有个性的人，展现你自己的数据，把你的信息传达出去

成为一个有个性的人，就必须向外面展现你自己的数据，把你的信息传达出去 Personalization and transparency are positively correlated. If you hide yourself completely, not to share any data, your personalized also zero. If you want to become a personality, you must show your own data to the outside, convey your message out. We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge alternating years, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, do not talk to someone to share my life, but these are just my point of view you are now. believes that in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times. 硅谷精神教父凯文·凯利：对未来商业科技趋势的11个预言   Inventory: technology trends over the next 20 years

Papers Category:Computer Papers - Internet Research Papers Post Time:2014-10-28 13:59:00 http://eng.hi138.com/computer-papers/internet-research-papers/201410/456568_inventory-technology-trends-over-the-next-20-years.asp#.VplGyNL2ZQU (Free Paper Download Center News) Recently, the spiritual godfather of Silicon Valley, Technology Business prophet Kevin Kelly at Stanford University, for more than 20 participants from China Europe International Business School for as long as three hours to share, to talk about his future 20 Major trends in business technology insights. KK wonderful views Broadcasting 1, the next one of the times is the times of oxygen in the near future, the amount of information transmitted over the wireless network we will exceed the amount of information through a wired transmission network. 2, the future, the data will be more between each person transmission of smart devices, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. By 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km . 3, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, sexual life but only your current view in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times... 4, driverless cars in the future will become your new office, you use the car received data than sitting in the office where you received more data. 5, Bitcoin really bring the feeling of subversion is an exchange, and this exchange produces the same money value. 6,20 thing after the greatest product, we have not been invented. While high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say that you now is not late, but it is already happening fundamental on what are not. Speech text 'Disruptive innovation' Professor Christensen is the concept that this famous innovator's dilemma >> << mentioned in the book. He told us that innovation in a successful body Now that is what's likely to occur .1800 , the world's most profitable companies are those companies operating sailboat, which has become a global enterprise. Then steamboat was invented, no sail, launched by a steam turbine. steamboat appear at the beginning, is an experience terrible traffic Tools - compared with Galleon small and short, manufacturing is very expensive, reliability is very poor at the time of the big shipping companies have not put it in the eye. However, despite all sorts of tricky, but there is a steamboat advantage is that you can countercurrent forward, which can only be changed for thousands of years mankind 'down the river' of history. With the development of technology, the steamship becomes cheaper, higher and higher reliability, the volume is also getting bigger. Finally, the steamboat technology is mature, not only destroyed the galleon, but also eliminated the galleon do those who rely on ocean shipping company. Disruptive innovations are initially a joke To sum up: there is a disruptive technology innovation mode: just began to appear humble when things are being overlooked can see these three lines: the top line is doing a very good