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成功与失败 (11/20/2006 - 12/01/2006)

(2006-12-01 23:39:18) 下一个


Following are all the trades I made during 11/20-12/01. Some are very good
and some are very bad. Every time I analysis my past trades I learn a lot of
new things from my mistakes and success.






1. LVSLS:
   -$1980

On 11/29 LVS tried to break out from $93 so I opened 20 call option at $2.45.
It closed at $93.01 which was OK. The next day it followed through in the
 morning but it failed the breakout by closing at $91.56. I should have closed this
 trade on that day. System told me to do so since it was a breakout failure but my
emotion again won. This time I violates my number 1 rule and I paid another 2K
 tuition. I closed this trade at $1.50





What does the system say?



11/29 is RS2 which is not wrong to open this trade but 11/27 is a reversal day
 on heavy volume. 11/20 is another BKFS. I should've closed the trade on this day.




2. GPYXR:  -$650



On 12/01 morning when I saw the market was terrible and this one had a sell off
on heavy volume I opened  put position immediately. It also broke down its
 previous pivot point at $193. The reason I covered it is that GS rallied back
when it touched the small support line at $191.50. Even I lost money but this
 trade is OK. I will buy the put back again if GS would break down $191.50 next time. 





What does the system say?



It has several BS0 states during the past few days so I should wait for a BKFS
 signal to enter this trade. I have a bad habit in my trading experience. When
 general market drops one day I'll sell all my positions. Actually each stock has
 its own style of movement. Some time I need to consider them individually.




 

3. UMULJ: $20

On 11/21 I opened 20 call options when I saw it tried to break out from the blue
 resistant line. Next day I closed with very small profit. I really forget why I did this.
Maybe my emotion controls me again.






What does the system say?



I should not open this trade since there are no buy signal from the system.




4. NYXLT: $320

On 11/21 I bought 20 call options when it broke out but I took the small profit
again which was the biggest mistake I made during this month. If I hold on to the
 next day or until the BKFS signal I would have another double return or even
 tripled. I really want to kick myself for this bad trade.





What does the system say?



I followed the system to buy the breakout which was good but I did not hold
until there was a sell signal.





5. TOLLF $1721

I made two good trades of TOL. One thing I really want to find out is that 
whether it's good to roll the call from DEC 30 to Jan 32.5.
I'll find some time to calculate the results. It looks like if I bought back TOLLF
 on 11/29 and sold on 12/01 I would have a double. But TOLAZ only gives
at most 50% return.






What does the system say?



System gives very clear signal for this stock. Maybe I should hold it since it's
 a PB2 state. Again general market scared me.



6. TOLAZ: $1855





7. ATILP$6260

Same thing happens on ATI trades. This time rolled up twice. Is this really good?
 If I hold my initial 40 ATILP options I should make more profit than what I have now.






What does the system say?





8. ATILQ: (-$2510 + $4720 ) = $2210



9. ATILR:  -$150




Conclusion: 'cut loss short and let profit run' is still the number
1 rule. I should cut loss on LVS quick and let the profit run on
NYX trade. The result will be totally different. Buy stock when
it breaks out from sound base such as ATI, TOL and NYX.
They all broke out from a long trading range. I was late on NYX
 since the real broke out point is $78.8. Same thing is true for LVS.
It broke out at $76 and it's building a new base. I should wait for a
little bit longer to jump in. AKAM is still in its trading range. It looks
 
like a sleeping alligator. Touch him. He will bite you. This is why
 I
got hurt. GS is still in uptrend and if it is topping it needs more time
to do that. Finally emotions still play a good role in my trading decision
and I really need to get rid of it but this also needs more time and experience.




















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