陇山陇西郡

宁静纯我心感得事物人写朴实清新. 闲书闲话养闲心,闲笔闲写记闲人;人生无虞懂珍惜，以沫相濡字字真。

首页文章列表博文目录

个人资料

TJKCB

给我悄悄话

博客访问：

三岁看大，七岁看老zt

(2016-08-10 11:52:25) 下一个

美国大选：一个韬奋人的随想（2）

(2016-07-28 15:55:43) 下一个

上一篇，我预测川普会以崩塌式（landslide）击败希拉莉，成为美国的第一任韬奋总统。

我认为，不论是赞成“时势造英雄”还是“英雄造时势”，川普现在是遇到了百年难逢的好机会。今天民主党党代会结束，希拉莉获得提名，好戏开场。从现在开始，只要川普做回他自己，他应该会顺风顺水，扬帆而下，直达白宫。换句话说，他想不赢都难。

这是我作为一个资深韬奋人，对川普这个人，以及对目前国内国际形势进行分析以后得出的结论。

我今天先分析一下川普这个人。以后再分析国内国际形势。

我作为一个专业韬奋人士，需要天天跟社会各个阶层，各色人等打交道，常常需要在很短的时间里，判断一个人是否靠谱。这样日复一日，年复一年，几十年下来，多少练就了一些读人的能力。仔细总结下来，我认为读人还是有些简单规律可循的。这些规律，虽然不能100%准确，但大的方向基本不会错。

第一规律，是看家庭。先看这人的父母。流浪者说过，好人的儿子总是好人，贼人儿子总是贼。这话当然有例外，但应该还是八九不离十的。再进一步，再看这人的孩子。如果你做过父母，你就会知道，培养出一个好孩子绝对不是accident，西谚有所谓“Children speak volume for their parents。” 这也说的是家庭环境的重要性。我们虽然不能唯成份论，但成份论还是有用的。

第二规律，是看成就。这个人干过什么，干得怎么样。如果你有我这把年纪，你就会知道，一个人，要干好一件事情，是很不容易的。最近有研究表明，每件事情，要干得像个样子，有所造就，至少要有一万个小时的专心投入。而如果要干好很多事情，一路走来，最终成为人生赢家，绝对不是一个accident。

这两大规律的validity，是以另一条更深刻的原理为基础的。这个原理就是人性是不变的。所谓江山易改，本性难移，也可以说，撼山易，撼本性难。中国乡下有句俗话，“三岁看大，七岁看老。”是同样的意思。

为什么说这条原理决定了两大规律的可行性呢？原来正因为一个人的本性不容易随意改变，那这个人的家庭，成就，都不仅仅代表过去，而且还对现在和未来具有指导作用。

好了，现在说回川普。当然，如果你同意我的两大规律一大原理，你恐怕多少已经知道我的结论了。

川普1946年出生在纽约的一个中上阶级家庭。父母在布鲁克林，皇后区，斯坦特岛做房地产，主要是给中下层阶级韬奋。川普在宾大读房地产学位期间，就与哥哥参与了家庭的韬奋生意。后来两兄弟受父母之托，去到俄亥俄州的辛辛那提做一个穷人区的房屋改造项目。他们成功地把入住率从34%提高到了100%，发了一笔大财。他1968年大学毕业时，他的个人身家一跃成为$20万。那年他24岁。

今天，川普的身家是$50亿。

The rest is history.