industry leaders in the market, There is a very stable development curve, a curve is below the minimum consumer satisfaction, the bottom of that point, was the emergence of disruptive innovation enterprise. Initially, disruptive innovation technology than poor customer requirements, is a joke. However, when it is at a faster pace, suddenly one day met a demand point of consumers, it will generate momentum quickly become ruler of the market. For a disruptive technology start-ups, they have very struggle, the quality of work is very low, very high risk, profit is very low, the market is very small, the business model has not been paid much attention to rational businessman would not do it kind of business. Why only start-ups and small businesses will do these innovations? Because they have no choice. a very, very frightening fact is that most start-ups are finally finished it! Another opponent, no matter what industry you are doing and really pose the greatest threat to you certainly not now within the industry opponent, but you can not see beyond those industry competitors. Next, I want to talk to everyone who I think there may have areas of subversion. Oxygen from the Copper Age to Age The first fact that I want to say is this: not the substance of the fastest growing in the world, but the information it than all of our biological capacity, human productivity faster amount of information in the world to what extent needed.? 16 multiplied by 276 to describe the power of Humans create network cable lengths per second has exceeded the speed of sound. These called the information explosion, the expansion speed of information and the speed of the atomic bomb is the same. And this is a long-lasting explosion, far far from instant. By 2050, the amount of data to reach a very scary one million Zetabit. A Zetabit is one trillion G. Then this era called Zeta era, the era after the Zeta, the greater the magnitude of what used to describe information? English has Ciqiong. I talked with a lot of linguists to this problem, they have no answers. Faced with such a large amount of information, we do not even have a good mathematical algorithms to real-time processing of data. How do I use the data, the data becomes valuable things? there is there a lot of opportunities. Different commercial use different media to transmit information era. Early copper, because people with cable transmission, and then entered the era of silicon, silicon fabricated chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen in the near future, we adopted a wireless network the total amount of information to transmit information will be transmitted over the network via a wired personal data is a big future There is also a trend for future data: Now a lot of data are transmitted over intercontinental submarine cable, is transmitted between geographically but will remain in the future a lot of data processed locally, or even the total information to each family as a unit process. amount may be larger than the amount of data left in the local. and then expand a level, each of us will have a lot of data every day. In the broadcast era, the number of visitors is a big middleweight, by the broadcasting station to touch , to the age of the Internet, there blog and social media, you become a broadcasting station, you can have a lot of the audience, but the amount of information you pass less, far less than the broadcast station, and later appeared micro-channel circle of friends, passed to the relatively small audience, but a very large amount of information. I think the future is everyone passing era own information. Large sites like Amazon have a node to control a lot of the audience, which we call