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早报导读
对私人住宅发展商而言，今年是一个销量红火的年头。虽然价格上升幅度不如过去两年显著，但销量却是创下了有史以来的新高，而这一纪录在未来多年里相信都不容易被打破。
根据市区重建局（URA）的数据，发展商在今年前三个季度共售出1万7844个私宅单位，10月和11月的预估数据则显示共有3035个单位在这两个月内售出，使得今年前11个月的总销量达到2万零879个单位。
分析师普遍预测，今年全年的销量将达到2万2000个单位，较去年的1万5904个单位激增38％，也比前年创下的历来销量纪录1万6292个单位高出35％。
欣乐国际（SLP）执行董事麦俊荣相信，即使私宅销售市场在12月趋于淡静，但若要使全年销量突破2万2000个单位仍然是不在话下，从而使得销量达到难以突破的新高。
“明年的销量则相信会介于1万6000至2万个单位，因为毕竟将会有很多新项目推出，而尽管政府在两个月前刚推出新的降温措施，但低利率、高租金回报率等支撑销量的市场因素依然存在。”
德伟产业（DWG）培训、研究与咨询部高级经理李思德赞同这一看法。他认为在考虑经济展望的担忧、投资者转向海外房地产和商用房地产的可能性等因素后，明年的私宅销量预计将依然能够达到月均1300至1500个单位。
他表示，今年前11个月的销量达到月均1900个单位，明年要达到这样的水平将会相当困难，但只要没有出现意料之外的严重经济冲击或利率上调等情况，发展商相信还是能卖出1万6000至1万8000个单位。
也有分析师相信 销量会因经济展望不明朗被拉低
不过，还是有分析师相信销量会被经济展望不明朗的因素所拉低，仲量联行（JLL）新加坡研究与咨询部主管王德辉便预计，明年的私宅销量将下滑至1万4000至1万7000个单位。
第一太平戴维斯（Savills）研究与咨询部董事张敏璋则更看低至1万至1万2000个单位，因为他觉得今年的销量激增主要是由于政府在去年大量增加了土地供给。
“相比之下，今年的政府售地计划比去年有所放缓，这便意味着明年推出的新项目数量将不会如今年这么多，从而使得销量较低，月均可介于800至1000个单位。”
另一方面，在销量创新高的当儿，今年的私宅价格则虽然继续呈上升趋势，但增速已显著放缓。市建局的私宅价格指数在第一季同比下滑0.1％，在第二季和第三季则分别同比上扬0.4％和0.6％。
高力国际（Colliers）研究与咨询部主管谢岫君指出，私宅价格全年的涨幅预计会在2％以内，较去年的5.9％和前年的17.6％有所放缓，显示政府稳定价格的努力还是产生了显著的效用，明年则相信会趋于稳定。
“在经过六轮的降温措施后，私宅市场的炒作和投资行为一定程度上已经减少，使得价格开始出现趋于稳定的迹象。但是尽管如此，政府如果觉得降温效果仍然有限，便绝不会在出台更多措施上手软。”
世邦魏理仕（CBRE）私宅部执行董事陈金道则表示，虽然私宅价格在明年继续上扬的可能性不大，但如果要出现下滑恐怕也不太可能，主要是考虑到发展商在今年标地时所承担的较高地价，因此不太可能降低新项目的售价。
“对于位置优越的好项目而言，需求预计还是会维持强劲。市场对于豪华项目的兴趣也格外浓厚，特别是外国人，他们尤其觉得投资豪宅是为财富保值的好方法。”
不过，麦俊荣、李思德和张敏璋则都继续看好明年私宅价格的走势。
麦俊荣指出，价格会继续上涨主要是因为低利率、高流动性、通胀压力、市场买家信心等推动销量的主要因素仍旧维持不变，因此有望使得私宅价格在明年取得1％至5％的年比涨幅。
李思德说：“近期地价的走高将会让一些新项目尝试挑战价格新高，促使价格可能在明年上涨达5％。不过，如果价格连续两个季度维持较高涨幅，政府相信便会再度出手，可能会对买家的债务收入比率设限。”
张敏璋则指出，市建局的价格指数其实有些过于学术，事实上市场普遍觉得今年有些地区的价格涨幅高达5％至10％。“就明年而言，一些大众和中档公寓的价格很可能进一步上扬10％至15％。”
《联合早报》 （编辑：梁嘉芪）
2012 record year for property market
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Despite six rounds of cooling measures in the last couple of years, the private property market continued its uptrend unabated in 2012.
