2018 (2)
昨天盘后API原油库存的数据非常利空，导致了WTI价格继续下跌的主因。
原油今天继续下跌有两个原因：
1。昨天盘后API公布的原油库存的数据非常利空，原油库存增加了71。M桶，超过了市场预期的一倍，导致了WTI价格继续下跌的主因。
2。沙特油部长嘴贱，访问德州时说OPEC不会减产，油价要靠市场自动调节。虽然这是事实，他可以不用这么说。他其实可以说还在与其它的成员国商讨，希望非OPEC国家也能够减产等等，不需要把未来减产的可能性完全排除，让俄罗斯，沙特，卡达等四国过去一周商议冻结产量的效果完全消失。（原油每降一美元，沙特原油的收入每天就少了一千万美元）。
俺认为API的数据有一些高估，按上周EIA的报告，原油库存增加了2.1M桶，炼油厂使用率88.3%，进口平均7.9M桶。日产量平均9.135M桶。假设炼油厂使用率和产量不变，库存要达到增加7.1M桶，除非进口增加到7.9M+（7.1M-2.1M）/7=8.61M桶，这进口数据实在过高。好像过去周报告里最高的平均日进口量是8.3M桶。同样的条件，若以平均日进口量8.3M来算，库存会增加2.1M+（8.3M-7.9M）*7=2.1M+2。8M= 4.9M桶。
所以俺认为EIA的报告会比API的报告好，库存不应该增加这么多。不但如此，炼油厂使用率照理说应该继续升高，而不是下降。因为炼油厂休整期已近尾声。还有48州应该继续看到减产，而不是增产。所以即使进口增加到8.3M桶，市场估计库存量增加在3.3M附近是合理的。
因为换成四月份的期货，目前的价位比三月份的价位高约2美元。所以过去29美元的期货价位，就是目前的31美元价位。目前跌破了31美元，相当于跌破了过去的29美元价位。这对股市大盘有相当大的影响，欧洲盘目前下跌，美股期指下跌也是因为如此。本来因原油有支撑止跌，好不容易稳定的股市再次动荡。目前只能盼望EIA的报告出来后是利多，原油可以止跌回升一些。
所以UWTI俺认为目前可以在1.28-1.35买到，设停损点在1.23。未来几天的目标是1.6-1.7。
若昨天有买DWTI做对冲的，可以把DWTI在290-300之间卖出，最好是在EIA报告出来前。盘前DWTI最高到299。XX元。
油能够被操控吗？ 每次看到大盘被油拖累要崩掉的时候， 石油借着一点消息， 甚至就是谣言， 突然就涨起来， 把大盘拉上去。 有谁在背后通过石油来控制大盘吗？
?今天大盘和油都突然拉回上攻，究竟是什么消息或原因呀？
我想雅歌是不会回答你的。到了这个位置，还是耐心等D吧，买U风险太大了。菜鸟浅见。
今天UWTI给搞出来了， DUST也给搞出来了 （买@4.30，SL@4.22 开会没法盯盘，否则应该不一样）
我现在也面临同样的问题，进点都挺好的，但总是拿不住，稍微往下一调整，就吓得赶紧跑，这几个星期在油上（U和D）都是这样，看来还得学习提高。
我也是这样， 止损设的小得话，止损后， 就大涨。 不设止损或止损设的大些， 就老往下掉，割在很低处。
以下是TD的分析，仅供参考。
TD Securities Energy 2016 Outlook
$30 Oil Just Doesn't Work
TD Investment Conclusion
For more details, please see our full report to be released later today. We assume an
oil price deck that is directionally bullish into next year (approximately 40% above
the strip). We have several reasons for adopting commodity price forecasts that are
above the futures strip.
First, and perhaps the most important, is that oil play economics across the WCSB are
effectively zero (at best) at current pricing. Acknowledging that economics across
parts of the U.S. and abroad are also challenged, we believe that producers will act
rationally and continue to cut spending to below-sustaining levels. Using our
Canadian forecast as a directional indicator of what lower spending has on base
production, aggregate volumes could be affected by ±15% by the end of the year.
Next, we believe that most of the negative fundamental and geopolitical headlines —
i.e., the outlook for oil sands supply growth, additions from rising offshore Gulf of
Mexico volumes, and the expected Iranian barrels, coupled with the potential for
softening global demand — are priced in. Lastly, as we have shown in the past, the
forward curve is not a strong indicator or predictor of future pricing.
Meanwhile, since we started writing this research report, the price of oil may have
bottomed on January 20 (up about 25% since). With equities arguably pricing in about
$45/bbl today, we expect investors to have another buying opportunity on a pullback.
We are comfortable with contemplating higher oil prices in the future, but are less so
around the timing of a recovery, given the geopolitical environment. With this stage
being set, we are engaged in trying to provide clarity around how one can invest in
Canadian E&Ps today, to: 1) be positioned for a recovery and 2) not take on too much
company-specific risk in order to be certain that one still owns a going concern if oil
prices remain in the US$35/bbl range into the end of 2017.
Given all of this, we believe that the following themes and items are key for 2016:
? Spending programs trend below sustaining levels in the WCSB
? Conventional oil production declines across the basin
? Slowing improvements in capital efficiencies
? Operating cost structures around fixed and variable (netback impact)
? Importance around capital allocation (dividends versus capital)
? M&A activity outlook and access to capital
? Reserve reports and inventory levels
The foundation for our Overweight sector stance is still very much premised on
prudent capital allocation efforts and balance sheet preservation. We are slightly
biased toward oil producers over natural gas, but highlight pockets of gas
opportunities given our long-term bullish gas outlook.
We are maintaining our Overweight stance and have broadened our investment matrix to focus on companies
that we believe provide relatively low risk energy investments out to 2017. We believe that these names
provide investors with optionality to higher commodity prices but staying power if commodity prices remain
subdued. Our broader thesis remains biased toward companies we see as are best-positioned to weather the
storm of low commodity prices, and are focused on prudent capital allocation decisions around return on
capital (i.e., investment at asset level) rather than return of capital (i.e., dividends).
我的操作有问题，胆子越来越小。
油MM实在是可恶，硬是把我们这些小散甩下了车。
同问。也有相同的感觉。
说得太好呢，特意上来支持雅歌
Second it. 雅歌 is the best expert on OIL. GS should hire him.
Very great comment, I totally agree with you.
you made a great point, btw, your english is good.
非常感谢一早就能看到老师的分析！老师辛苦了！