the 'cloud', a low level that some local transmitting station, which we call the 'fog', and the bottom is called the grid, that is, Each of us as a receiver. I predict that the next data between each person more intelligent transmission equipment, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. We own a small form LAN 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km. So, although not like the current level of technology telecom WiFi, Bluetooth technology, is not very serious, profit margins are low, the market is very small, a lot of problems, but it is not possible to subvert the future? The ability to intervene in the network is more important than ownership Another disruptive technology is the cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information that is 500 square feet level, another 500 people groups information is 500 square feet level. If these two groups networking, is able to produce the amount of data the square magnitude of 1000, far greater than the two 500-square traditional expansion of the network is very simple, even these smaller networks together into a larger network. expansion of the network to bring growth is geometric multiples. Therefore, there is a big cloud, than you put it dispersed into many small value of the network much more. From this point of view the Internet, the more the number, the cost of providing each customer you can infinitely close to zero You basically can provide a free service. With the development of cloud technology, the ability to intervene in the network than the actual ownership has to be more important. Since the Property is the foundation of capitalism, now we subvert the ownership of capital Marxism is a very important thing. All business is business data No matter what industry you are doing, you are doing business data business. Your data about customers, in fact, talk to your customers for you is equally important data through the network flow, from one format into another format data should not be defined in its storage, it should be defined by the circulation. Past data era, we used files, folders, desktop these things. After entering the Internet age, the data appears on the web page, link inside. Today we use the cloud, with a label to describe the data stream. For now, file clip, what's on the page is not the most important data. All things are in our data stream, there is information and news. My past is the key word, the key word now is that we, in the past is the key word project now the key word is the data we are in the first day of the new era of the Internet, at this moment the most important. Then we need to know how to quantify myself, I have been involved in such a project, to our own Some of the information to the data. We use a lot of equipment to carry out self quantify. Some people I know, will be installed more than 40 sensors on the body, constantly test their data. I have a bet with a person, any one as long as humans use tools that can be measured data, must be weighed in. Why do we have to track these data? There are health reasons, social reasons, improve work efficiency reasons. There are a lot of very forefront of data measurement tools, for example, there is a tool to analyze we breathe gas inside the compound, through the analysis of breath to determine your blood situation. Apple introduced the watch is kept collecting your data, processed through APP. Through data analysis, we can see that the highest efficiency of day, and in the day we what to eat, what to do things to improve efficiency. We can pass such a way to better understand themselves and improve production efficiency. 　 