新年之际的世界经济形势，中国将出手帮助葡萄牙

With an improving U.S. economic outlook, coupled with more stable sentiment over Chinese growth and European debt, investor appetite appears to be rebounding and major stock indices in the U.S. and Europe are trading at levels unseen since the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008. North Korea’s decision to back off its aggressive posturing over South Korea’s military exercise in disputed territory has also eased worries that conflict in the region would escalate and involve heavyweights like China and the U.S. in economically disruptive war.

Moody’s stated this week that it may cut Portugal’s bond ratings, so Europe’s sovereign debt woes haven’t disappeared overnight. However, European stocks continue to rebound, suggesting that investors now believe that the debt crisis has largely been priced in and it will not stop the region’s economic recovery. New cause for optimism was also given by China, which announced this week that it has taken “concrete steps” to help some EU members battle the sovereign debt crisis and pledged continued support. For example, it was reported that China is willing to invest 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) to 5 billion euros in Portuguese government debt in the first quarter of next year.

As the largest foreign-exchange reserve holder in the world and a major exporter to the EU, China clearly has interest in seeing Europe avert disaster. The mere possibility of Chinese support is a tonic for the European markets.

After giving stocks and commodities a boost last week by not raising interest rates despite the inflation rate hitting 5 percent, China—a key driver of global markets nowadays—looks to be alleviating concerns that government tightening measures will derail its growth, affecting economies worldwide. According to the latest data from China’s General Administration of Customs, Chinese imports of copper rose for the first time in three months in November, signaling a rebound in demand. Copper prices have reached record highs in recent trading, and, at about 40 percent of total demand, China is the top copper consumer in the world.

According to some officials, China also has plans to raise gasoline and diesel prices in order to help refiners absorb higher crude costs and to maintain supply, the third such adjustment this year. China has a mechanism in place that allows its National Development and Reform Commission to revise fuel prices when the price of crude changes more than 4 percent over 22 working days – and in the last month, crude oil futures on the NYMEX have risen by about 9 percent. China had experienced diesel shortages in certain regions this year; with its hunger for resources, we expect its state oil companies to aggressively pursue acquisition opportunities abroad and to boost domestic supply. China’s continued growth means commodity prices will keep rising.

In Canada, November inflation readings within the Canadian central bank’s target range are easing concerns of overly fast rising prices and making it more likely that benchmark short term interest rates will be kept at their current 1 percent mark. Developed countries face the difficult two-pronged dilemma of relatively slow economic growth and higher input costs driven by rising emerging economies’ demand. Fighting one problem could lead to worsening the other. The milder inflation reading last month will give Canada more leeway to keep interest rates low. Its rich natural resources—which it will export at higher prices when commodities become more expensive—will provide a buffer from the impacts of inflation, but with economic growth still fairly tepid, it’s to Canada’s benefit to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for now.

The other resource-rich developed nation that we recommend, Australia, looks to be in a similar situation to Canada. With lesser inflationary pressures combined with some signs of consumer caution, the Reserve Bank of Australia appears unlikely to raise rates through the early parts of next year—barring unexpected changes in the economy. As the largest exporter of coal, iron ore, and a number of other minerals, Australia stands to reap gains from a likely increasingly bullish market for commodities, but like Canada, to shore up its domestic economy, Australia will not risk over-tightening.

（from Dr. Stephen Leeb's e-mail)