联储会后：市场将按照原有趋势复暖

美联储会议没有意外：承认经济走软、通涨低迷，表示升息手下留情。从客观看，联储的举动缓解了燃眉之急。股市动荡的原因之一是美国和其它国家货币政策背道而驰，带来的不确定性。美国能缓一缓，大家都安静下来看看，对市场的人心有好处。从长期看，这对商品类不见的是福音：把联储放在analyst的位置，它显然不看好油价等商品类的复苏。否则联储保持原有计划，静候商品类价格的复苏来把通涨推升，无为而治、岂不更好？

昨天盘前中国大跌，美股反应淡淡。今早苹果、波音等季报不好，股市反应平常。这基本是利空不跌的形态。油价看来在30一带站稳。几个指数底部金叉呼之欲出，最近几天跌不动和这个有关系，不像前两周，类似消息动辄三百点。中国过年关盘一周，少了一个不安因素。去年一月，也是从2060到1980往返跑几次，到一月底VIX和大盘对峙，后来一波上涨。现在折腾一个月，又快到时候了。没看见最近两天VIX涨不动？VIX的高企需要不断喂养坏消息，烂苹果之类的都喂不饱，可见市场的人心在变皮实。二月有望见SP 2000。

[fishpet1]

thank you very much

[greencardwaiting]

My guess is that gold is a safer investment if US dollar gets stronger. Plus, I dont quite understand what you dont think so of what. What I wrote was gleaned from cnbc and wsj, not my opinion.

ivlp85 发表评论于 2016-01-27 19:24:05
回复 'greencardwaiting' 的评论 : I do not think so... Then, why gold goes up so much after the FED meeting

[ivlp85]

回复 'greencardwaiting' 的评论 : I do not think so... Then, why gold goes up so much after the FED meeting

[greencardwaiting]

The Fed last year stated that they planned 4+ rate hikes this year to move the economy back to normal. However, the market has been a mess since the first day of this year. The market wanted the Fed to acknowledge the difficulty situation and take the possibility of 4+ rate hikes off the table. Unfortunately, the Fed didn't do any of that. It worries people that the Fed will stick to their original statement.

[greencardwaiting]

The stock market reacted very negatively because the possibility of 4+ rate hikes this year is still on the table.

purplecafe 发表评论于 2016-01-27 14:52:28
十二少，没想明白今天fed会后为啥跌。

[随意001]

不就是个超跌反弹吗？哪那么复杂。基本面之弱，只能说没有最弱，只有更弱。去年和今年哪有什么可比之处。

[雾灵十二少]

市场有它非理性一面，今天会后为什么跌？它想往下忽悠，谁拦得住？单纯从指数MACD看，这里深水出金叉。后面有较大可能出现几周的上升行情。能升多高，补不补2044？我的理解是天时重于地利：它给你几周时间，涨多涨少看你的造化，到点它就翻脸，顶部出死叉。论坛看空、喊暴跌的神人一个赛一个，也不看看基本面的双重性：本质尚可，股票在2000点以上嫌贵、成长空间不足，另外有了恐怖主义、商品价格等问题，市场容易受侵袭。今年总体盘势中性偏空，如果全年在20XX到18XX震荡，不奇怪。

[alongway]

Thank you for sharing!

[purplecafe]

十二少，没想明白今天fed会后为啥跌。

[Obamalin8]

联储是不看好商品类攀升，还是根本就控制商品类不让攀升呢？我倾向于后者。俄罗斯还没倒下那些小国还没破产之前不能涨商品价格。
长期看熊，联储引钱入美。短期看牛，联储安抚人心。

[tutututu]

多谢少爷。二月能补缺口吗？熊市不补缺口会不会跌不踏实？

[sandwater]

多谢少爷！