Now just to share an early age Now a hot topic of discussion is the ubiquitous camera surveillance. However, the Internet always want to monitor and collect data, we are hard to stop this trend. On us every phone has a camera, which means A total of 6 billion global video camera. social media flourished, let us always keep our position in the report. Spielberg and I did a movie together called << >> Minority Report, the actor has always wanted to be tracked from the environment to escape, but he found his every place advertising on the screen have changed as for his advertising. We are talking about Pornographic, prism National Security Agency, and we all know that their data has been collected unsafe. These data were collected we are unable to stop, and we should be thinking about is how to how to put patterns from data collected by one agency to control, become to observe each other between you and me. For example, the United States, police brought a camera sensor for real-time monitoring of the public, then, in turn, the public can also bring this thing to monitor Police on what we do. Personalization and transparency are positively correlated. If you hide yourself completely, not to share any data, your personalized also zero. If you want to become a personality, you must show your own data to the outside, convey your message out. We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge alternating years, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, do not talk to someone to share my life, but these are just my point of view you are now. believes that in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times. Augmented reality, a new interface and visual tracking We all know that Google glasses, and now wearable smart lenses can be directly attached to your cornea. Wearable device more than a spectacle, it may become clothes. We use it to receive data, and also to transfer data, interact with it through a variety of friction. We did a blind back wearable vest, a camera above, you can see the front, through the vibration to tell the blind how to go. These are augmented reality, I learned in college is this profession. Augmented reality with virtual objects you see in the real world together in some way, which is cool. The new interface, I demonstrated in over->> << Minority Report Tom Cruise in the operation of a computer, keyboarding is not like us, but the whole body with them to talk to a machine interaction Each part of the body that we should be able to operate a computer. If I want to do a science fiction movie, I will never let a movie protagonist use the keyboard to operate a computer, and I let him do some gestures, and it looked at the work. There are also visual tracking. It keeps track of your eyes look out of place, you know what you are looking at through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, the use of these technologies to track his eye, to see what he was looking at How, when the mood changes accordingly to change our content. As a result, we look at the screen when in fact it is also watching us so we can go based on the feedback to modify our work. Voice technology is far more than Apple's SIRI technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the screen shot is Spanish, displays became English. This is one of our last one an idea of ??interpersonal interaction, said earlier that in addition to these, he is a helmet, you take it in his head to capture your ideas, you can go through your mind manipulate the computer. Attention where it is, where is the money Attention Economy is a subversive field, where the attention, the money where it is. A lot of people are watching the mail every day, spend a lot of time in the mail, it takes up our time. So some people say