以印度为镜：看他阿三起高楼，看他阿三楼塌了（有图有真相）

印度股市和卢比的汇率受美国利率影响剧烈。我们拿印度作为可能发生的危机风向标，来解读QE tapering、国债走势、攻叙影响。隔夜印度股市大跌超过3％。继印度央行上周出台新措施抬高卢比汇率，现在卢比再次跌到68大关。

贴两个图，和一篇8月16日的旧闻。当时印度股市比今天高，卢比汇率还在当时的历史新低62。唐太宗云：以史为镜。我们要以印度为镜，观察即将来临的风暴。

India's Economic Misery Rises As Stock Market, Rupee Plunge

Indian markets went into a free fall Friday in what is being described as a ‘bloodbath’ by the local press. The benchmark Sensex, after rising for three consecutive days went into a downward spiral when the stock market reopened after Thursday’s Independence day national holiday. It lost 769 points or close to 4%, its biggest loss since 2011, ending at 18,598. According to estimates, investors lost a combined $32 billion in one day.

The mayhem was sparked by concerns over the US Federal Reserve rolling back its stimulus program and a weakening rupee which plunged to a new low of rupees 62 per dollar. The currency took a hit despite measures by the Reserve Bank of India to cap outflows. The central bank cut back annual remittances to $75,000 per person from $200, 000 that was allowed earlier and imposed restrictions on residents from buying property overseas.

Fresh curbs on gold imports were imposed by way of hiking the import duty to 10% and banning the import of gold coins, amid news that the country’s demand for gold in the last quarter ended June had risen 71%. Gold prices soared Friday as a result.

Prime minister Manmohan Singh expressed confidence in economic growth reviving in what was probably his last Independence Day address to the nation- national elections are due next year-an assurance that left investors cold. The recent appointment of respected economist Raghuram Rajan as the central bank’s governor seems to have done nothing significant so far to allay investor jitters either.

In a recent report, Nomura economist Sonal Varma stated that India’s economic ‘misery index’ seems to have reached a high with rising consumer price inflation and negative industrial growth. This calls for tougher economic policies:” Unfortunately, we see no short cuts”, said Varma.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenkarmali/2013/08/16/indias-economic-misery-rises-as-stock-market-rupee-plunge/