Although data for December is yet to be out, but both sales volume and prices of new private homes have already surpassed previous highs.
In the past two years, the Yaps have bought four private properties, three of which were in 2011.
They hold to the view that property investments are a good hedge against inflation.
But with property prices hitting the roof, the family of four is finding it increasingly difficult to find new investment opportunities.
Prices of private homes have gone up by 3.7 per cent so far this year, according to Savills. And experts expect marginal increases in 2013.
A property investor, Soh Poh Neo, said: “Even if rental is coming down, we still can support the mortgage payment because loan-to-value (LTV) is very much lower so mortgage monthly instalment is also much lower. So yield will be coming down in view of the supply but interest rate is low, so it is not so frightening. I believe that not many people will sell in a crash situation because everyone has good holding power. The latest cooling measures caught people like me being filtered out. Next what am I going to do, I will use my children’s name to buy – they have longer term for the loans.”
The Yaps used their son’s name – 23-year-old Travis Yap – for the latest purchase of a unit at eCo.
Since 6 October, property investors like Madam Soh and her husband Mr Yap, aged above 35, could borrow less from banks to finance their mortgages.
The latest cooling measure, which has also capped loan tenures at 35 years, is the sixth to be implemented in Singapore in the last couple of years.
Experts said more cooling measures may be implemented if home prices do not show signs of easing. But with the current low interest rates and access liquidity in the market, property investors are finding it easy to finance mortgage loans, and this may drive demand and home prices higher going forward.
DTZ’s research head for Asia Pacific, Chua Chor Hoon, said: “The government may be looking at the HDB market, at the rules and regulations over there, because a high proportion of buyers in the private condominium market are people with HDB addresses. So these could be people who are not just upgrading but buying a private condominium for investment purposes.”
To cope with demand, the government has increased the supply of land for new private homes through its Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme.
For the first half of next year, the GLS programme will put up 12 private residential sites including five for executive condominium projects put up for sale. These will yield some 14,035 private and executive condominium units.
But since 2011, the total number of units yielded from the government land supply has been getting less – from 14,300 units for GLS H1 2011 to 14,100 units for GLS H1 2012 and 14,035 units for H1 2013.
Savills Singapore’s research head, Alan Cheong, said: “This year, the high supply numbers and therefore the high demand numbers were a by-product of the very aggressive 2011 government land sales supply. But moving into 2013, you find that the 2012 GLS numbers were much more muted. And these will be launched next year. So next year and corresponding the new home sales numbers would come through at a more sedate pace.”
Knight Frank’s research head, Png Poh Soon, said: “The assessment from our house view is from 16,000 to 18,000 for the whole year. Compared to 2012, which our assessment and forecast is up to 22,000. In terms of price wise, we don’t foresee that in 2013 there will be any quick correction. But on the other hand, we don’t think there will be runaway prices. We foresee that prices will trend upwards but at a slow steady pace.”
Another trend that will see the property market cooling in 2013 – capping the total number of units that can be built on a site for non-landed private residential developments outside the central area from 4 November 2012, reducing the number of investors looking to buy a property that requires less capital.
Chua Chor Hoon said: “Volume will come close to it but won’t surpass because a lot of shoebox units have been sold so we will see larger units.”
Up till November, nearly 21,000 new units have been sold. This have already surpassed the previous record where about 16,000 units were sold for the whole of 2010.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 21 Dec 2012