that you should read messages can get the money, because you spend time in. If you have money to read e-mail, then read advertising is not more to give money? Now the advertising model is to spend money to vote for the advertising company, why not go directly to the money on your users, so that he could get the money to see the ads it? So that we can look at this man's attention where it is, and then use the money to buy his attention and let him see our advertising. This will affect other people, influential people should give more money. A new business model is that we should have the right to allow themselves to be media, in their own ads on top to make money. For example, some of the following blog will put an ad that looks pretty cool, not like an ad, but Bo Lord can get the money. Also people should have the ability to go through their own production of advertising to make money. There are consumers directly involved advertising, direct advertising, and then become socialized an advertising through their own social media. This is completely subversion of the advertising industry. Remote image and video technology Remote image is a subversive areas, such as conference calls, remote medical .Oculus is a virtual reality company Facebook has just acquired, I tried their products, I feel particularly good, is a full immersion experience, very real .Facebook spent $ 1 billion to acquire the company. In addition there are a variety of screens, including folding screens. Next screen, not just the hard one, we can even become like a book, like the screen, you can turn, you can fold the contents inside the variable . There are no screen display, such as a hologram. holographic technology is not perfect now, but later on we could also produce subversion. We now have people who are not reading, but people who read the screen. screen there are a variety of all sorts of logic. 3D printing has brought us a huge subversion is that you used to think those things hardware and software in the future will become a .3D print something out is actually a drawing, to be able to change can be transmitted, modified, data formation. So this is one we are now talking about this with a variety of Internet devices, it is also the chip inside, Americans have an expectation, re-use of 3D printing technology to make manufacturing return to the United States, but there are a kinds of argument, China is now the leader in 3D printing. Artificial intelligence is the wisdom that can be purchased Apple's SIRI is artificial intelligence, you can dialogue with it. But we see most of the AI ??is not so cool, all running in the background. It can handle X-rays, handling legal evidence, flight problems, etc. Now the graphics processing Chip's progress to enhance the ability of machine learning, there are some machines can understand your photos, tell you what these pictures are about, human interaction can also be a dialogue with you, is still in the laboratory stage. Artificial intelligence is a service that you can spend money to buy through artificial intelligence to start a company, you need to use artificial intelligence to a particular field to increase the intelligence, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, in fact, the artificial intelligence into . It appears the car will affect the traffic state, the impact of this industry and the courier driver industry people and the real revolution: The cars in the future will become your new office, in the future you use the car received data than you take the data received in the office more. Electronic money is a form of communication Money is important, but money is a form of communication now. All the same field with the