增至１７.６％，增幅８.６％，年均增长０.３４％
请注意，这里的百分比是占全国人口的比例。值得关注的是：
- 白人人口比重的持续下降似乎没有停止的趋势，白人族群感到威胁是必然的，某种方式的反击也在预料中。
- 亚裔保持稳定温和增长。５.６％已经远强与２５年前的３％。
- 非裔人口比重基本停滞，西裔一直在保持高速增长（年增速３倍于亚裔，１０倍于非裔)，人口比重已远超非裔。
如果保持上述趋势不变，并假设没有新的其他大规模移民来源，可以预测１０，２０，３０年后如下结果：
| White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | |
| 2025 | 56.0% | 13.7% | 21.0% | 6.6% |
| 2035 | 50.3% | 14.1% | 24.5% | 7.7% |
| 2045 | 44.7% | 14.5% | 27.9% | 8.7% |
西裔人口增速如此高不可能是自然生殖的结果，只能来自非法移民。制止非法移民克不容缓，但与民主党的利益是冲突的。所以我很难相信民主党会担起这个责任。
(1): Undocumented aliens are not entitled to receive welfare.
Please take a look at this:
“Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, and most other public benefits. Most of these programs require proof of legal immigration status and under the 1996 welfare law, even legal immigrants cannot receive these benefits until they have been in the United States for more than five years.”
(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )
(2): On the other hand, they do contribute to the system, but do not receive corresponding benefits -- such as social security:
"They are paying an estimated $15 billion a year into Social Security with no intention of ever collecting benefits," Stephen Goss, chief actuary of the SSA told CNNMoney. "Without the estimated 3.1 million undocumented immigrants paying into the system, Social Security would have entered persistent shortfall of tax revenue to cover payouts starting in 2009," he said.
(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )
(3): >>>另外引進大量低技能勞動力美國能消化嗎？
Please see:
“Echoing the Department of Labor, the USDA, and the National Milk Producers Federation, agricultural labor economist James S. Holt made the following statement to Congress in 2007: “The reality, however, is that if we deported a substantial number of undocumented farm workers, there would be a tremendous labor shortage.””
And:
"“Over the past two decades, most efforts to estimate the fiscal impact of immigration in the United States have concluded that, in aggregate and over the long term, tax revenues of all types generated by immigrants—both legal and unauthorized—exceed the cost of the services they use.” "
(see http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/203984-illegal-immigrants-benefit-the-us-economy )
And:
Ben Carson: We need illegal aliens to do the jobs Americans won’t do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0ENYaKCjXI
(4): >>> 川普的施政目標之一
But, did you know:
Trump favors amnesty for undocumented immigrants
On Fox News on November 12, Trump’s son Eric expressed frustration that the media overlooks this:
The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally. He’s been so clear about that and I know the liberal media wants to misconstrue it, but it’s deporting them and letting them back legally.
Eric Trump is right. His father has been crystal clear that he wants all the illegals to return and live in America.
Listen closely to what Trump is actually proposing. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash earlier this year, Trump explained his plan this way:
I would get people out and then have an expedited way of getting them back into the country so they can be legal…. A lot of these people are helping us … and sometimes it’s jobs a citizen of the United States doesn’t want to do. I want to move ’em out, and we’re going to move ’em back in and let them be legal.
WHO KNEW? TRUMP FAVORS AMNESTY FOR UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS
(see http://www.newsweek.com/who-knew-trump-favors-amnesty-undocumented-immigrants-395512 )
And:
Trump will not touch your entitlements (welfare)
Donald Trump says if he runs for president he’ll make sure entitlement programs aren’t touched.
“I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid,” Trump told The Daily Signal. “Every other Republican is going to cut, and even if they wouldn’t, they don’t know what to do because they don’t know where the money is. I do.”
