【随笔】聊聊零八年总统初选喜莱丽为什么难赢

奥巴马这次以黑马身份跟喜莱丽较劲并暂时处于上风实在是出乎意料之外，当然喜莱丽接下来的选战如果打好，翻本的机会还是有的，这包括剩下的 delegates, super delegates 以及弗罗里达州的选票。

喜莱丽，加油!

下面是我个人观察到的有关这次选举的一些事物，总结成几点，跟大家一起分析讨论。

1) 新闻媒体在暗中帮助奥巴马。这来自两个方面。第一是在每个州选前作报道的时候，故意挑选一些白人口音的男女，在那里激动的鼓吹自己会投奥巴马一票，以此引导选民。公正的话，新闻媒体至少应当报道两个人，一个支持奥巴马，一个支持喜莱丽，因为喜莱丽至少获得四成民众的支持；第二是在报道喜莱丽和奥巴马的竞选演说时，highlight 挑选喜莱丽的段落总是显得那么有气无力，软绵绵的讲话，而奥巴马的讲演总是所谓的 "精彩" 部分。除此之外，新闻媒体在选前公开嘲弄喜莱丽的笑声，并关键时刻大肆报道她的眼泪云云，这均对喜莱丽的声望有打击作用。

2) 喜莱丽本身也是有明显弱点的，这就是她的竞选能力不足。在竞选纽约州参议员的两次选战中，第一次如 "众星捧月" 般，她击败的对手是鲁迪·朱里亚尼。而后者根本不是什么玩艺儿。在共和党本次大选中，鲁迪败得最惨。第二次竞选连任，她的对手也是不堪一击的。因此，喜莱丽当初战胜的只是二三流的竞选弱手。在本次选举中，喜莱丽应该很好的利用自己的老公比尔，但是当有媒体报道批评比尔的做法时，喜来丽又雪藏比尔，实际上这是最大的失策。因为喜莱丽到目前为止，实际上都是依靠比尔才上去的。没有比尔，喜莱丽还只是一个家庭主妇，职业妇女，孩子的妈妈。不管你同意不同意，喜莱丽今天会出来竞选总统，主要还是因为比尔做过八年的总统。可是她却偏偏听信媒体，不用比尔作为主将帮她助选，自动放弃一张王牌，不输才怪呢。

3) 奥巴马确实也是很能说会道，能够激励民众。同时奥巴马的竞选策略确实很狡猾。比如喜莱丽的竞选演说里总是充满了具体行动方案和提纲，而奥巴马什么都没有。没有具体行动方案其实也是一个好的策略，因为一旦有具体的方案，虽然会赢得一部分人支持，但也会因此失去一部分人。不如泛泛而谈比较安全。同时，奥巴马大谈改变和希望，又要谈什么结束 partisan politics (实际上是不可能的事)，骗得听讲演的人晕头转向，全都飘起来了。

4) 以他们两个各自赢得的州的情况看，奥巴马赢得的 democratic calculus 票 (公开投票) 比较多，而喜莱丽赢得的正规选举票比较多 (个人在保密的情况下投票)。在 calculus 里投票是要公开站队的，很多地方的民主党官员都是两面派，他们在公开场合都需要支持奥巴马，这是出于对他们自己的选举利益的考量 (因为他们自己在选举时也需要黑人投票支持)，因此尽管民调显示喜莱丽的支持度高，但选举时 (指 calculus) 并不占便宜。原本是喜莱丽的很多票源就这么流失了。

5) 民主党内有相当一部分民众 (至少百分之十到二十左右) 从根本上就反对家族式 Dynasty 统治，即老布什和小布什十二年，现在再来个比尔八年，喜莱丽八年，十六年的克林顿统治，对他们来说无论如何都不能接受。所以，从一开始他们投入约翰·爱德华的帐下，继而又投入奥巴马的帐下，在这同时黑人弟兄们几乎一边倒的投向奥巴马，这也大大地打击了喜赖丽的得票数。

6) 喜莱丽本人对当总统也想得要命，为了使自己的形象比较 "中立"，她在很多场合，特别是在伊战上的立场，尽量保持 "强硬"，对她自己当年投下的授权票 "死不悔改"，这更激怒了很多激进的民主党人，喜莱丽成了他们的 "叛徒"，必先诛之为快。这批人很激进，都投在了奥巴马的帐下，一夫拼命，万夫难挡。这使奥的力量大增。

最后，很多共和党人对比尔和喜莱丽夫妇恨得要命，真是成也比尔·克林顿，败也比尔·克林顿，喜莱丽对很多选票或者反对票是没有选择的。

可能还有其他原因，各位可以尽量补充。

那么喜莱丽怎么才能扭转目前的不利局面呢？

奥巴马在他的网页中写到，他非常厌倦 partisan politics，并且声称他能够打破 gridlock。奥巴马说他要带来 "改变"，给他的支持者 "希望"，但他如果不斗争，为民众争取利益，他怎么为他的支持者带来 "希望" 呢？他能改变的除了他自己，还有谁呢？

喜莱丽应该大胆的面对选民，向选民指出奥巴马的不诚实。她应当大声的说："My opponent said that he is going to briing the changes and the hopes, but do you trust him? do you trust him?"