当然，你可能会说，$50亿不多，但我可以告诉你，能在46年内，从20万涨到50亿，平均每年的return大致是25%！

25%是什么概念？我作为一个韬奋同行，给个对比。如果我每年能韬到 10% return，七年把身家翻一番，我就非常非常非常高兴了。而川普能consistently做到25% return，每两、三年身家翻一番。绝对是不容易的。对于喜欢炒股的人，S&P index 的平均return 是10%，与我韬奋的业绩差不多。

~~~~~~~~~ Fact checking -- "$20万。那年他24岁" ? http://www.politifact.com/florida/article/2016/mar/07/did-donald-trump-inherit-100-million/

Did Donald Trump inherit $100 million?

By Amy Sherman on Monday, March 7th, 2016 at 1:19 p.m.

Marco Rubio and Donald Trump attacked each other during the March 3, 2016 debate.

Donald Trump often talks about his success as a businessman creating thousands of jobs. But Marco Rubio says Trump hardly pulled that off on his own.

Among their many testy exchanges at the Republican debate in Detroit on March 3, 2016, was how much wealth Trump inherited.

"He talks about these great businesses that he's built," Rubio said. "He inherited over $100 million."

Trump interjected: "Wrong. Wrong. Wrong."

Trump added, "First of all, I got a call from my sister and brother tonight, and they said, ‘We had no idea Dad gave you $200 million.’ Believe me, I started off with $1 million. I built a company that's worth more than $10 billion. And I say it not in a bragging way, but that's the kind of thinking we need."

Did Trump inherit over $100 million as Rubio said at the March 3 debate? Trump did inherit money, but we could find no independent way to confirm the amount, so we are not rating the statement on our Truth-O-Meter. However, we will review what we do know about Trump's finances.

Trump’s inheritance

We asked a Rubio spokesman for his evidence that Trump inherited more than $100 million. (Rubio cited an even higher number of $200 million at a Feb. 25 debate.)

"The evidence would be on Donald Trump's tax returns right? Guess he'll need to shoot those on over to disprove the claim," Joe Pounder told PolitiFact. "Until then, all we have is his word that his inheritance was split amongst family members … All we know is there was an inheritance of up to $200 million. Donald Trump has never disputed the inheritance."

But news reports show that it’s a bit of a mystery how much Trump inherited from his father, Fred Sr. When he died in 1999, the New York Times reported that "his estate has been estimated by the family at $250 million to $300 million." The New York Daily News reported at the time that the estate was worth $100 million to $300 million based on family estimates.

But how was it divvied up? That’s something that reporters have tried to sort out during the 2016 race.

The New York Times reported Jan. 2 that Fred Sr.’s will "divided the bulk of the inheritance, at least $20 million, among his children and their descendants, ‘other than my son Fred C. Trump Jr.’ "

Some of the grandchildren sued, and an "amicable" settlement was worked out.

But Donald Trump received money from his father long before his death.

A National Journal writer, S.V. Dáte, estimated Trump started with $40 million in 1974 when he became president of his father’s real estate company. By one estimate, the firm was worth about $200 million. Divided among Donald Trump and his four siblings, each would have received $40 million.

But the company wasn’t liquidated that year, so Trump didn’t receive that as cash.

In 1982, after running his father’s firm for eight years, Forbes magazine estimated Trump’s worth at $200 million.

Pounder cited a couple other articles about Trump’s career and wealth or his father, but neither explained how much he inherited.

A Trump spokeswoman disagreed with Rubio’s claim but did not provide any evidence to refute it.

Rubio has a point that Trump isn’t entirely a self-made man. Trump took over his father’s business, and he inherited money when his father died. Verifying the specific amounts remains difficult.

~~~~~~~~~~`

也许你会问，那又怎样？川普有五家公司破产，还有他的Trump University被人告。你怎么不提？

你问得好。但是如果你要知道，川普有500多家公司在他的名下，其中五家公司破产，代表1%的失败率，你还会觉得川普不行吗？尤其在韬奋行业，这是极端难得的。另外，Trump University被人告，其实是很正常的。美国基本就没有没人告的赚钱公司。谷歌有人告，微软有人告，苹果有人告，连耶鲁哈佛都有人告。还是华人呢。但是，法律界有句老话：“You can always sue, but whether you can win is another matter."

~~~~~~~~~~~~``

再看看川普的家庭。

川普有过三个妻子，其中两个模特，一个演员。川普有五个孩子。三男二女。他的家庭好坏，仁者见仁，智者见智。但最近有句流行语：男人都希望有Melania做老婆，Ivanka做女儿。所以看来至少有人跟我一样羡慕他。

原文在这里：“Men wish to marry Melanias and raise Ivankas.”

分析到这里，你可能会同意我的第一个结论：

结论一：川普是人生的赢家！

对应地，川普不可能是傻子，不可能是骗子，也不可能是疯子，因为这不符我上述的两大规律及一大原理，自然也就不符合逻辑，呵呵。

剩下的疑问是，川普是不是希特勒？是不是种族主义者？？是不是sexist？？？

我的结论是：都不是。