空色一体
千江有水千江月，万里无云万里天。
萨克斯：阿拉伯的青年与动乱
发自纽约——
其实早已有众多因素促成了今日中东的乱局：长达数十年的腐败与专制，教育程度不断提高且经由网络串联起来的社会，以及飙升的全球食品价格。最后，整个中东地区（以及撒哈拉南部非洲以及南亚地区）人口数量的快速增长也带来了巨大的人口压力。(这是内因）
比如说，埃及的人口已经在胡斯尼·穆巴拉克的统治下翻了一倍有多，从1980年的4200万增加到了2010年的8500万。考虑到埃及是一个 人口主要聚居于尼罗河沿岸的沙漠国家，这个数字就更加使人惊叹。由于无处扩张，埃及国内的人口密度逐渐上升到危机的临界点。首都埃及目前挤进了2000万 人，城市内部极为混乱，居民接踵摩肩，基础设施严重不足。
同时迅速的人口增长意味着不断膨胀的青年人数量。事实上有超过一半的埃及人年龄低于25岁，而埃及跟世界上其他几个国家一样，正在面对着极端艰巨——而且很大程度上无法满足——的就业压力，无法确保为这些青年人提供体面的工作岗位。
就业的增长无法追上人口增长，那些勉强创造出来的职位又无法提供体面的薪水。北非和中东地区青年人（15-24岁）的失业率高达30%以上。而这些沮丧的失业和半失业青年如今都涌上了街头。
其实青年人高失业率的问题并不仅限于发展中国家。在美国，总体失业率约为9%，但18-25岁青年人的失业率高达19%。而这只包括那些事实上 正在打散工或者求职的年轻人，另外还有一些沮丧的青年人直接就退出了劳动力大军：他们不上学，不上班，也不去求职。这些人倒不会上街抗议，不过大多会最终 走上犯罪道路。
全球的劳动力市场如今早已实现了联网。来自美国或者埃及这些不同国家的青年人必须与来自中国和印度的青年人同台竞争。中国那些低薪水要求但生产 力更高的制造业工人以及高质量的基础设施（公路，电力，港口和通信设施）已经为全球竞争设定了新的标杆。相比之下，埃及，美国以及其他国家那些低技术工人 要么提高自己的生产力来挣得一份体面的工资，要么只能忍受极端低下的薪水或者彻底失业。
因此创造一份薪金合理的体面职位就是形成国际竞争力的核心。这要求用更好的教育，专业的在职培训以及完善的基础设施来武装本国工人。当私人部门承担起创造大部分就业岗位的时候，公共部门必须为高生产力创造所需的基础条件，而这是一项艰巨的任务。
只有一个高收入地区为其年轻人和经济做出了相对完善的安排：北欧，包括德国以及丹麦、芬兰，挪威和瑞典这四个斯堪的纳维亚半岛国家。这些国家的公共教育素质极高，而青年人在由学生向职场专业人士转变的过程中经常能参与一些实习课程，在这方面德国尤其有名。
在发展中国家，主要的进步都来自于那些强调教育，政府大力投资基础设施并认真实施在职培训的地方，而韩国堪称其中的佼佼者，极高的青年入学率和 青年的大量就业使其在一代人的时间内就从一个发展中国家跃升成为一个高收入国家。更重要的是韩国这一成就在中国周边的那些激烈竞争的邻国之间取得的。
相反美国是一个失败的例子（除了那些出生于高收入家庭的青年以外），那些在富裕家庭成长的孩子无疑能得到良好教育并在取得学位后拥有良好的职业 预期。但随着富裕阶层成功迫使政府减免税务以及政府支出削减，其他贫穷及工薪家庭的子女比以往更难以得到高质量教育，此外美国政府也未能提供培训机会及足 够的基础设施。其结果就是贫穷及工薪阶层的年轻人中的失业危机不断蔓延。
北非以及中东国家应该向东亚和北欧学习，努力避免美国式的失败，如果民主要在埃及，突尼斯，及其他阿拉伯国家生根发芽的话，改革派的新政府就必须将解决年轻人失业问题列为头等大事。
中东国家应当详细制定战略去提升教育的质量和年限，投资于职业培训，建立私人部门实习制度并发展中小型企业。他们还应当找出哪些是私人部门生产力发展所需的关键基础设施项目。而两者必须协同合作加深区域贸易整合，并因此建立一个更大规模的市场。
那些被赶下台的独裁统治者——突尼斯的本·阿里，埃及的穆巴拉克，还有时日无多的利比亚统治者卡扎菲上校——都从国家和公众手中盗取了数十亿美元的财富。这些非法所得的金钱应当被追回并投入到一个专门用以改善青年就业的特殊基金中。
此外，随着原油价格上升到100美元/桶，海湾国家正享受着一笔巨大的财富。但他们也应当通过伊斯兰开发银行成立一个特殊基金来资助中东地区的 青年人就业发展。事实上，利用该区域丰富资源的最佳方式莫过于确保本地青年的生活可以通过教育，技能和高质量的职位而得到充实。
If democracy is to take hold and flourish in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere in the Arab world, the new reform-minded governments must make the youth unemployment crisis their highest priority.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs
NEW YORK – Many factors underlay the ongoing upheavals in the Middle East: decades of corrupt and authoritarian rule, increasingly literate and digitally-connected societies, and skyrocketing world food prices. To top it off, throughout the Middle East (as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and most of South Asia), rapid population growth is fueling enormous demographic pressures.
