私宅价格「力不从心」

（2012-01-04）

● 李敏雯

　　新加坡私宅价格涨幅进一步收窄。市区重建局昨天出炉的预估数据显示私宅价格指数去年第四季度仅微升0.2％。

　　这意味着私宅价格的全年涨幅已从2010年的17.6％，明显降至5.9％。这个全年涨幅甚至还不如转售组屋在2011年取得的10.7％涨幅。

　　昨天出炉的私宅价格指数显示，政府过去三年来五次推出的降温措施已使私宅价格涨幅放缓。去年第四季度的涨幅是自2009年第二季度房价见底以来，最微小的季度涨幅。这也比前个季度的1.3％涨幅来得小。

　　从2009年第四季度开始，私宅价格涨幅已经连续九个季度收窄。

完整数据月底出炉

　　在非有地私宅领域中，代表大众化私宅的中央区以外，仍然是第四季度涨幅最显著的领域，上升了0.6％，但明显少于第三季度的2.1％。其次是代表高档私宅的核心中央区，涨幅仅为0.5％；代表中档私宅的其他中央区则价格持平，价格指数没有改变。

　　这些数据来自第四季度首10个星期的新私宅和转售市场的成交价格。完整数据将在本月底出炉。

　　就去年全年而言，大众化私宅领域仍然表现最亮丽。根据预估数据，中央区以外全年涨幅达到7.7％；代表中档私宅的其他中央区涨幅则为4.4％；代表高档私宅的核心中央区则涨得最少，全年仅为4％。

涨幅放缓因素

        高力国际（Colliers）研究与咨询部主管谢岫君受访时指出，目前的价位分别比2008年第二季度和1996年第二季度的两个房地产巅峰水平高出16.2％和13.7％。

　　她指出，一些促使价格涨幅放缓的因素包括2011年1月推出的第四轮降温措施，如业主在购买后的四年内出售私宅，将被抽取4％至16％的卖方印花税；政府大举推出官地供应；经济展望不确定；以及买家对私宅价格更为敏感，购房也变得更谨慎。

　　第一太平戴维斯（Savills）研究与咨询部副董事张敏璋则指出，去年第四季度0.2％的涨幅，明显低于他之前预测的1.6％。他因此把今年首季度和次季度的私宅价格指数涨幅预测，分别降低至0.6％和0.1％。

　　张敏璋甚至认为本月底出炉的私宅价格完整数据，就可能持平或稍微下滑。

　　世邦魏理仕（CBRE）执行董事李晓和相信私宅价格已经回稳。

　　“私宅价格去年的涨幅主要得到大众化私宅的支持。中央区以外的私宅销量占了全年大约1万6000间新私宅销量近三分之二。”

　 　今年全年卖得最理想的大众化私宅项目是A Treasure Trove（每平方英尺中位数尺价为915元）、勿洛馨居（每平方英尺中位数尺价为1359元）、Eight Courtyards（每平方英尺中位数尺价为800元）和优和苑（euHabitat）（每平方英尺中位数尺价为1050元）。

　　展望未来，李晓和认为本地私宅的市场需求将减少15％至20％。因为一些需求可能由执行共管公寓（Executive Condominium，简称EC）吸纳。

　　他预测豪华公寓的价格将在2012年下跌10％至15％，大众化私宅的跌幅将介于5％至10％之间。

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分析员：经济增长停滞时房地产降温措施或调整

（2012-01-04）

李敏雯　报道

 对于新出台的降温措施是否会成为永久性的公共政策，市场人士看法出现两极化。有些认为这一轮新措施今年内就有放宽的空间，另一些则相信新措施与去年5月大选后，政府表示要更加体恤公民的公共政策是一致的，因此不会撤销。

　　今年经济前景不明朗，对于政府对房地产市场实行新一轮降温措施，向买家征收额外买方印花税的做法，有房地产分析员认为可能在经济增长停滞时加以调整。

　　对于新出台的降温措施是否会成为永久性的公共政策，市场人士看法出现两极化。有些认为这一轮新措施今年内就有放宽的空间，另一些则相信新措施与去年5月大选后，政府表示要更加体恤公民的公共政策是一致的，因此不会撤销。

　　针对新降温措施是否有调整空间，国家发展部受询时说：“由于额外买方印花税（Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty，简称ABSD）刚开始实施，政府仍然在密切关注降温措施（对市场）所产生的影响。”

