2018 (2)
金价终于跌破1220关卡，要如何操作？
因为今天联储会主席叶伦的演讲会带出什么信息很难猜测，俺估计会偏向近期加息的言论。因为到昨天，已经有约7位联储会官员发表言论支持加息，这是一种造势！若内部没有达到共识，应该会听到至少几个不同的声音。所以叶伦要温和一些也不容易，反而会造成市场的混乱。
但是对于DUST的操作上，可以趋于保守。金价盘前跌破1220元的强支撑，达1215元，可以乘高卖出70% 的DUST，大约在17.5-18.5元分批卖出。任何下跌至15-16元之间时，可以买进补回。黄金向下趋势已成，虽然会有几次反弹，只要在1235-1240元以下，就不用担心。金矿股指数GDX应该继续下跌。目前的价位还是反映金价在1260-1300区间的价位。
天然气暴起暴落需要担心吗？
如果不知道基本面，不明白虚实，很容易被这种突然暴起的涨势吓倒，以为突然发生什么事故，比如像几周前在Pittsburg的天然气管线爆炸引起天然气价格暴涨一样。从5份钟图形看，幅度大的涨或跌，都是主力金主（MM）在炒作。是某个MM下一个大的market order 扫单。如果是上涨，就是把所有在不同价位等待要卖的单子全买了。由于在很短的时间，上涨的幅度大，通常会触发期货散户的停损点，自动平仓造成连锁反应，让涨势更大。若是没有后续的继续炒高动作，那么MM这样的扫货动作是一个突击的动作，为了触发散户的预设停损，而自己在更高的价位卖出，吃散户的仓位。通常这样突击行动会发生在交易量比较少的时候，比如开盘后半个小时内，或收盘前的一个小时到15分钟前。因为交易量小，所需要砸的金额就不需要太大，就可以造成很大的涨/跌幅。
昨天收盘前，1：50-2：15PM，天然气期货业突然暴升，从下跌约1.8%变成涨0.5%， 然后从2：16-2：33PM，又跌回去，回到下跌1.5%到1.8%的价位。今早东部8：15AM，7月份的天然气期货的价位在2.096附近，突然在30分钟内反弹到2.16，这幅度相当于3.05%。对期货来说，是相当的大。若是以规定的10%（10倍杠杆）持仓位，3%的价格变化就相当于33%的亏盈了！所以有许多炒期货的散户，通常会设停损点在约1%。这些散户会因为这么大的波动而被迫停损买进，而搞突击的MM会在预设的2.5%到3% 的价位上分批卖出获利，即使最后因卖出把价位压下，还剩一些没获利或赔钱的，总体上还是获利。
支撑天然气下跌的有：
1。Henry Hub的现货天然气昨天继续下跌，从1.77元/MBTU跌至1.75元/MBTU。
2。昨天6月份期货到期收盘价为1.92元/MBTU。7月份的期货因Contango价位高出6月份0。2元（以2.12算），相当于10%。 与现货价差超过21%。 也就是若有人在现货市场买进天然气，租用储存空间，大约一个月的租金为0.05元/MBTU，需要存两个月。在期货市场卖出7月份期货合约，到时候交割是会有约14%的盈利的。所以期货的价位应该向下修正。
3。下周的报告是利空。需求量减少了3.6%，而供应量只减少了约0.4%。 所以下周四的报告库存增幅会在78-92BCF之间。
===================================
跟贴补充：
回复 '等待是金' 的评论 : 天然气的操作也应该改为保守一些，因为看到MM多次这样突击。未来一周内DGAZ逢跌3%-5%时买进，从买价涨了7%-10%时，最好卖出70%。像今早开盘前有到18元以上，是可以卖出的机会。
金价在1210-1212元会有一点支撑，虽然最后会跌破，但今天可能还不会跌破。所以DUST的操作还是要保守一些。今天最好是在17.5-18.5之间分批卖出。可以保留10%-25%。，万一跌破1210。
回复 '无弹窗' 的评论 : Rig Count俺觉得会继续减少，特别是最近有几个中型的产油商宣布破产，在这种倾向之下，要增加钻油台不容易。原油俺觉得不用担心，特别是最近来回波动，有涨有跌的情况，这其实对原油持续上涨有帮助，不易产生过度超买的情形。缓慢的上涨才能够走得远！
Last two month, when WTI price up, nature gas price did not follow up. The main reason is not fundamental as you think. The reason for hedge fund to hold down the nature gas price is because they long the bond for many nature gas company during the bankruptcy bargin stage. They hold down nature gas price, so they can gain maximum share of company after bankruptcy re-emergcy. Company like Line, SOC, BBEP, and many other all file nature gas heavy company. They try to get CHK as well. Seems CHK escaped that
May 9, 2016 4:38 AM ET|16 comments | About: The United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (UNG), UGAZ, DGAZ, BOIL, GAZ, KOLD, UNL, DCNG
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Summary
Natural gas has been known as the widow-maker trade for good reason, it rarely pays to go long.
