市建局援引研究报告：投资鞋盒公寓要三思

(2012-04-19)

华京京　报道 [e-mail] 　　市区重建局表示，本地鞋盒公寓的数量将在2015年底达到8200个单位。多家机构的研究报告都提醒想要投资的公众，在决定购买鞋盒公寓前要三思而后行。 　　根据当局的数据，截至去年底本地市场上共有2400个鞋盒公寓，其中1000个位于高档地区（CCR）、1000个位于中档地区（RCR）、400个位于大众化地区（OCR）。 三年后数量达8200单位 　　市建局预期鞋盒公寓的数量会持续增加，在今年达到4100个，明年达到5400个，后年达到6800个，并在2015年达到8200个，其中有2100个会在高档地区、3900个在中档地区、2200个在大众化地区。 　　当局援引野村证券（Nomura）、花旗集团（Citi）和法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）的研究报告指出，私宅市场的强劲需求是被鞋盒公寓的购买所推动，而其中许多买家都是为了投资，不是为了自己居住。 　　这些报告指出，随着鞋盒公寓的供应越来越多，这些投资型买家在寻找租户时所面对的竞争也将提高，所以在决定购买前有必要仔细考虑租金回报率究竟能有多高。同时，若贷款利率走高，这类买家必将大受影响。 　　野村证券分析过去两年完成的私宅项目后指出，鞋盒公寓的租金需求表现并不稳定，有些项目如Parc Imperial和Zedge固然租赁需求不错，但Kembangan Suites、Heritage East等却相对难以出租。 　　“明年又将有一大批新竣工的鞋盒公寓涌入市场，如果市场的租赁需求没有显著上升，其中很多单位恐怕都会面对出租困难的局面。” 　　野村证券强调，大众和中档地区的鞋盒公寓目前有超过半数是被组屋居住者买来投资。这些买家如果租不出去，而又遭遇贷款利率上扬，势必对他们造成很大的经济负担。 　　巴黎银行也对鞋盒公寓的投资需求日益增加感到担忧，并认为鞋盒公寓的租赁市场依然有待接受考验，特别是在政府收紧移民政策的前提下。 　　“在未来需求不稳定的情况下，我们认为市场可能在明年下半年就会感受到供过于求的痛楚，包括租金疲软、购买气氛低迷等。” 　　巴黎银行指出，低至谷底的贷款利率外加较高的流动性使得市场的购买气氛热烈，但如果贷款利率上调，后果将十分严重，会对购屋能力和需求都造成显著影响。

联合早报》 （编辑：王秘） Thursday, Apr 19, 2012 AsiaOne Oversupply of shoebox flats could cool demand, reduce rents: Experts Investors buying shoebox apartments hoping for capital gains and good rental returns may be driving up demand in the overall private property market, property analysts warned. The Straits Times reported that analysts at major research firms cautioned investors about such purchases even though the price tags look tempting. Thousands of these shoebox apartments, usually 500 sq ft or smaller, are set to flood the market in the next year or so, analysts said. This could mean problem getting a tenant or a good resale price for those who purchased these apartments. Most buyers of these units tended to be investors, rather than occupiers, who lived in Housing Board flats. According to the English daily, a report by BNP Paribas Group said there has been a spike in private units purchased by Housing Board dwellers since 2008. These purchases are believed to be not for owner occupation. A research report by Nomura Group said the number of completed shoebox units could triple in 2013. The report also said that most of the units scheduled for completion are mass and mid-market projects, and that more than half of these units were purchased by Housing Board dwellers. Those who bought the units hoping for rental returns may also see their hopes dashed - different developments have seen different levels of rental demand. Tighter immigration rules could also mean difficulty finding tenants for these shoebox units. All these factors could lead to an oversupply of units, resulting in lower rents and buyer sentiments. HDB dwellers who bought the shoebox units could further be affected, as they have less holding power to fund their shoebox unit purchases. [e-mail]  Shoebox flats rake in higher rental yields Straits Times: Fri, Apr 20 TINY 'shoebox' homes here are raking in much higher rental yields for investors than other apartment types but experts warn the good times might not last. Data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) found that gross yields for shoebox apartments were 5.4 per cent in the first three months of the year. This is well above the 2.5 to 3.5 per cent yields that residential properties typically return to investors. The SRX shoebox yield was based on the average rent of $6.51 per sq ft (psf) per month for the 197 leasing deals inked in the period. The average unit price of the 123 shoebox homes sold then was $1,450 psf. Typically, rental yield is calculated by dividing the rental sum received over 12 months into the cost of the unit. But SRX calculated the yield by dividing the average psf rent over 12 months by the average psf price of units sold in the first quarter. Shoebox units are typically 500 sq ft or smaller and can be found in projects like Parc Imperial, Thomson V One and Prestige Heights. A total of 42 shoebox units at Prestige Heights have been rented out since the start of the year, SRX's data showed. They enjoyed average rents of $6.89 psf per month with yields at 4.9 per cent. Just last month, a 409 sq ft unit at the Balestier Road project was leased for $2,850 while another 420 sq ft apartment secured a tenant at $2,700 a month in February. There were 16 leases signed for shoebox units at Heritage East in East Coast Road, with average rents of $6.30 psf and yields of about 5.1 per cent. SRX collates and displays transactions by the major property agencies, accounting for more than 80 per cent of resale transactions in the market. Experts say investors have flocked to the shoebox segment in droves, attracted by the affordable prices - typically less than $1 million. In fact, about one in seven buyers picked up new homes 500 sq ft and smaller last year, according to R'ST Research. And the climbing yields seem to be the main driver pulling investors in. Yields of these tiny apartments have climbed from 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 to 5.4 per cent in the first quarter this year. This is more than double the rental yield of 2.4 per cent in the luxury segment, according to analysis by Citi Investment Research. It also dwarfs the 3.6 per cent yield in the mid-end segment and 4.1 per cent yield for mass market homes. But these high yields are not expected to last as an increasing supply of completed shoebox homes enters the market. The number of these small homes is expected to double from about 4,100 units later this year to 8,200 units by the end of 2015. Experts note that many of the completed shoebox apartments are in good locations such as in the city fringe area and River Valley area and are thus commanding decent rentals now. Many of the upcoming units, however, are in suburban areas, which might not be able to support similar rent levels. Mr Tan Kok Keong, OrangeTee's research and consultancy head, said that while a dip in prices of shoebox flats could cause yields to rise temporarily, yields are likely to trend towards the norm of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent in the long run as supply picks up. He expects the yield gap between shoebox units and typical residential yields to narrow to between 0.5 and 1 per cent from 2014 onwards. [e-mail] Source: The Straits Times