　　国家发展部答复本报询问时指出，自从征收额外买方印花税的新措施在上个月宣布以来，当局已接获一些公众的意见，表示能理解政府实行新降温措施的理由，并对新措施为促进一个稳定与可持续的房地产市场的目标表示支持。

　　不过，也有外国买家感到被这项新措施所歧视而颇有微言。韩国人李镐敬（42岁，中介）接受本报访问时，对新加坡政府向外国买家抽取更高的印花税感到不满。

　　她说：“我觉得新加坡政府应该一视同仁，在本地工作的外籍人士一样缴付个人所得税，因此不应该惩罚那些想买房自住的外籍人士。”

　　此外，受外籍人士欢迎的讨论区如Singapore Expats Forum，也针对额外买方印花税展开热烈讨论。

　　一名署名SundayMorningStaple的网友，就把额外买方印花税的简称ABSD和“荒谬”（Absurd）划上等号。

他说：“我希望世界上其他国家也仿效新加坡，让新加坡人在海外买房子投资时，受到同样的对待。”

　　国家发展部在答复中重申额外买方印花税是一个经过精细调准（calibrated）的措施，目的是缓和来自本地人和外国人的投资需求，以避免将来可能出现更严重的价格调整。

　　宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院房地产系教授瓦克泰（Susan Wachter）上月接受本报访问时，就肯定了新加坡政府的做法。她认为新加坡政府向外国买家征收10％额外买方印花税，以遏止热钱过快流入，相信能有效避免资产泡沫形成。

　　政府上月初宣布的最新一轮房地产市场降温措施，集中火力针对外国和永久居民买家的需求。外国买家须缴付相等于房产售价或估价10％的额外买方印花税，而购买第二套或更多住宅的永久居民，则加抽3％的额外买方印花税。现有买方印花税约3％。

　　昨天刚出炉的私宅价格预估数据也显示私宅价格已经回稳。戴德梁行（DTZ）亚太研究部主管蔡楚芬说，由于政府在去年12月刚推出了额外买方印花税，加上经济增长下来将放缓，她预料今年的私宅价格将下滑，而高档私宅的下跌幅度将超越大众化私宅。

　　她说：“若本地发展商无法承担额外买方印花税，外国买家可能会到其他国家买房，或者购买较小的私宅，将支出保持在原有预算之内。”

　　智信研究与咨询（R’ST Research）总监王伽胜指出，今年上半年的私宅价格预计跌幅会达到8％。昨天出炉的第四季度数据，可能是这一轮房地产周期最后一次出现涨幅。随着买家退场，私宅价格调整最可能在今年下半年出现。

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Home prices sputter, poised to fall this year