David Einhorn has a great long-term track record, but an abysmal short-term one. We think the long-term track record is the indicative one.
Einhorn just released his Q1 2016 investor letter which revealed that he has gone long natural gas and exactly why he did that. To us, his reasoning seems sound.
David Einhorn has a terrific long-term track record. His short-term performance has been abysmal.
In 2015, his Greenlight Capital Partners Fund suffered a decline of 20%. That is nearly 40% worse than Greenlight's long-term average annual gain over the past 20 years.
Some of the mistakes that Einhorn made in 2015 can't simply be chalked up to the stock market misunderstanding his companies. He has made some mistakes.
In particular, he picked a real stinker when he made SunEdison (OTCPK:SUNEQ) one of his positions. That stock didn't underperform - the company went bankrupt. That was a terrible decision, but over a 20-year run at Greenlight, the errors have been few and far between.
We believe the long-term track record and process at Greenlight to be more representative of Einhorn's ability than one (albeit major) mistake.
In Greenlight's first-quarter 2016 investor letter, Einhorn revealed a new position that we found particularly interesting. We attribute that partially to our contrarian nature, but also to the fact that we have seen other astute investors poking around the same idea. We think it is worth exploring further.
Einhorn's new position is a long macro call on natural gas, specifically the 2017 and 2018 calendar strips at an average price of $2.71 and $2.84 respectively. If natural gas (NYSEARCA:UNG) prices end up being on average above those two price points for 2017 and 2018, Greenlight is going to make his investors some money.
Why Natural Gas Now?
Einhorn states his thinking behind his bullish bet on natural gas in a few points. We think he makes a compelling case.
#1 - Natural gas prices aren't high enough to justify drilling
Einhorn believes that natural gas prices are simply too low for companies to turn profit drilling new natural gas wells. From everything that we have read, we think that Einhorn is right. At current natural gas prices, none of the shale gas plays even breakeven. It makes no sense to drill shale wells today.
Source: Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) Presentation
#2 - The industry has actually responded with a huge reduction in drilling
Just because something doesn't make any sense doesn't mean that people aren't going to do it. An examination of the current level of drilling for natural gas in the United States though does confirm that the amount of drilling has plummeted.
Since just the end of 2015, natural gas rigs in operation have been cut in half. That should start showing up in production levels in 2016.
#3 - As existing wells deplete, supplies should fall
While shale gas production has turned this industry upside down, it does have its drawbacks. Perhaps, the biggest one being the incredibly high rate that production from shale wells declines in its early years.
Source: Penn State
A typical shale gas well will see its daily rate of production decline by 60% to 70% in the first year. In the second year, another 30% decline is the norm. If the industry isn't continuously drilling, production is going to fall. As we know from the rig count, there is a lot less drilling going on.
#4 - Excess inventory is just 2% of annual production, which is already declining
As Einhorn points out, the inventory overhang of excess natural gas does not amount to a major amount of annual production. Should production growth stall, natural gas demand growth would eat away that excess inventory.
If production actually not just stop growing, but fall while demand grows, then this market would tighten in a hurry. As we can see in the chart below, production in 2016 has finally started to fall.
Source: EIA
A Natural Gas Shortage Within A Year
As a result of his analysis on natural gas, Einhorn has taken a long position targeted at both 2017 and 2018. He believes that normal weather combined with what he expects production to do will lead to a natural gas shortage within a year. That would make now the perfect time to be targeting natural gas related opportunities.