Egypt’s population, for example, more than doubled over the course of Hosni Mubarak’s rule, from 42 million in 1980 to 85 million in 2010. This surge is all the more remarkable given that Egypt is a desert country, its inhabitants packed along the Nile. With no room to spread out, population densities are rising to the breaking point. Cairo has become a sprawling region of some 20 million people living cheek-by-jowl with inadequate infrastructure.
Rapid population growth means a bulging youth population. Indeed, half of Egypt’s population is under age 25. Egypt, like dozens of countries around the world, is facing the extreme – and largely unmet – challenge of ensuring productive and gainful employment for its young people.
Employment growth is simply not keeping up with this population surge, at least not in the sense of decent jobs with decent wages. The unemployment rate for young people (15-24 years old) in North Africa and the Middle East is 30% or more. The frustration of unemployed and under-employed youth is now spilling over into the streets.
The problem of high youth unemployment is certainly not confined to the developing world, however. In the United States, the overall unemployment rate is around 9%, but among 18-25 year olds, it is a staggering 19%. And this includes only young people actually at work or looking for work. Many more have simply become discouraged and dropped out of the labor force entirely: not at school, not at work, and not looking for work. They don’t protest much, but many end up in prison.
The world’s labor markets are now interconnected. Young people in countries as diverse as Egypt and the US are in effect competing with young Chinese and Indians for jobs. China’s low-paid, reasonably productive manufacturing workers and high-quality infrastructure (roads, power, ports, and communications) has set the standard for competitiveness globally. As a result, low-skilled workers in Egypt, the US, and other countries must either raise their productivity enough to compete at a decent wage, or accept extremely low pay or outright unemployment.
So creating decent jobs at decent wages is at the heart of being internationally competitive. That requires equipping workers with a good education, strong on-the-job training, and supportive infrastructure. While the private sector must create most of the jobs, the public sector must create the underlying conditions for high productivity. That is a tall order.
Only one high-income region has done a reasonably good job of preparing its youth, and its overall economy, for tough global competition: Northern Europe, including Germany and Scandinavia (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). In these countries, public education is excellent, and the transition from school to work often involves programs like the apprenticeships for which Germany is especially famous.
In developing countries, the main advances are found in countries that emphasize excellence in education, public investment in infrastructure, and serious on-the-job training. South Korea is probably the leading success story, with superb educational attainment and strong employment of young people having taken it from developing-country to high-income status within one generation. And South Korea has accomplished this feat in China’s intensely competitive immediate neighborhood.
The US, by contrast, is a case of failure, except for youth from high-income households. American children raised in affluence succeed in obtaining an excellent education and have good job prospects after a bachelor’s degree. But, as the rich have successfully pressed for tax cuts and reductions in government spending, children from poor and working-class households are far less likely to receive a high-quality education, and the US government has failed to provide for training or adequate infrastructure. The result is a growing youth unemployment crisis among poor and working-class youth.
The countries of North Africa and the Middle East should learn from East Asia and Northern Europe, and take pains to avoid the failures of the US. If democracy is to take hold and flourish in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere in the Arab world, the new reform-minded governments must make the youth unemployment crisis their highest priority.
Middle Eastern countries should elaborate strategies to improve the quality and increase the length of schooling, invest in job training, establish private-sector apprenticeships, and develop small and medium-sized businesses. They should identify key infrastructure projects needed to ensure private-sector productivity. And they must work together to deepen regional trade integration, thereby creating a much larger market.
The deposed authoritarian rulers – Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Mubarak, and soon Libya’s Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi – stashed away billions of dollars stolen from the public treasury. This ill-gotten money should be recovered and put into a special fund for youth employment.
Moreover, with oil prices back above $100 per barrel, the Gulf states are enjoying a bonanza. They, too, should create a special fund for youth employment in the region through the Islamic Development Bank. There can be no better way to use the region’s resources than to ensure that its young people’s lives are enriched by education, skills, and high-quality jobs.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals.