Business Times: Wed, Jan 04

(SINGAPORE) Prices of both private homes as well as HDB resale flats are poised to fall this year. This was foreshadowed in the official flash estimates for the fourth quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in growth for both segments. Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential property price index rose a mere 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2011, its most anaemic growth in 10 quarters since the index bottomed out in Q2 2009. From the 15.8 per cent q-on-q increase in Q3 2009, the index has now moderated for nine consecutive quarters, according to CBRE's analysis. The 0.2 per cent q-on-q hike in Q4 was lower than the 1.3 per cent q-on-q rise for Q3 last year. For the whole of 2011, the index rose 5.9 per cent - a marked slowdown from the 17.6 per cent jump in 2010. Most market watchers say it is a given that prices will go down this year, amid the weaker economic outlook and poorer sentiment, especially after the introduction of the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) last month. 'Developers know they need to cut prices but the difficulty is in gauging how much. If they don't cut enough, buyers are not going to act. But if they give too much, there's always a fear that buyers will expect a bit more. What you want to do is to give enough for the fence sitters to come back into the market. Despite the weaker economic outlook, there's still a lot of cash and liquidity in the market,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. DTZ's head of Asia Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon predicts a 10-15 per cent drop in URA's overall private home price index in 2012 citing the ABSD which took effect on Dec 8 and the economic slowdown. The luxury housing segment, where there are more foreign buyers, is expected to take the biggest hit given the top ABSD rate of 10 per cent levied on their residential property purchases. CRBE executive director Li Hiaw Ho expects overall demand for new private homes to be trimmed by 15-20 per cent this year. 'Prices of luxury/prime condos may fall by 10-15 per cent in 2012, and mass-market condos, by 5-10 per cent,' he added. URA's flash estimates show that the price index for non-landed private homes in Outside Central Region (OCR) - where mass-market condo projects are located - was the star performer, though it has also dimmed somewhat. It rose 0.6 per cent q-on-q in Q4 last year, a slower rise than the 2.1 per cent increase in Q3 2011. The full-year 2011 increase of 7.7 per cent was also slower than the 15 per cent climb in 2010. Prices of non-landed private homes in OCR increased the fastest as demand was supported by HDB upgraders as well as investors, notes DTZ's Ms Chua. Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui notes: 'The strong run in the OCR market has led to their current (Q4 2011) prices being 28.3 per cent above their pre global financial crisis peak in 2008, while prices in Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR) are only 6 per cent and 15.9 per cent higher than their respective 2008 peaks.' The price index for non-landed homes in CCR - which includes the traditional prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove - appreciated 0.5 per cent q-on-q in Q4, following a 0.7 per cent gain in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 4 per cent, significantly lower than the 14.2 per cent rise in 2010. The index for RCR for Q4 was unchanged from the preceding quarter, taking the full-year appreciation to 4.4 per cent, after rising 17.6 per cent in 2010. In the public housing segment, HDB's resale flat price index rose just 1.7 per cent q-on-q in Q4, after rising 3.8 per cent in Q3. The full-year 2011 increase was 10.7 per cent, slower than 2010's 14.1 per cent climb. The ramp-up in supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats launched by HDB last year as well as the increase in buyers' monthly household income ceiling from $8,000 to $10,000 has led to more first-time home buyers switching to BTO flats from the resale market, say agents. ERA's key executive officer Eugene Lim says that cash over valuations (COVs) stabilised at around $30,000-40,000 in Q4, based on transactions handled by ERA. 'Going by what happened in the last recession, flats were sold at or below valuation. If Singapore enters a recession this year, COVs may also turn negative and hence transacted prices also fall.' He predicts HDB's resale flat price index may ease 5-8 per cent for the whole of 2012 in such a scenario. The drop will be more severe if the HDB proceeds to allot a higher proportion of new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats to second timer buyers, as this leads to further diversion of demand from the HDB resale market. However, if Singapore escapes recession, the HDB resale flat price index should still increase by up to 5 per cent this year, even if the government sets aside more new flats to second timers, he added. PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail forecasts a correction of up to 3 per cent in the index. Dennis Wee Group senior manager Lee Sze Teck reckons it could ease up to 5 per cent. HDB will launch 3,890 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines this month. Source: Business Times

Public and private home prices moderating

Posted by luxuryasiahome ⋅ January 3, 2012 ⋅

Home prices in Singapore are showing signs of moderating. Flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority and Housing and Development Board (HDB) for the last quarter of 2011 saw prices increasing at a slower rate.

Prices of resale flats grew by 1.7 per cent, compared to the 3.8 per cent growth seen in the third quarter. This brings the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) – which provides information on the general price movements in the public residential market – to 190.4.

Meanwhile, private home prices rose by a marginal 0.2 per cent, down from the 1.3 per cent rise in the third quarter. The Private Residential Property Price Index stood at 206.2 at the end of the fourth quarter.

Market watchers said the softening in prices was expected.

The figures confirmed what the market had been expecting – a moderation in home prices following a year of policy tweaks by the government to cool the red-hot property market.

The price increase of resale flats slowed sharply in the last three months of 2011, following two straight quarters of more than 3 per cent growth.

Market watchers said home buyers are more cautious in light of the uncertain economic outlook.

And the ramped up supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) flats will continue to draw first-time home buyers away from the resale market.

In light of these two factors, some analysts expect HDB resale prices to correct by up to three per cent this year.

Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Realty, said: “The success rate (for BTO applicants) is higher now, it is a lot better. In fact, any first timer that applies for a flat is almost certain of getting it. So with this improved success ratio, more and more buyers are crossing over to the BTO market and that translates into lower demand in the resale market.”

In 2011, HDB offered some 28,000 flats – 25,000 under the BTO system and some 3,000 units under the Sale of Balance Flats exercise.

For 2012, home buyers can look forward to 25,000 BTO flats.

HDB said “these projects will have a good geographical spread in the various towns”.

It will offer nearly 3,900 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines in January.

Property firms said the cash premium that is paid upfront, also known as cash-over-valuation (COV), is showing signs of softening, dropping about S$5,000 to S$8,000 in the last quarter of 2011.