DO YOU TRUST HIM?

[TotallyAgree]

Obama给我的感觉象"愤青",煽动的也是一群对社会不够深入了解的"愤青型".要不是现在的经济环境的确很糟糕, Obama这样的小丑是不会蹦太久的.
Hillary,坚持到底就是胜利!
我感觉如果不是Hillary胜出民主党内的总统候选人提名,今年的总统肯定还是共和党的天下.
不过, 今年可真是历届美国总统选举最鬼异的一年, 都快赶上好莱钨的电影剧本了.

[colourofwind]

I feel the same. obarma only talked, nothing much.But most of people still elected for him, that only means most of people don't have ability to justify what is right.

Another funny thing is: Every peopel is afraid of race discrimination. So every people is tring to woe black people. But black people only elect black peopel, they don't care what the world is thinking, why would American care what they are thinking.

I should say black people has more criminal and less education people exist,they are the nation which is civilized. Those are the facts, why we can not say it! This is most funny thing in the world.

[noso]

The best lines I ever heard from Obama:

"Hillary is part of Washington Democratic Network, she needs to be knocked out."

"It makes no difference if you change the soda cup, you need to change how the soda is made."

Do I trust him?

Not yet. : )

[michelle0195]

回复金笔的评论:
I am on your side. Can't trust Obama.

[风娉]

Obama的后台是索罗斯,谁斗的过这疯子?媒体是什么东西?还不是利益至上,有奶便是娘.想当年索罗斯一手制造的亚洲金融风暴,要不是中国政府出手,香港乃至亚洲经济早就完了.希拉里没钱如何与奥巴马斗.美国是金钱社会,离开了钱你能做什么,除非华伦.巴非尔跳出来顶希拉里,那还有希望.不过也许人多力量大,大家要团结起来,用实际行动来表明自己的观点.输赢并不重要,关键是我已尽力了.如果你真的支持希拉里,还是去她的网站多捐点钱吧!
本人强烈鄙视那些选毒贩,屁精为总统的投票人.我向我周围所有的亲朋好友亮明观点:谁要是投奥巴马这个人渣,就永远不要和我往来,而且我说到做到.
因为物以类聚,人以群分.既然你会选这人渣,想来也不会是什么好人,故列入黑名单,永不交往.

[SAR]

金笔,
I made up my just as you did. I have no trust to Obama.

[金笔]

Dear Joyce, I see your points, though I may not agree with you.

No doubt that you belong to the category No. 5 in my post, people who are Clinton haters.

Talking about dirty politics, I thought GOP is the one who often play with it, but not Hillary and Bill. You see, when Bill was in the White House, he did end social welfare program. But he said at that time he was going to restore it through presidential decree. Later he did and kept his promise. You know who benefit most through Welfare program? Blacks!

Clintons did so much for the blacks. Now there is someone who is just half black and had done virtually nothing for the blacks. Even more Barack will not attend New Orleans symposium Saturday because of “problem” in schedules. So he even wants to keep the distance from the blacks. You know what? Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will be in New Orleans Saturday as part of Tavis Smiley's State of the Black Union symposium on education, health, housing and other issues affecting African-Americans.

Just because Barack is halfly black, almost all blacks vote for him, and ignore Clintons, what kind politics is that? And why you get so excited about him? J))

I tell you, I have voted mostly for Dems, but if Hillary loss, me and my few friends will definitely look the other way.

No offense. Thanks you for debating with me.

[joycehuang]

I have watched the presidential election from 1992 to present and casted my vote in 2000 and 2004. It is hard to vote for Hillary because she is not truthworthy and never hide her hungery for power. How can you vote for someone who thinks she is the best and she is entitled to tell you what to do and claims her husband's credit as hers even there is no co-president position in this country. If Hillary dare to release her white house document so I can see what she did or messed up when she was in the white houe, then I will treat her so called 35 years's experience seriously. Opportunitist should never be given power. Otherwise, they end up abusing the power. Change can only happen from bottom to top. This is why Hillary's campaign is falling apart and she is beaten badly in Feb. Remind you, Media only picks the winner! Hillary has name recongnition and the Clinton Machine, big money etc, But she is losing. So you know who is not honest, and who's change is real change. Even white men voted for Obama in Wisconsin. Why cannot we elect the first black president? Yes, I can trust Obama but not the Clintons!. The Clintons are past. We had enough Clinton dirty politics and want a new generation leader like Obama. BTW, I am not paid by Obama campaign.

[wumiao]

DO YOU TRUST HIM?
不能。
反感只是嘴皮子上工夫的人，喜欢那些立了目标就做的人，即使有几样做不到，只要说明，仍旧是好的。
西拉里，加油！

[掸子的别院]

Obama即便是赢了民主党内总统候选人提名,也未必就能成为美国第一个黑人总统,最多也就副的.占大多数的白人的现实是不会以Obama等少数黑人选民的意志为转移的.