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Charting the market (4/19/2011)

(2011-04-19 15:53:22) 下一个



I only throw the above chart here. It doesn't mean market will move like I planned (not until S&P breaks the neck of 1340). S&P seems forming another inverse H/S pattern here. It is on daily chart, so not as reliable as on weekly chart. Drop under 1295 will mean such interpretation is wrong.

Almost all other major index are around support level. TA indicators are in over sold condition.

I am not saying that we are out of wood, but here is the place to take a chance (low risk set ups).

Earning season is kicking in high gear. Market is likely to be volatile. But best stocks will find footing and rebound. When these best stocks rebound, rebound likely to be sharp (to give people who are willing to take risk good reward).

So pay very close attention to those reports. Buy stocks that reported excellent earnings give you the most gains such as HAL and TITN as we saw. Some stocks may be so cheap, a little good news would send it much higher, such as INTC and AAPL.

No matter what market does in short term, some fundamentals don't change:
1. the world still have to face food shortage.
2. the world still have to face energy problem.
3. US still has to face big debt problem.
4. Japan has to rebuild itself.
5. the world still need technology.
......

I would also point out that you need to be careful about alternative energies, especially solar. 2nd half of 2011 is likely to be very tough for solar companies. The negative in FSLR is likely to bring down entire sector. I am hoping these can rebound so I can short them again.

(Next month, we will face the old wisdom "Sell in May". we have to re-evaluate when the time comes. Maybe we will see a false break out from H/S pattern then move into another downturn. But it is too early to tell).


 

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