正文
US:
GDP is healthy, tax and unemployment claim extension will be the catalysts for the rally. Corporate profit grew 6.5% over the prior quarter. GDP for 4th quarter expected to exceed 3%. Inventory drawdown also a good setup for 4th quarter 2011 and 1st quarter 2012.
China:
Manufacture survey downed to 48, meaning the policy loosening is imminent. Inflation rate is reduced to 5.5% in Oct. Soft landing is near its end. Next year, with new leadership, stimulative measures will come out gradually.
Europe:
Awful bond action for Spain short-term bond this week. Government bond yields except Germany close to historical high after EU creation. Euro bond idea is getting traction. Europe is always reactive to the debt crisis. As a whole, they are not as bad as media depicted. ECB still has room to cut the interest rate from 2%. Germany and France grew 2% and 1.6% respectively last quarter. EFSF may get ratified quicker by the EU parliaments with leveraged bonding buying power. Greece will get last tranche of the first bailout package next month, which will be positive.
US Market is in a bottom building process because of EU drama and post earning season softness. This is the time to create new positions or add to existing ones. Historically, 4th and 1st of the year, tech performs well.
GDP is healthy, tax and unemployment claim extension will be the catalysts for the rally. Corporate profit grew 6.5% over the prior quarter. GDP for 4th quarter expected to exceed 3%. Inventory drawdown also a good setup for 4th quarter 2011 and 1st quarter 2012.
China:
Manufacture survey downed to 48, meaning the policy loosening is imminent. Inflation rate is reduced to 5.5% in Oct. Soft landing is near its end. Next year, with new leadership, stimulative measures will come out gradually.
Europe:
Awful bond action for Spain short-term bond this week. Government bond yields except Germany close to historical high after EU creation. Euro bond idea is getting traction. Europe is always reactive to the debt crisis. As a whole, they are not as bad as media depicted. ECB still has room to cut the interest rate from 2%. Germany and France grew 2% and 1.6% respectively last quarter. EFSF may get ratified quicker by the EU parliaments with leveraged bonding buying power. Greece will get last tranche of the first bailout package next month, which will be positive.
US Market is in a bottom building process because of EU drama and post earning season softness. This is the time to create new positions or add to existing ones. Historically, 4th and 1st of the year, tech performs well.
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