美国股市正在转折点,今天联储会官员的DOT PLOT会决定股市是否继续上涨或下跌。
如果联储会官员的DOT PLOT平均在1-3之间,表示今年加息次数在1-3次之间,市场会非常欢迎,股市会继续再涨3%-5%。 若是平均在3.5以上,市场就会大跌,标普500有可能再次回测1900的支撑点。这一次是不会加息,市场预估加息的概率为零。市场预期最早再次加息会在6月份,与俺去年12月份预估的一样。
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原油昨天API的数据利多,所以盘后反弹了约1.2%,相当于UWTI涨了3.6%。 但是,EIA报告还不见得就是利多。EIA的报告今天若没看到减产,反而稍微增产的话,原油价格未来很难继续上涨,即使报告里的原油库存增加的比预期的少。这表示可以乘原油上涨时做空。
最好,最利多的情况是总产量减少3万-5万桶,原油库存增幅低于3百万桶。这样的情形可以立即买进UWTI。美国原油产量若有继续减少,配合每周五Rig Count的减少,会逐渐形成利多形势,有可能未来会突破到40元以上。否则,39元就是目前原油无法突破的顶。
关于目前原油为何会在35元以上,主要是大家突然发觉伊朗其实无法像他们宣称得这么快增产50万桶。俺在一月份就分析过伊朗的产量在约3.3百万桶,其实伊朗早在2014年核能谈判开始后,就从日产2.85百万桶增产至约3.3百万桶。所以市场其实到目前为止,还没看到伊朗宣称的50万增产,这不过是过去伊朗囤积的约3千万-5千万桶原油进入市场,这一次性的量,市场还可以接受。(以下的图形是俺三个月前使用的图形)
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天然气空头主力还在,ACCM/DIST显示在-30万附近。若是市场认为利多,这个指标首先要接近零和变成正数,表示主力已经撤离,如上周俺提出原油主力撤离的图形一样。请看下图。
从四月份到5月份,天然气每周库存增加量会开始加速增长,因为早春的寒冷会逐渐消失。今年的天气看来,4月份就会有5月份的温暖,非常的利空。今年天然气消耗的量没有去年的多,供需失衡的状况不必比去年差,这就是为什么天然气价格会跌至1996年的低位,而且会继续下跌的原因。
|
2015 Weekly Gain |
2010-2014 5 years Avg(BCF) |
2011-2015 5 years Avg(BCF) |
Mar 13, 2015 |
-43 |
-48.8 |
-71.2 |
Mar 20, 2015 |
11 |
-27 |
-20.6 |
Mar 27, 2015 |
-18 |
-18.6 |
-24.8 |
Apr 03, 2015 |
15 |
4.2 |
-15.4 |
Apr 10, 2015 |
63 |
34.4 |
21.4 |
Apr 17, 2015 |
89 |
45 |
48.4 |
Apr 24, 2015 |
83 |
56.4 |
53.6 |
May 01, 2015 |
74 |
69.6 |
58.4 |
May 08, 2015 |
112 |
80 |
81.4 |
May 15, 2015 |
92 |
84.4 |
90 |
May 22, 2015 |
112 |
97.4 |
98.8 |
May 29, 2015 |
132 |
94.6 |
99.2
|
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重要跟帖补充:
关于原油:
这种情形可以等DWTI在140-150之间买进。UWTI到24元附近就应该卖掉了。
关于天然气:
俺估计明天天然气的库存量增减幅在-28 到-40BCF, 可是http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/ 的估计是-1 BCF! 若是真的-1BCF附近,就是非常的利空。
回复 'archer08' 的评论 : Cheniere在Sabina Pass的冷冻液化天然气的出口量还是太少了,从去年年底12/28到3/8日,总共累计的出口量为4.0BCF。通过管线出口到墨西哥的量还是持平,没增加多少。只有进入夏天,才会需求量增加。
股市变幻,能够对大于错就很不错了。要每次都对那才是神仙了。
Svxy也是卖早了。不过经过几个cycles以后就会有经验和信心了。dust今天把前两天挣的基本上都还回去了,气上基本上也持平。
也感谢别的高手关心,希望喊一声的时候有一定的分析,不要只是事后的show off.
雅歌的大局和细节都掌握得这么好,真希望你有机会能定期给我们推荐一些中长期的投资方向,也方便不能白天盯盘或不愿DT的朋友。
歌曲也很好听。
好词好曲好人好雅量
奇人奇事奇才奇歌声
横批:股乐齐名
谢谢雅歌老师一贯的冷静!今天美元确实跌得有点离谱。US dollar index跌到几乎是52周最低点,而美元相对于其它货币现在显然不是52周最差。这两天美元应该反弹,对应黄金原油下跌。
美联储报告这么重要的信息选在下午两点出简直是坑爹,市场只剩下两小时反映,常常反映过度。
做人,要懂得感恩。虚心学习,少点抱怨,慢慢积累经验吧。
所以不要以目前的价格去说事,不要象我一样目光短浅。
雅歌老师辛辛苦苦做很准确的建议,你们这帮孩子不要不懂事!!!!
