私宅价格增幅连续九个季度放缓

 

韩宝镇 (2012-01-28)

 　　我国私宅价格增幅连续九个季度放缓，去年第四季只微增0.2％，比前一个季度的1.3％来得低，成为自2009年第三季以来最小的增长率。去年全年私宅价格只增长5.9％，比前年的17.6％明显低了许多。

　　市区重建局昨天发布去年第四季和全年的房地产数据。多数分析师认为这显示我国私宅价格在去年第四季已经见顶，但也有分析师认为数据指向私宅价格会在今年见顶。

　　此外，不论是同比或环比，去年各类型私宅的价格都取得更低的增长率。去年第四季高档地区（核心中央区，简称CCR）的非有地住宅的价 格，增长了0.5％，而前一季是0.7％。中档地区（其他中央区，简称RCR）和大众化地区（中央区以外，简称OCR）则分别增长0.1％和0.6％，比 前一季的分别1.2％和2.1％来得低。

　　全年来说，高档、中档和大众化地区的非有地住宅价格分别增长4％、4.5％和7.7％，比前年14.2％、17.6％和15％低许多。

　　供应量方面，未来项目供应的未完成私宅单位共有7万7089个，是有纪录以来最高的一次，比第三季的7万6255个单位要多一些。截至第四季，未来供应当中有3万9184个单位还未售出。

　　发展商在去年第四季总共推出4105个未完成的私宅单位供销售。去年一整年，发展商总共推出1万7710个未完成的私宅单位供销售，而前年则是1万6575个。

　　去年全年，发展商总共售出1万5472个未完成单位和432个完成单位；前年售出的未完成单位和完成单位则分别是1万5832个和460个。

售卖EC去年创新高

　　至于执行共管公寓（Executive Condominium，简称EC）的总数目，截至去年第四季，仍然保持在1万零430个单位。未来单位有6058个。此外，另有2900个单位可能来自今年上半年政府售地计划发放的EC地段。

　　发展商售卖的EC在2011年创下2883个单位的新高，2010年只售出1052个单位。

　　世邦魏理仕（CBRE）私宅部执行董事陈金道指出，由于假期和政府宣布加抽额外买方印花税（additional buyer’s stamp duty，简称ABSD），新私宅销量在去年第四季放缓。

　　齐乐行研究与咨询部门主管王德辉认为房价可能已经见顶或者接近见顶。由于ABSD和经济放缓影响需求，房价将难以恢复冲劲。持续的房屋供应和卖主之间的竞争，也将使房价不会高涨。

　　德伟（DWG）产业咨询与研究高级经理李思德则认为房价已经在去年第四季见顶。不过，他认为房价增长放缓的导因不能全算在ABSD头上，因为ABSD是在去年12月初才推出的。市场情绪在去年第四季开始受不利的环球经济局势影响，买家转而采取观望态度。

　　展望方面，陈金道认为市场逐渐转为谨慎。虽然大众化私宅市场保持良好，但将不会看到跟去年一样水平的购买率。那些有地点优势和创新特点 的公寓仍卖得不错，就像最近推出的The Hillier和“水之都”（Watertown）一样。对于新私宅的需求预料下降1万3000个至1万4000个单位。

　　欣乐国际（SLP）执行董事麦俊荣认为，下降的价格增长和租金增长指向私宅价格将在今年见顶，而随着去年第四季半独立式洋房价格和租金下跌，其他类型的私宅价格可能也会跟着下滑。

　　房地产经纪公司博纳（PropNex）预测，随着额外买方印花税的推出，私宅价格在下来这一季预料出现负增长。2012年将有更多执行共管公寓推出，博纳集团总裁伊斯迈预测，大众化私宅价格将稳定下来。由于预见有更大供应量，私宅价格今年将下滑5％。

