从投坛2021组合谈选股选基金的误区
- Use past performance to pick stock or funds
Perfect example: ARK Funds. ARK funds were red hot last year. Probably the best performance funds last year. However, it performed very poorly this year. This is very common in managed funds. This is also a lesson when you need to pick a fund for your 401k. The best performer last year maybe the worst choice however most people will pick it that way. I would highly recommend you choose the worst performer last year. You might end up way better.
- Invest in stocks because of concept
Perfect example: AI. From paper, the concept is good however the reality is bad. The company missed everything in last few quarters. And there is no sign of it turning around. From concept to reality, it takes a long time and lots of risk. I know people will use TSLA as example, however the turning point for TSLA is its Shanghai factory. Without it, it might already bankrupt. Even Musk admits it. As you can see that it is not late to invest in TSLA after amazing run last year. We got another opportunity this year and much safe. At the moment, you might get another low risk set up.
- Invest in stocks that are called next Amazon or AAPL of something or somewhere
Perfect example: JMIA. It is called Amazon of Africa if I am right. But the truth is that it is very hard to become another AMZN. Most time, it is just a dream never come true. If you remember another example, SHOP and BIGC. When SHOP is there, it is very hard for BIGC to gain any traction. The pressure from first successful company will be tremendous. This is also why NFLX is such a successful model even it faces competitions from all the late comers. TSLA is in same situation. Late comers will have hard time to catch up.
- Invest in old fashioned companies without any catalyst
Perfect examples: MRK/BMY. Yes, MRK had a covid drug came out a few months back but it is not good compare to PFE’s. It popped then dropped. BMY was in a downtrend for almost a year. These old-fashioned companies are having hard time to move a needle. You will have to wait for a long time for them to turn around (remember MSFT? Too them 30 yrs to turn the ship around). So if there is no clear catalyst (like PFE got the vaccine), you’d better off these names. Best name came from their peer who can move fast (ABBV, ABT).
- Good companies may have tough time
Well, many times some good companies will face some tough time (SQ, PYPL, DIS) because of virus and delayed economy open-ups as long with the competition. At some point, we must do something to weather the down turns (for example puts, cut back positions). However, keep in mind that these companies have good management team. After a period of difficult times, these companies may come back quickly.
如果能在选股当中尽量避免一些误区和陷阱，从长线看账号的表现一定不会差。