(see https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/why-donald-trump-wont-touch-your-entitlements )
所以，这条理由使很多人关注川普，却无法完全拉拢选民。但是由于他的直率，这一条理由就足以让他失去很多西裔选民。所以，我们应该更生动地介绍川普的其他政见。同时，也要淡化和分化西裔的敌意。有些人说白种西裔和墨裔是有区别的，我们应该认同这样的选举语言，还要做的就是对合法移民，包括合法墨裔，要加以支持。
因为，希拉里太低劣了，和这样的对手没法完全说真话。
所以，这条理由使很多人关注川普，却无法完全拉拢选民。但是由于他的直率，这一条理由就足以让他失去很多西裔选民。所以，我们应该更生动地介绍川普的其他政见。同时，也要淡化和分化西裔的敌意。有些人说白种西裔和墨裔是有区别的，我们应该认同这样的选举语言，还要做的就是对合法移民，包括合法墨裔，要加以支持。
因为，希拉里太低劣了，和这样的对手没法完全说真话。
我们的分歧在非法移民对美国有利还是不利上，每个人可能看法会不同，也不见得我们都对或都错了。感谢您分享您的看法。
虎啸山林 发表评论于 2016-08-24 10:03:05
回复 'rp2002' 的评论 : 还真没研究过。据我所知，如果一个人有跨族裔血统，一般按主要血统报。但在报考大学或申请职位时，很多人为了沾ＡＡ法案的光，哪怕只沾上Ｎ分之一的非裔亚裔血统也会给自己安上。
(1): There is an estimated 11.4 million undocumented aliens in the US currently. That is actually down from 12.2 million in 2007.
(see
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ )
And, Mexicans are actually leaving the U.S. There has been a net outflow of Mexicans for years.
(see http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ )
(2): Undocumented aliens pay taxes, too. They pay sales tax if they consume in the US; many of them pay income tax (and social security as well); most will pay property tax, either directly (if they own a home) or indirectly (through rent).
(3): Undocumented aliens are less likely to commit crime than native-born Americans.
(see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/surprise-donald-trump-is-wrong-about-immigrants-and-crime/ )
(4): The majority of economists believe that undocumented aliens are beneficial to the economy.
(see http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/magazine/do-illegal-immigrants-actually-hurt-the-us-economy.html?_r=0 )
(5): There is currently a border fence in place between the US and Mexico.
Both Obama and Clinton voted for it (the Secure Fence Act of 2006).
至于奥巴马遣送非法移民，相信这只是非法移民的冰山一角。更重要的是，关闭非法移民通道是更有效彻底的解决办法。Ａｇａｉｎ, Ｉ ｄｏ ｓｕｐｐｏｒｔ ｉｍｍｉｇｒａｔｉｏｎ, ｂｕｔ ｌｅｔ'ｓ ｄｏ ｉｔ ｉｎ ａ ｌｅｇａｌ ａｎｄ ｍａｎａｇｅａｂｌｅ ｗａｙ.
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加拿大的护照俺们大家拿吧。:-) 俺可以骄傲一把，把过期的老护照一交，公民卡一秀，就可以拿新的加拿大护照了。:-) 如果你移民需要reference，俺可以做一个，至少可以证明你在文学城是一个受人欢迎的好公民。:-)
园姐，俺们去加拿大的同一个城市吧，这样，俺们还可以一起开Party。:-) 俺们兴趣好像差不多，俺还可以说，俺不会让人讨厌的。:-)
The minorities are providing a population edge for the US. Otherwise, the US would have been the size of Germany + France + England.
(2): And, the question is not why are the minorities growing so fast. The question is: why are the whites growing so slow?
(3): And, many, many "Hispanics" are considered to be white. The descendants of many Latin American countries find their roots from Spain and Portugal -- generally considered to be white Europeans. Many of them look more "European" than people from Eastern and Southern Europe.
(4): >>>製止非法移民克不容緩，但與民主黨的利益是衝突的。
The Obama administration deported more undocumented aliens than any other president in US history. He is on his way to become the president who deported more than all other presidents combined. (see http://fusion.net/story/252637/obama-has-deported-more-immigrants-than-any-other-president-now-hes-running-up-the-score/ )
Also -- the Obama administration has the most border patrols and border security deployed than any other US president. (see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/29/the-2007-immigration-bill-set-border-security-targets-weve-hit-most-of-them/ )
当米国的贩毒黑社会和墨西哥的黑社会组织融为一体沆瀣一气以后，他们的黑手就象在墨西哥一样，伸向政治，经济，警察等社会各个中的各行各业，然后，美国的民主、法治自然就不复存在。从克林顿在法律边缘游走的电子邮件和基金会等事件，可以一窥美国开始衰败的早期特征。
如果到了那是，俺还没有咽气，俺就和老伴打点行装，回加拿大。上帝还给俺留了一条后路。:-)