有地私宅资产价值三年来大增 东部独立式洋房价格翻倍

赵恺健 (2012-07-25)

中央区的有地私宅在过去三年内的价格涨幅比不上东部的项目。东部独立式洋房资产值上涨104.4％，而中央区独立式洋房的价格则上涨了82.3％。图为荷兰绿园的一个有地私宅项目。（档案照片）

　　过去三年，有地私宅的资产价值大幅增长。东部的独立式洋房的表现最为亮眼，三年来资产值上涨104.4％，价格翻倍。

　　根据橙易产业咨询公司（OrangeTee）的报告显示，有地私宅的价格已经增长了多达79.7％，远远超越了非有地私宅的47.9％价格涨幅。

　　报告指出，自从2009年第二季以来，反映私宅市场价格的市区重建局私宅价格指数已连续十个季度上升，直到今年第一季微跌0.1％。有地私宅在这段期间平均每个季度价格上升4.7％，超过非有地私宅3.0％的价格涨幅。

　　橙易产业认为，有地私宅的价格大幅增长，是因为市场上新完成的有地私宅项目变少了。过去三年中，平均每季度只为市场增加了73个项目。这个供应量远远比不上1995年至2009年这段期间，每季度平均完成180个新项目的速度。

　　此外，根据今年第一季的数据，在所有私宅项目中，有地私宅只占25.9％；而在2010年第一季，有地私宅的比率占了27.8％。相对越来越稀有的有地私宅项目，也是推动有地私宅过去三年内价格大涨的原因。

　　以有地私宅项目的类别来进行比较的话，其中独立式洋房的价格涨幅是最大的，达84.1％，相等于平均每季度价格上升4.8％。排屋以及半独立式洋房三年来的价格涨幅则分别是81.4％与70.1％。

　　其中，位于东部的独立式洋房的表现最为亮眼，三年来资产值上涨104.4％，价格翻倍。紧随着的则是东北区以及中央区的独立式洋房，价格分别提高了83.4％与82.3％。这也相等于他们的价格平均每季度上涨了6.3％、5.3％以及4.7％。

　　在排屋当中，依然是东部的价格涨幅最大，季度价格涨幅为5.2％。半独立式洋房价格涨幅则由东北区的项目领跑，平均每季价格上扬5.4％。

　　有地私宅料成为 长期投资者风险避风港

　　展望有地私宅的市场前景，橙易产业认为随着新加坡居民财富的增长，加上有地私宅项目的有限供应，这个领域的项目预计会成为长期投资者的一个风险避风港。

　　他们认为，虽然价格涨幅预计会放缓，但由于新加坡吸引越来越多富裕人士前来居住，加上本地居民的财富增长，会支撑着有地私宅项目的需求；而相对有限的存货与未来可用来建造有地私宅项目的地段，也意味着供应方面会受到限制。因此，有地私宅市场依然受投资者青睐。

　　另一方面，高力国际（Colliers）昨天发布的一份私宅市场报告则指出，在非有地私宅项目方面，虽然高档地区（核心中央区，简称CCR）的销售与价格在上个季度都有所上涨，但是发展商在推出豪华与超级豪华的项目时都变得更加谨慎了，买家对于这些价格特别高昂的项目兴趣依然只是温热。

　　随着豪华与超级豪华项目在市场中的活动较为平静，高力国际的研究显示豪华与超级豪华公寓的平均资产价值继续下滑，截至今年6月底，每平方英尺的价值环比下跌了3.8％到2768元。每月的平均毛租金也下降了0.8％至每平方英尺5.64元。

　　报告指出，由于去年底推出的额外买家印花税以及今年第二季取消了“金融投资者计划”（Financial Investor Scheme, FIS）与经济发展局将修改了“全球投资者计划”（Global Investor Programme, GIP），压抑了对于豪华与超级豪华公寓项目的外来需求，对于这些项目的买卖与出租都产生了影响。

　　接下来的半年，由于预计海外派驻人员人数将缓慢增长，而市面上会推出更多新项目的供应，因此高力国际预计豪华与超级豪华公寓的平均每月毛租金将保持平稳或微跌。

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《联合早报》

UBS forecasts dip in home prices by 10%-15%

Straits Times: Wed, Jul 25

RESIDENTIAL property prices might fall 10 to 15 per cent in the next 12 months, a new report said. UBS said last week that while the market has remained resilient despite the Government's cooling efforts, it is near a tipping point. This forecast is, however, considerably more pessimistic than other experts' views, which mostly predict either stable prices or smaller falls of up to 5 per cent. But it is still less grim than estimates last December when experts said prices could correct by as much as 30 per cent on the back of that month's cooling measures. While UBS acknowledged that tight residential supply and low interest rates are keeping prices resilient, it said other factors point to a more cautious outlook over the next 12 months. For instance, Singapore's economic growth, while still recovering, is more uncertain now. The Government's residential property cooling measures are also likely to continue to discourage foreign buyers and resale market activity. The proportion of private residential homes bought by foreigners and companies has fallen from 20 per cent last year to 7 per cent in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, the population growth rate has also slowed and is likely to decline further given the recent tightening of immigration policy. And while the supply of homes is still tight, the expected ramp- up from next year onwards should help to compensate fully for the earlier supply shortage by 2014 or 2015, the report noted. UBS expects 140,000 to 150,000 homes to be completed from this year to 2015, higher than its estimated cumulative supply shortfall of 90,000 units built up from 2000 to 2011. This mix of negative factors has turned the bank sour on the property market's prospects, leading to its prediction of a 'moderate' 10 to 15 per cent correction. 'Property developers still have strong balance sheets, which may lower the probability of their having to significantly lower the prices of their residential projects to generate cash flow. 'We currently see a higher risk for mass-market private homes (versus prime ones) as this segment has largely led the current recovery, and (is likely) the bulk of private residential supply over the next few years,' the report said. Private home prices inched up 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, according to preliminary estimates, reversing a 0.1 per cent dip in the first quarter. Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui, however, disagreed with the report's estimates. Assuming no major events globally, he expects prices to move marginally, either up or down, similar to previous quarters. 'For prices to correct 10 to 15 per cent, they will have to fall about 2.5 to 4 per cent every quarter from now. This means that something serious has to happen and we should be experiencing some softening but we haven't seen that,' he added. [e-mail] Source: The Straits Times