GMCR狂泻让人感觉股市的一片panic 个股的cycle

昨天和今天GMCR狂泻让人感觉股市的一片panic。从新闻里没有多少信息，只知道这个公司发展会slow down，从增长70%降到增长50%，于是昨天after market股票一泻千里，一下就掉了快50%，令人唏嘘。今天本盼着能反弹，可还是继续往下掉，明天会不会反弹？明天的job 报告会好还是坏。现在对这家公司各种猜测都有，到底是反弹还是继续下泻，真说不上来，希望是反弹。下面这篇文章能不能预测明天的股云？

以下是今天的形势ZT：

Is the U.S. economy heading for another 'Spring Swoon'? That's the question a lot of economists are wondering -- and worrying about -- ahead of Friday's critical April jobs report.

Thursday brought another round of economic data confirming the economy is downshifting, the big question is how fast.

Most troubling, ISM manufacturing fell to 53.5 in April, below expectations and its lowest level since December.

"'Respondents' comments affirm the slowing rate of growth," the Institute of Supply Management said in a release accompanying the report. "In addition, they remain concerned about rising fuel costs and the impact on shipping, transportation and petroleum-based product costs."

The ISM data follows the weaker-than-expected report on first-quarter GDP, and the most recent reports on durable goods, ADP payrolls and auto sales, which all disappointed.

On the other hand, gasoline prices have fallen for two-straight weeks, the ISM services data was better-than-expected and Thursday's weekly jobless claims data showed an unexpectedly large drop of 27,000.

In sum, the data are mixed with a decided bias to the downside.

The conventional wisdom is the U.S. economy will continue to muddle along in the low 2% range, which is certainly better than recession but not nearly strong enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate.

For April, the consensus is the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs while the unemployment held steady at 8.2%. Judging by the recent data, there is downside risk to consensus although the econo-bulls were encouraged by the big drop in weekly jobless claims.

In the accompanying video, I go inside the numbers with our economics editor Daniel Gross, who notes consumer spending added 2.8% to growth in the first quarter. Considering the overall number was 2.2%, that means the business investment and government activities were an overall drag on economic growth.

In 2009, 2010 and 2011, economic growth, however modest, was based largely on a rebound in business spending and investment. The big question now is whether the U.S. consumer can take the proverbial baton and keep the recovery afloat.

编后语：GMCR 经历了几个月的风雨后现在又上涨到原位，要是hold住就不会有损失了，也算是个教训。

6月8日GMCR 76.09，每个股票都有cycle，如能长期hold，赢利可观！