Experts said that COV is likely to continue dropping amidst the various housing policies, until it bottoms out at around S$20,000 to S$30,000. Short of an economic downturn, COV is unlikely to hit zero, as there remains a constant demand from PRs, downgraders and singles.

But market watchers point out that buyers now have more bargaining power.

Mohd Ismail, CEO of PropNex, elaborated: “In areas where the prices are very high, for example, in central locations, where the houses are valued currently at S$600,000, S$700,000. And these houses are on the low floor – assuming on the second floor – and they may also be affected by ethnic ratios.

“When such houses are put in the market, you don’t even get a buyer at zero cash-over-valuation. Therefore, if you ask, ‘are there possibilities of picking houses today without paying any cash?’ Yes, there are. But they may not have the best of the panoramic view and so on.”

In the private housing market, prices too have taken a hit following the slew of cooling measures. The rate of increase has continued to moderate for the ninth straight quarter, leading some to believe that the market is at a turning point.

Nicholas Mak, executive director of research and consultancy at SLP International, said: “The market prices are actually teetering on the edge of a decline and what it really needs is a factor, something to push it over the edge, and this could come in the form of macroeconomic factors such as an economic slowdown or some impending crisis.”

Private home prices are now at an all-time high, at 16 per cent above the previous price peak in 2008.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 3 Jan 2012

	Private home prices may have peaked	Straits Times: Wed, Jan 04
	PRIVATE home prices, which have been defying gravity for the past two years, finally seem to be close to their turning point, inching up by just a smidgen in the three months to December. Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday showed prices rising just 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter last year, down from a 1.3 per cent gain the quarter before. Experts note that while this brings home prices to a new high, it is the smallest quarterly growth since the market bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009 and could signal that the market has peaked or is close to doing so. A series of market cooling measures since September 2009 - most recently last month - global economic uncertainties and a boost in housing supply have provided a check on prices, they add. They say a price correction could show up as early as the first quarter's URA price index. PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expects prices to soften further, dipping by 3 per cent to 4 per cent this year. He said it is 'very likely' that prices might fall by less than 1 per cent by the first quarter although the bulk of the expected correction will take place in the second half of the year. Developers are also expected to be more cautious about buying land, given the abundant upcoming supply with reduced participation and bid prices likely, said Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Colliers International's director of research and advisory. These will be catalysts for price declines. DTZ's head of Asia-Pacific research Chua Chor Hoon noted that the luxury segment, which has the largest share of foreigners, is likely to see a greater fall than the mass and mid-market segments. Mr Ong Teck Hui, head of research and consultancy at Credo Real Estate, said depending on how the economy plays out and how the housing market performs after Chinese New Year, the price index for the three months to March could show either marginal growth or a mild correction. Demand for new private homes could also be trimmed by up to 20 per cent, as some of the demand could be siphoned away by executive condos (EC), said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research. Executive condos are a hybrid of public and private housing. The Government had earlier said that it is ready to supply sites for up to 5,000 EC units through its land sales programme this year. 'Prices of luxury and prime residential properties may fall by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in 2012, and mass market homes by 5 per cent to 10 per cent,' he added. 'Separately, landed home prices will likely see a smaller correction of less than 5 per cent since foreigners are generally not allowed to buy and supply is limited.' Overall, home prices increased 5.9 per cent last year, well below the 17.6 per cent growth in 2010 as the Government rolled out five rounds of cooling measures, the latest on Dec 8. But as with the previous quarter, non-landed suburban homes continued to post the biggest price gain. They rose 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, but this was well down from a 2.1 per cent jump in the three months before. ERA Realty key executive officer Eugene Lim said that this could be due to healthy sales at projects like Bedok Residences and The Palette in Pasir Ris. There was no change in city fringe home prices which grew 1.2 per cent previously, while city centre home prices were up 0.5 per cent, down from 0.7 per cent before. ERA's Mr Lim said the increase in city centre prices might be due to sales at The Scotts Tower and Scotts Square while city fringe prices remained flat due to a lack of large-scale project launches. Experts point out that the flash estimates are compiled based on transactions during the first 10 weeks of the quarter, with the Dec 8 cooling measures - which include an additional buyer's stamp duty of 10 per cent for all foreigner home purchases - unlikely to have made an impact on the figures yet. The URA also cautioned that past data has shown that the difference between the quarterly price changes indicated by the flash estimate and actual price changes - updated about four weeks later when more data on the caveats lodged and the take-up of new projects is captured - could be significant when the change is small. Source: The Straits Times