We like Einhorn's natural gas view. Weather is a huge influence on this commodity though, so we would prefer to play it in a manner that can let us be wrong about the exact timing of the turn higher in natural gas prices.
As investors, we always want time to be on our side.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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回复 '钟小麦' 的评论 :
有人说是天气变热了，还有人猜测没有数据支持这么高。关键是现在看不到一点点回落的迹象。到底是补仓还是止跌，我是彻底懵圈了。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
天然气要到2.4？ 出什么事了？ 又有山火， 管道爆炸？
还有我，一直没有敢买UGAZ，就等着大跌呢，不是说储量超过历史记录了吗。 可能有啥变动了，我看老外在讨论明天应该到2.40 ，我了个去。 我DGAZ @16.5呢， 不知道加不加仓。
他几天前说了，dgaz 最多中上周会下调到14.5，目前不知道什么变故，已经跌破14.00了。 相信很多人都急切地盼着雅阁出来解惑。
刚才又在14块的地方再次加仓，看六月中旬前会不会有好的结果。
如果不是，真的不埋怨雅阁，个人的决定。 大不了就砸手里，多等一段时间。目前只不过把最近两个月多利润折进去罢了。
还是感谢雅阁最近两个月的操作指南。
俺的博客被俺关了。 俺比较懒， 炒股都没时间， 博客更没时间去打理了。
因该在股海任俺行里面。 你可以到里面去翻翻。呵呵呵
你的UWTI上的仓位俺是不敢搞的。 呵呵呵。 俺一般都是几百s.
还有机会 2016-05-27 13:23:42 回复 悄悄话 回复 '天堂的月光' 的评论 : 我们刚开始在DGAZ上犯了类似的错。自己检讨了很多（无弹窗的博客上有记录）。吸取教训吧。
************
能给个link吗？我在无弹窗的博客和股海任俺行都找不到相关的内容。
自从俺深刻自我反省后， 现在3倍基本是赚的多， 亏的少。 亏的大部分还是在UVXY上。 所以俺准备和UVXY拜拜。 这个预测恐慌情绪俺搞不定， 每次买入UVXY给俺带来的都是恐慌。 呵呵呵。 俺以后准备TRY在UVXY涨起来的时候去SHORT它， 这样买入的就是希望了。 哈哈哈哈。
刚开始是想试试， 后来看到往下掉得快， 就想一路加仓把价格减下来， 减少损失， 结果都被拖下水，全军覆没。 没料到连涨一星期。
俺准备把UVXY抱着过周末， 下次记住一点， 千万千万不要满仓或重仓做3倍。 在想到你可以赚多少钱之前要先考虑好你能承受多少亏损。 呵呵
我割掉一半。
如果大盘是小涨或小跌的话， UVXY 还是会继续下跌。
雅歌1: 下周一放假，周二是5/31日，若是大盘要下跌，就是这一天。6/1-6/3日是月初401K的新资金入场时，很可能会上涨。也许今天和下周二若是不跌，就要把UVXY割了，转为买SVXY。
Thank you Yage. Now Yellen's speech is out. If 5/31 大盘要下跌 really happens, do you think 大盘 will changes its course and keeps going down for a little while? if not, we should take this last chance to get out of UVXY. What price do you think to aim for, still $14? My UVXY is @14.5, I will be more than happy just to get out even if possible.
If UVXY keeps going lower on 5/31, will UVXY come back up someday or it will go to zero? My position is not that heavy anyway.
现在掉到11了。
我今天是否要割掉一部分？ 等它再降的时候再加回去， 把价格拉下来点。 可现在又跌到 11.10左右了。
@天堂的月光：
俺仓位不大，先留着。 实在不行， 等底部加3倍仓然后抢反弹。
好， 握到下星期二。
今天UVXY 还是没有涨？ 继续拿到下个星期？
若经济、就业市场持续改善，联储徐缓而谨慎地加息是适宜的。 她一向如此。
耶伦结束了在哈佛大学拉德克利夫学院的讲话
耶伦∶从美联储监控的数据来看，经济增长似乎正在加快，若经济、就业市场持续改善，联储徐缓而谨慎地加息是适宜的。
耶伦∶若美联储太快加息以至引发衰退，则回旋余地有限，而财政政策应在提振经济方面发挥更大作用
耶伦∶美联储曾短暂考虑过负利率，但此后没有继续关注这一问题。
耶伦：在未来的几个月中，再度加息可能是“恰当之举”。道指闻讯跳水0.1个百分点，美元指数拉升0.2个百分点。
俺有个问题， 可能有点傻。
多出来没地方的气可以烧掉或排掉吗？ 呵呵
利多油 空气？
Prior Actual
N. Amer. Rig Count 448 447
U.S. 404 404
Gulf of Mexico 23 23
Canada 44 43
U.S. rig doesn't change.