好词好曲好人好雅量
奇人奇事奇才奇歌声
横批:股乐齐名
跟着你做的人,估计已经输光了。
建议你以后在最后加一句:市场是不会跟着我的预测走的,纯分析而已。
回复 '蓝叶飘' 的评论 : 是的,当看到SVXY45.05的价时,心里一阵感慨,好准呀.
回复 '小鱼小虾007' 的评论 :
原DUST 涨涨涨幅过6.8!!!!!
I totally agree with what you said. DUST may not go up to 6.3, not even 5.9, my guess is 5.5~5.6 at best. Like you said, NUGT is in control. People jump on DUST because of it will "rebound" soon. Not that case this time. Gold might have a one week brief retracement to 1200~1220. Then NUGT will head up to 70~80 like you said. Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts.
Best,
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I see you guys all pretty excited that S&P 500 crossed 1950 mark. But your DUST is not out of wood yet, we shall see what happens tomorrow. My hunch is 1220 area are strong support for gold at this moment. Any drop back will be bid up so far. ES may stall at 1960-1968 which is not far from today's close. Another short setup is promising in the area. You dohave a chance to get off DUST with less loss tomorrow instead of hoping for 6.30. I just don't see gold to test 1172-1180 as "Yage" posted on his blog. I have nothing against this great man doing excellent charity works for so many newbies. But his latest calls on gold are worth grains of salt to me. I can understand more people jumped on this DUST rebound train. Well, we shall see what tomorrow brings. Have a good one and good luck tomorrow.
Be cafeful what you are wishing for may not pan out the way you have hoped.
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谢谢你花时间写这么多给我,非常感谢。
下一步我要做调整了。的确DUST 到6.3 之前会先到2.5
希望以后能常常想你学习。 再次谢谢
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Last night was my first post to reply and I lost it somehow.
Ok, try to be brief this time. I tried to say play DUST for a rebound at this moment is against trend. It will be easier to play NUGT instead.
Reasons:
1. Gold is like oil, many factors can influence its move. You can say inflation/defaltion, geoplotical, supply/demand, currency(US dollar), Europe, blah blah... It boiled down to one word--confidence of people.
2. Gold was in a down trend since September 2011 high. Recently it breaks out on upside of this "long" term treadline. $HUI cross its 158 mark for a significant break out. GDX showed some heavy buying lately. Hedge funds as a group has been shorted gold heavily for last few years. All these events are meaningful for gold movement upward at this juncture.
3. To play gold at this moment, U is the play in my opinion. 1307 is next resistance in gold. It will test it at least once. DUST was 6.39 when gold test 1190 area after run up to 1260, and NUGT was 42.11 at the same time. Look at it now, DUST at 4.42 and NUGT at 57. If gold goes to test 1307, DUST will go down to 2.50 area and NUGT will be 80+ range. That is my rough caculation.
4. For your DUST, if you have fund available, then hedge with NUGT is one way to limit loss on your DUST position. Otherwise, you have to cut loss on your DUST position if you see a reasonable price and switch to NUGT for a run up. I don't think you will see 6.30 of DUST before you see NUGT of 80. That is I am not looking to see gold to test 1172-1180 area before we see 1307 first. So DUST is doomed for next 2-4 weeks. You make your decision.
I play DUST/NUGT, HGD/HGU, XIV/UNXY, HVU/HVI pairs if ETFs mostly. I have been played gold and silver stocks since 2006. I am in Canada.
Cheers,
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没有收到你写的长篇呀。 不过还是谢谢你。我这次栽在DUST上了。由于相信金价会回调,DUST会复上8.6,结果给套了。
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Last night I replied to your question of why 2.50 for DUST. At the end of typing, somehow it disappear on my screen. Did you receive it? Please confirm.
First time for me to do this so I am not sure what happened.
Cheers,
大盘继续上,黄金避险的没有理由啊
谢谢!知道了。DWTI的进价要再降低吗?
回复 'zd3y' 的评论 : That is depend on the market moving. It may hold for long if the down trend no change.
回复 '小豆' 的评论 : UNG 是单倍的, ugaz是3倍的
多谢,那么DNG就是对应UNG的,是吗?
That is depend on the market moving. It may hold for long if the down trend no change.
Thanks! I will start to short oil.
回复 'zd3y' 的评论 :
zd3y 2016-03-16 07:18:49 回复 悄悄话 just shorted more DGAZ at 23.18, it immediately go down.
Order Number C16NFBZZ
Status Filled at $23.1801
Symbol DGAZ
Description CREDIT SUISSE NASSAU BRH VELOCITY SHS 3X INVERSE NAT GAS ETN LKD S&P GSCI NAT GAS INDEX
Action Sell short
Order Number C16NFBZZ
Status Filled at $23.1801
Symbol DGAZ
Description CREDIT SUISSE NASSAU BRH VELOCITY SHS 3X INVERSE NAT GAS ETN LKD S&P GSCI NAT GAS INDEX
Action Sell short
谢谢!那就好。的确现在的基本面不支持NG涨。
谢谢!