nature of communication, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcast, elaborate or identify all communication with nature. There is a cryptographic currency called Bitcoin , means that the communication is encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, currency trading is not invisible electronic money generated related to communication, is able to track, in fact, is a kind of communication. So bits subversion coins really bring a sense of communication, and this produces the same money exchange value. Raise public equity revolution US now has 450 public raise the platform, resulting in some very successful projects, it has now become a big business, a lot of money flocked to this area. A lot of people use this site is not intended to raise public financing, but with this things to do market research, to look at their business plan will not be popular. Recently the congregation to raise equity to be recognized, and this is a very big revolution. If we are through to the 1980s, when people tell, 30 years later you will have to Wikipedia, there will be a variety of cool technology of today, no one would believe it. Looking to the next 20 years is unimaginable to us today The only thing I know is that 20 years after the greatest product, we have not been invented, and you as an entrepreneur, it is necessary to invent these things! Although high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say, you is not late now, but what has happened now is simply not anything (Source: Central European Institute of Business Management, compile: Free Paper Download Center

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凯文·凯利预言未来20年商业科技趋势 近日，硅谷精神教父、科技商业预言家凯文·凯利在斯坦福大学进行了长达3个小时的分享，畅谈他对未来20年重大商业科技潮流的见解。本文根据演讲内容整理。 　　未来将最有可能出现破坏性创新和颠覆的领域在于以下几个方面： 从铜时代到氧气时代 　　我想说的第一事实就是：这个世界上增长最快的不是物质，而是信息。它比我们所有的生物产能，人类的生产力都要快。世界上的信息量大到什么程度？ 需要用16乘以276次方去描述。人类每秒钟创造的网线长度已经超过了声速。这些就叫信息爆炸，信息膨胀的速度和原子弹爆炸的速度是一样的。而这是一个持 久的爆炸，远远不是一瞬间。 　　不同的商业时代使用不同介质传递信息。早期是铜，因为人们用电缆传输；然后进入硅的时代，硅制造成芯片。我认为下一个时代是氧气的时代。在不久的将来，我们通过无线网络来传输的信息总量就会超过通过有线网络来传输的信息总量。 个人数据才是大未来 　　未来数据还有一个趋势：如今很多数据都在洲际间通过海底光缆来传输，是地理位置之间的传输。但今后很多数据会留在本地进行处理，甚至以每个家庭为单位处理的信息总量可能会比留在本地的数据总量还要大。 　　再扩大一个层面来说，我们每个人每天都会产生很多数据。在广播时代，观众人数是一个很大的量级，由广播台去触及；到了互联网时代，出现博客和社 会化媒体，你成为了一个广播台，可以拥有很多受众，但你传递的信息量比较少，远远不如广播台；后来出现了微信朋友圈，传递给相对少的受众，但信息的总量非 常大。我认为未来就是每一个人传递自己信息的时代。 　　到2020年，超过2/3的信息传送距离不会超过1公里。那么像WiFi、蓝牙技术等目前虽然不是电信级别的技术，不是很严肃，利润很低，市场很小，问题很多，但是不是有可能颠覆未来呢？ 介入网络的能力重于所有权 　　另一个颠覆性的技术就是云技术。在一个500人的团体里，信息量是500平方等级的；另一个500人团体的信息量也是500平方等级的。如果这 两个团体联网，则能产生1000的平方量级的数据量，远远大于两个500的平方。传统扩大网络很简单，就是把这些小的网络连起来，变成一个更大的网络。扩 大网络规模带来的增长是几何倍数的。所以，有一个很大的云，要比你把它分散成很多小的网络的价值更多。 　　从这个互联网角度看，人数越多，你提供每个客户的成本就向零无限靠近，你基本上可以提供一个免费的服务。随着云技术的不断发展，介入网络的能力要比实际拥有的所有权要更重要。由于物权是资本主义的基础，现在我们在颠覆所有权，对资本主义就是一个很重要的事情。 所有生意都是数据生意 　　不管你现在做什么行业，你做的生意都是数据生意。你关于客户的这些数据，其实跟你的客户对于你来说是同样重要的。数据可以通过网络流转，从一个格式变成另一个格式。数据不应该以它的存储而定义，应该由它的流转来定义。 　　过去的数据时代，我们使用文件、文件夹、桌面这些东西。进入网络时代之后，数据就出现在网页上、链接里。今天我们用云，用标签、流来比喻数据。 对现在来说，文件夹、网页什么的就不是最重要的数据。所有的东西都在我们的数据流里，有信息、有新闻。过去的关键词是我，现在的关健词是我们；过去的关键 词是项目，现在的关健词是数据。我们处于整个互联网新时代的第一天，此时此刻最重要的。接下来我们就需要了解如何量化自己，我也一直在参与这样的项目，把 我们自身的一些信息去数据化。 现在只是分享时代的早期 　　现在讨论很热的一个话题就是无处不在的摄像头监控。然而互联网总是希望去监控和采集数据，我们是很难去停止这个趋势的。我们每一台手机上都有一个摄像机，这意味着全球一共有60亿台摄像机。社会化媒体的兴盛，让我们总是不停在报告我们的位置。 　　个性化与透明度是正相关的。如果你完全把自己藏起来，不对别人分享任何数据，你的个性化也为零。如果你想成为一个有个性的人，就必须向外面展现你自己的数据，把你的信息传达出去。 　　我们现在还处于传统和前沿交替的年代，很多人说：我不会去跟别人分享我的医疗数据，财务数据，不会去跟别人分享我的生活。但这些只是你现在的观点。我认为，今后人们会去分享这些数据，我们现在还处于分享时代的早期。 增强现实、新交互界面与视觉跟踪 　　大家都知道谷歌眼镜，而现在的可穿戴智能隐性眼镜可以直接贴在你的角膜上。可穿戴设备不止是眼镜，它可能变成衣服。我们用它来接收数据，同时也 在传递数据，通过各种摩擦跟它互动。我们还给盲人做了一个可穿戴式的背心，上面有摄像头，可以看到前方，通过振动去告诉这个盲人怎么走。 　　新的交互界面，我在《少数派报告》中演示过。汤姆克鲁斯在操作一台电脑的时候，并不是像我们这样敲键盘，而是浑身都用起来去跟一台机器互动。我 们身体的每一个部分都应该可以操作一台电脑。如果我要再做一个科幻电影，我绝对不会让电影主角用键盘来操作电脑的，我会让他做一些手势，看上去就是在工 作。 　　