三三得九
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Saut: “This buying stampede in stocks is now 89 days in length, which is historic. Buying stampedes tend to last 17 to 25 sessions, with only 1 to 3 session pauses or pullbacks, before they exhaust themselves. There have been a few that have lasted 25 to 30 sessions, but it’s rare to have one go more than 30 sessions.,
This one has gone 89 sessions as of today....
“The next longest one was the 53 session buying stampede in 2010. The longest one before that was the 38 session buying stampede in 1987 that marched itself up into the August high. We all know what happened after that in October of 1987.
The history of back-to-back 90% upside volume days since 1950 is that the S&P has been better by about 6.3% one month later 83% of the time. And better by 12.8% three months later 100% of the time, except for this year. So the string did break this year because we didn’t quite make 12.8% by the end of March, but we came real close.
So this is like nothing I’ve ever seen. I’ve been in this business almost 43 years, and I’ve never seen a buying stampede last 89 days, but this one sure as heck has.”
Eric King: “You are looking for a final push here. Can you talk about that and what it would mean for the shorts?”
Saut: “I think the shorts are panicking right now. I told an institutional account on Monday, ‘Pull up an S&P chart and look at that chart and tell me if you would rather be long or short?’ The obvious answer is you would rather be long, and yet there are more than 404 million shares short on the New York Stock Exchange and those shorts are feeling the pain. I think before this is over they will have to capitulate.
So I think the S&P is going to trade higher, with very little pullbacks, into the end of this quarter, and maybe into the first two weeks of July. I believe we will get a print of 1,700 on the S&P, and then, sometime in July or August, the S&P will be vulnerable for the first time this year to some kind of double-digit percentage decline.”
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3071107.html
ZT: Market Briefs & Sentiment Outlook (MBSO)
从这篇文章看，SPX在今年2013的一月在1457处，那时总以为要掉了，做熊的可是悲剧，SPX一直涨不跌到五月2013，五月都说sell in May，但只是第一天和最后一天掉了些，其他的都只知道涨，买TZA的亏S了。直到6月，现在的七月有点小调整，市场是要继续上还是下，只能试目以待了。
comment: March, May, June, July... every month says crash, but the market just continue to go up, it does not seem to have any hope to go down.
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3116346.html
美国股市亮红灯
This one has gone 89 sessions as of today....
“The next longest one was the 53 session buying stampede in 2010. The longest one before that was the 38 session buying stampede in 1987 that marched itself up into the August high. We all know what happened after that in October of 1987.
The history of back-to-back 90% upside volume days since 1950 is that the S&P has been better by about 6.3% one month later 83% of the time. And better by 12.8% three months later 100% of the time, except for this year. So the string did break this year because we didn’t quite make 12.8% by the end of March, but we came real close.
So this is like nothing I’ve ever seen. I’ve been in this business almost 43 years, and I’ve never seen a buying stampede last 89 days, but this one sure as heck has.”
Eric King: “You are looking for a final push here. Can you talk about that and what it would mean for the shorts?”
Saut: “I think the shorts are panicking right now. I told an institutional account on Monday, ‘Pull up an S&P chart and look at that chart and tell me if you would rather be long or short?’ The obvious answer is you would rather be long, and yet there are more than 404 million shares short on the New York Stock Exchange and those shorts are feeling the pain. I think before this is over they will have to capitulate.
So I think the S&P is going to trade higher, with very little pullbacks, into the end of this quarter, and maybe into the first two weeks of July. I believe we will get a print of 1,700 on the S&P, and then, sometime in July or August, the S&P will be vulnerable for the first time this year to some kind of double-digit percentage decline.”
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3071107.html
ZT: Market Briefs & Sentiment Outlook (MBSO)
从这篇文章看，SPX在今年2013的一月在1457处，那时总以为要掉了，做熊的可是悲剧，SPX一直涨不跌到五月2013，五月都说sell in May，但只是第一天和最后一天掉了些，其他的都只知道涨，买TZA的亏S了。直到6月，现在的七月有点小调整，市场是要继续上还是下，只能试目以待了。
comment: March, May, June, July... every month says crash, but the market just continue to go up, it does not seem to have any hope to go down.
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3116346.html
美国股市亮红灯
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