古风指路：近半的工作机会将会被计算机所吞噬

【古风按】下图是英国牛津大学的两名学者Carl B. Frey和Michael A. Osborne的最新研究成果（http://www.eldis.org/go/home&id=65902&type=Document#.UqtcreKp71D）。在即将到来的工业自动化狂潮的海啸冲击之下，西方发达国家里几乎一半的工作将会被计算机所取代。其中，受创最严重的行业包罗了几乎所有的低科技服务型工种（如客服、营销、办公秘书等）。其次，低端的商业和金融管理、制造业、土木工程、矿业开发和物流运输等行业也会受到比较严重的波及。相比之下，凡是需要智慧创新的职位基本上都能相安无事，这包括高端的商业和金融管理、理工科、教育、司法、艺术、传媒、社会健康医保等等。因此，在未来的20年内，西方的后工业化社会将会进入一种严重的两极分化区：少数高收入、高社会地位、高科技创新的社会精英（不到人口的10%）和大量低收入、低社会地位、低科技的底层手动劳工（约40%的人口），当然还有更多永久失去工作机会的无业游民（其余的一半人口）。所以，您若在未来的20年内还需要养家糊口，现在就真的要充满睿智地择业了。除了下面提供的资讯，请继续阅读更详细的资料：《即将到来的自动化浪潮》
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201309/25844.html

最后，古风极力推荐下面三本有关工业自动化的书供有兴趣的网友们阅读：

The Lights in the Tunnel
by Martin Ford (2009)
http://www.amazon.com/Lights-Tunnel-Automation-Accelerating-Technology/dp/1448659817

Race Against the Machine
by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-Productivity/dp/0984725113

Automate This
by Christopher Steiner (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Automate-This-Algorithms-Came-World/dp/1591844924

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-11/your-job-about-be-handed-over-computer-probability-47

The Probability of Your Job About to be Outsourced by a Computer is 47%
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 12/11/2013

Productivity. Every employer loves it, and every employee is fascinated by it, especially if it comes in cute colors, a retina screen, and weighs under a pound... at least until such time as "productivity" results in the loss of the employee's job, which in turn makes the employer love it even more as it results in even higher profits, even if it means one more pink slip and a 91 million people outside the labor force.

With a labor force already in turmoil as millions drop out every year never to be heard from again, made obscolete by the latest technological and computerized innovation, and students stuck in college where they pile up record amounts of student loans (at last check well over $1 trillion) hoping form some job, any job, upon graduation, unfortunately the future is not bright at all.

In a recently published paper, "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation," Oxford researchers Frey and Osborne, look at the probability of computerization by occuption. What they find is shocking for nearly half of the US labor force, and especially those in the transportation, production, office support, sales, service and extraction professions.

JPM's Michael Cembalest summarizes it as follows:

Life after college: be prepared for technology to continue changing the job landscape

There’s plenty of data on unemployment rates and salaries by undergraduate major (the majors with the lowest unemployment rates and highest salaries: computer, chemical, electrical, civil and mechanical engineering, math/physics, and economics. Drama and film majors are a recipe for living at home). A more important long-run issue to think about may be how technology affects your career. Researchers at Oxford just published an analysis assessing what jobs might be computerized in the future. Their conclusion: a staggering 47% of the US workforce, spanning a range of career types. There are vigorous debates about outsourcing, but increasingly, computerization may grow as a factor affecting employment conditions. 

In The Man in the White Suit, Alec Guinness invents a suit that never has to be cleaned or replaced. London’s tailors and dry cleaners angrily chase him down in the street  to destroy his invention. They are relieved when the suit finally starts to unravel, since the fiber’s design is flawed. Productivity improvements are great things, but there might be a point at which too much power shifts to capital over labor. Anyway, when you think about a career, remember that in some professions, eventually a computer might be able to do it too, or reduce the economic value of you doing it (e.g., the impact of the internet on print journalism).

The good news: those iPad apps are cheap, and most unemployed workers - who were put out of a job thanks to one - can afford them. The bad news: anyone lamenting the return of America's employment golden age, is kindly encouraged to exhale.