此外还有视觉跟踪。它会跟踪你的眼睛看的地方，知道你在看什么。通过视觉跟踪，我们还可以捕捉他的情绪，利用这些技术去跟踪他的眼球，去看他在 看哪些内容的时候情绪变化如何，据此去更改我们的内容。结果就是，我们在看屏幕的时候，实际上它也在看我们。我们就可以去根据这样反馈来修改我们的作品。 　　语音技术也远不止是苹果的SIRI技术，比如说翻译。有一种实时的翻译工具，画面拍的是西班牙语，显示出来就变成了英语。这个是一个我们最后的 一个人际交互的一个设想，就是除了前面说的这些，他是一个头盔，你带在头上它会去捕捉你的想法，你可以通过你的想法去操纵电脑。 注意力在哪儿，钱就在哪儿 　　注意力经济是一个颠覆性的领域，注意力在哪儿，钱就在哪儿。一种新的商业模式是，我们应该有权利去让自己成为媒体，在自己上面放广告去赚钱。比 如一些博客的下面会放一个广告，看上去挺酷的，不像是一个广告，而博主能拿到钱。另外人们应该有能力去通过自己去制作广告赚钱。有消费者直接参与的广告制 作、直接进行广告宣传，然后通过自己的社会化媒体变成社会化的一个广告。这彻底颠覆了广告行业。 远距离图像与视频技术 　　远距离图像也是一个颠覆性的领域，比如电话会议、远程医疗。Oculus是Facebook刚刚收购的一家虚拟现实公司，我试过他们的产品，感觉特别好，是一种全浸入式的体验，非常真实。Facebook花了10亿美元去收购这家公司。 　　除此之外还有各种屏幕，包括可折叠的屏幕。未来的屏，不仅仅是硬硬的一块，我们甚至可以把屏变得跟书一样，可以翻，可以折，里面的内容可变。还 有一些没有屏的展示，比如说全息图。全息技术现在不完美，但以后可能也会对我们产生颠覆。我们现在已经不是读书的人，而是读屏的人。屏里面有各种各样的逻 辑。 　　3D打印给我们带来的一个巨大颠覆就是，你以前认为硬件的那些东西，在未来都会变成软件了。3D打印出来的东西其实就是一个图纸，是能够更改的 能够传输、修改的，是数据形成的。那么这就是一个跟我们现在谈到的这个各种各样的互联网设备一样，它里面是也芯片的，美国人有一种期望，利用3D打印技术 重新让制造业回归美国，但也有一种说法，中国现在是3D打印的领袖。 人工智能是可购买的智慧 　　人工智能是你可以花钱购买的一种服务。通过人工智能去创业的公司，需要将人工智能运用到某一个特定领域去增加智慧。比如无人驾驶汽车，其实就是 把人工智能的智慧放到车里。它的出现将影响交通状态、影响快递这样的行业和司机行业的人。而真正的革命是：这些汽车今后将变成你的新办公室，今后你用汽车 接收的数据将比你坐在写字楼里接收的数据更多。 电子货币是一种交流 　　钱很重要，但钱现在是一种交流。所有跟沟通性质相同的领域，比如说分享、合作、跟踪、广播、阐述或者是识别，都带有交流的性质。有一种加密的货 币叫比特币，意味着这种沟通交流也是加密的。比特币是一种加密的货币，但并不是隐形的货币。电子货币产生的交易都跟沟通一样，是可以跟踪的，其实是一种交 流。所以比特币真正带来的颠覆是一种交流的感觉，而这种交流产生了钱一样的价值。 股权众筹的革命 　　美国现在有450个众筹平台，产生了一些非常成功的项目，它现在变成一个很大的生意，很多钱涌到这个领域。很多人用这个众筹网站并不是为了融资，而是用这个东西去做市场调查，去看看自己的商业计划书会不会受欢迎。最近众筹股权被承认了，这是一个非常大的革命。 易鹏：为什么硅谷会在美国诞生？ 　　硅谷是全球科技创新型企业最密集的地区，也是全球风险投资产业最发达的地区，是无数怀揣梦想，想要创新、创业的人们的心中圣地。它自然也是这次盘古智库“欧美创新、创业调研行”的重点调研地区。 　　从地图上看，你是找不到“硅谷”这个地方的，因为它不是一个地名。“硅谷”主要是指加州北部旧金山湾以南的圣克拉拉（Santa Clara）山谷及其周边的部分区域。上世纪七十年代，当地的产业主要是与由高纯度的硅制造的半导体及电脑相关的，所以它就有了一个亲切的昵称“硅谷”。 　　现在当地发展成为全球高新科技企业和风险投资产业的重点聚集地区，硅谷这个名字在全球也就变得家喻户晓，而它的本命圣克拉拉山谷，反而没多少人 在意了。这次在硅谷调研的过程中，我就一直在想硅谷形成的原因，他是多方面综合因素的结果，这里面有历史的偶然，但也有历史的必然。 　　１．硅谷的诞生离不开美国的整体环境。综合来看，美国的教育非常发达，能够为创新提供足够的新技术和源源不断的研发型人才；国家法制健全，重视 知识产权保护，创新型的小公司不用担心自己的专利和模式被大公司剽窃；美国文化中有很重的英雄情结，人们敢于释放梦想，相信这个制度能够让平凡人成功，不 会有太多的后顾之忧；美国是移民国家，使得它的文化多元化程度高，包容性非常强，人们不怕失败，社会包容失败。这些都是创新、创业必须要求的环境条件和人 文品质。 　　２．美国有非常发达的航空交通网和成本很低的公路运输网，使得经济发展所需的要素能够在全美国自由而内充分的流动。这样一个环境，使得美国能够 在全国形成合理的产业分工，而在局部地区形成足够的产业集聚效应。比如，在全美范围内有纽约无可争议的金融中心，波士顿地区生物产业的集聚，德州地区有电 器、石油装备制造业的集聚，硅谷地区的IT、TMT产业的集聚，洛杉矶星光熠熠的文化娱乐产业的集聚。硅谷单独看是一个有充分集聚效应的产业区，放在整个 美国看又是美国整体经济环境中有机的一环。  硅谷汇集了世界上领先的科技企业 硅谷汇集了世界上领先的科技企业 　　３．我们也要考虑硅谷这个地区的个性因素。硅谷最初的发展是因为斯坦福这个高校，而斯坦福又是一个产学研结合的最好高校之一。实际上，斯坦福之 所以产学研的工作做得好，还是因为当年学校经费紧张，而其创始人斯坦福先生的遗嘱规定“永远不许卖出学校土地”，逼得管理层没有办法了，拼命在学校的技术 转化和土地出租上动脑筋。这才形成了最初的“高校产业园区+高校技术转化”的发展模式，形成了硅谷的雏形。这样的发展方式使得硅谷在技术创新中，起步就领 先，一路领先，建立了强大品牌和吸引力，现在已经形成了强烈的马太效应，短时期内其他地区没法与之比肩。 　　４．另一个显著特点就是人口都是“移民”而来。最初，美国西部的淘金热潮，把东部一批最富冒险精神的美国人吸引到了旧金山。尽管这部分人大部分 是失败了，但是他们的冒险精神和开拓的勇气传承了下来。随着时代的推移，西部又成为了大量东欧移民、中国移民、印度移民的主要落脚点和聚集地。这些人的到 来，给硅谷带来了勤奋的气质和更加多元化，更加包容的文化氛围。这些独特的精神气质使得硅谷地区自然成为了创新和创业的乐土。 　　５．硅谷自身非常幸运的一点是，它正好赶上了上世纪七十年代以来技术革命的“风口”。随着上世纪70年代微处理的发展，电脑的体积进行了大幅度 缩小，这个技术把世界带进了“网络时代”。而硅谷当时在研发能力储备上和技术路径选择上，又全力以赴的向这个路径发展。既可以说是斯坦福的技术和硅谷的产 业引领着这个时代，也可以说是这个全新的时代成就了硅谷的辉煌！微型计算机技术的发展和网络时代的到来是人类历史上的必然，但是这个技术在硅谷形成集群产 业还是具有一定的偶然性的，这和硅谷的硬件条件有重要的关系，但在很大程度上也是硅谷自身的幸运。 别忘了给硅谷的气候点个赞 别忘了给硅谷的气候点个赞 　　６．还有一些其它因素，也是硅谷形成的重要原因。第一，硅谷历来不是美国政治的中心。美国政治充满了各种利益集团的博弈和权力之间的斗争，离政 治中心太近的地区，人们更倾向于靠利益交换和妥协来解决问题，其文化氛围和思维方式必然与硅谷这里的完全不同。而硅谷远离政治，尊重市场，靠的是创新来引 领社会发展。第二，硅谷发展的初期，其土地成本和商务成本非常低廉，给初创企业提供了一个非常好的成长环境。尽管现在看来，硅谷的综合成本已经不再便宜， 但是他的品牌已经形成了，产业集聚效应也非常强大，未来发展是分享品牌和技术红利的时期。第三，美国加州相对来说日照充足，气候温暖，环境宜人，也是一个 适合人们生活的好地方。必须承认，一个好的自然环境，也在一定程度上能够激发人们创新的灵感。 　　７．而硅谷之所以能够成为一个长达一百多公里的“谷”，和美国这种去中心化的城市布局有很大关系。美国的产业主要靠市场的力量自动聚集，新来的 企业既想分享产业聚集的优势，又希望降低成本，最理性的选择必然是在“核心区”的周边地区落脚。这就使得硅谷能够蔓延式的发展，最终形成了一片很大的产业 聚集区。在这点上，中国的创新创业园区会受到更多的政府规划影响，往往选择一点突破，树立典型。这就使得很多比较好的创新园区失去自由蔓延的空间，限制了 其进一步发展。 　　中国也有很多地区和园区在创新、创业上作出了显著的成绩，但是在全球范围内比较还是和硅谷、海法、筑波这样的世界级创新中心有着巨大的差距。我们不断探究硅谷的成因，实际上还是希望能够给中国的创新、创业园区的发展带来一定的启示。