美国油服贝克休斯：美国5月27日当周石油钻井减少2台，至316台。
美国5月27日当周天然气钻井增加2台，至87台。
美国5月27日当周总钻井持平于404台。
上周换数据误差大，可以理解。这周误差比上周还要大，怎么回事阿？
supply demand weekly
May 13, 2016 73 80.2 65.9 100.1
May 20, 2016 71 79.6 63.7 111.3
按照供需的数据，20号的库存量增加应该比13号的多阿，怎么还少了2BCF?
这数据可靠不？
或者是钱数
fidelity
choose sell ,
order type choose trailing stop loss($)
trail amount $ put 0.5 $ .
fidelity
choose sell ,
order type choose trailing stop loss(%)
trail amount % put 1 %.
顺便打个广告。 欢迎你来 股海任俺行 群来逛逛。 那里啥菜鸟问题都行。 俺们一般在雅歌博文里尽量问最关键的问题或一些操作上的建议来。 呵呵。 这样雅歌兄和大家看起来都方便些。
sorry, 俺字打错了， 被。 呵呵。 。
请问单倍激发是什么意思呢？
trailing stop loss.
choose % or $.
多谢回复。 另俺80％的DUST 刚才自动追踪订单倍激发， 17.66卖出。 成功获利脱出。剩下20％观望。 非常赞同雅歌兄在目前黄金下跌时的DUST谨慎操作想法。 俺等黄金反弹后会继续高空。
这东西只适合跟风，不适合抄底.不像SVXY(XIV)可以长持。
非常赞同对DGAZ的保守操作。 昨天进的DGAZ昨天高位已卖出获利。 多谢。
等DGAZ价位合适会补进。
另下午RING COUNT的报告不知如何， 俺担心会利空油。 UWTI需要设自动卖单来获利保护吗？
多谢及时提醒。 俺已设好DUST自动追踪订单， 80％仓位。
我是怪我自己，本来可以赚点走人的，一贪心、一犹豫，机会错过了，后来又加了一次小仓，现在不想再投钱了。看看吧，六月应该有机会的，大盘也不可能老是这么涨下去，总有回调的时候，不过是不能再贪心了，教训啊！
@13.5 大家一起等吧，不行就割了。 心情不太好。
SVXY握久一点也不怕，但是UVXY最多下个月就会处理掉，这个东西是会归零的
俺有一点13的， 早上又买一点11， 拉倒12。 等机会跑掉。 不过俺仓位很小， 5％。
2月时， Suxy 输太多， 这回输不起了。 这个跌起来，就像无底洞似的。 有你们的鼓励， 就继续死撑吧。别像SUXY 一样， 跌到最低时， 割了。
我以后再不敢买Suvy, uvxy了， 2月大跌时捡SuXY， 从49 捡到 30， 撑不住了， 在30左右彻底割了，没有听雅歌的话撑下来， 账户损失大半。 这回，看见UVXY 这么便宜， 开始也没多想， 就顺手捞了点， 结果后来就杠上了， 越跌越捡， 恐怕这回又要把账户所剩的钱损失大半， 就没有钱炒股了。
可能最大的问题就是满仓。呵呵
谢谢你。
满仓， 从13.10开始， 越降越不服气，一直捡， 均价 12.60. 知道这个东西危险， 一直没敢买过这个， 这次给杠上了。
UVXY进价多少？仓位？
我这回死撑，惨了。 股市大涨， 加息好， 经济好， 全球的钱都往美国跑， 胀死。
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/52780/80185.html
@天堂的月光
俺刚才看到UVXY 11.0x, 呵呵， 顺手买了一点。
快受不了了， UVXY 还在跌！
另现在可以买UWTI吗？