《联合早报》

Private property prices and rentals at standstill

	Business Times: Sat, Jan 28
PRICE rises for private homes almost ground to a halt last quarter while rental increases also tapered off. The latest official data has sparked a discussion in property circles on whether the market has peaked. Most observers say that either the peak has already been touched, or will be touched very soon. The Urban Redevelopment Authority's benchmark private home price index inched up just 0.2 per cent quarter on quarter (q-o-q) in Q4 last year, its ninth consecutive quarter of moderation. For the full year, the index's 5.9 per cent rise was a third of the 17.6 per cent gain registered in 2010. The figures were identical to flash estimates released on Jan 3. And for the first time since Q3 2009, the increase in URA's landed property sub-index was lower than that for the non-landed property sub-index. The landed sub-index rose just 0.1 per cent q-o-q in Q4 2011, compared with 0.3 per cent for the non-landed sub-index. In fact, for semi-detached houses, the price index actually fell 0.6 per cent q-o-q in Q4. 'In that quarter, prices of semi-detached houses in the east fell 1.6 per cent while those in the north-east softened by 1.3 per cent. This shows that some segments of the landed market are facing stronger price resistance,' says Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui. 'However, landed prices have risen 80 per cent from the market trough in Q2 2009, outperforming the 48 per cent increase for non-landed for the same period.' URA's overall rental index for private homes rose 0.4 per cent q-o-q in Q4, or half the 0.8 per cent rise it had posted in Q3. Full year 2011, the index was up 3.8 per cent - a fraction of the 17.9 per cent gain it had put on in 2010. The outlook for private home prices looks bleak. CBRE predicts a price drop of 5-15 per cent this year, with luxury/prime properties taking the bigger hit and mass-market homes being the least affected. Credo's Mr Ong says: 'It's difficult for prices to regain momentum as the recently imposed ABSD (additional buyer's stamp duty) and the economic slowdown could ease demand. Sustained supply and competition among sellers will also keep a lid on prices.' Giving a different take, Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said: 'We still believe it's difficult to conclude if we've reached an inflexion point, if any at all.' Mr Cheong cites the oligopolistic nature of the Singapore residential property market, with large developers with deep pockets who're likely to resist any price cut. 'A cocktail of low interest rates till at least late-2014 (as pledged by the US Federal Reserve) and higher inflation will in due course reignite another round of interest in the residential market as it's deemed a good hedge against inflation,' he said. Credo's Mr Ong paints two scenarios. 'In the best-case scenario, if the economic slowdown is milder than expected, then buying sentiment may remain positive, translating to sustained buying activity which will help to keep prices stable amid the build-up in supply. In the worst-case scenario, if there's a recession, we can expect demand to slacken, creating downward pressure on prices.' Lamenting the difficulty in making accurate predictions, Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng said: 'Each time after the government has announced cooling measures in the past two years, I thought the measures would be sufficient to cool the market. But things have turned out to be otherwise.' He admits that the ABSD will have some effect in curbing investment and foreign demand for private homes. 'Prices will come down - but to what degree before they go up again? What's the alternative for people with savings? Where should they put their money? If you believe in the longer term, property is as good a bet as any. After all, interest rates are expected to stay low for the next couple of years.' Price declines could be exacerbated by the secondary market, where volumes have slowed down more sharply than in the primary market (that is, developer sales). The number of units (excluding executive condos, or ECs) sold by developers fell 2.4 per cent from 16,292 units in 2010 to 15,904 units in 2011. However, the number of homes sold in the secondary market (resales and subsales combined) slipped 27.6 per cent, from 22,608 in 2010 to 16,357 in 2011. Developers are wooing buyers with nice showflats and appealing ad pitches. The ease of stretching out progress payments over a few years - compared with having to pay the full price upfront when buying a completed home in the secondary market - is another reason to buy a home directly from a developer. DTZ's Asia Pacific research head Chua Chor Hoon said: 'When secondary volumes come down, eventually it will affect prices. If demand slows down and sellers find it hard to sell after a few months hanging on to their prices, some owners will start to reduce prices. There will be more bargaining power for buyers as well as occupiers as rents start to ease.' URA stats also show that developers completed 12,469 private homes (excluding ECs), up 19.9 per cent from the 10,399 in 2010. This has begun to weigh on residential rents, which are rising at a slower rate. Savills Singapore expects a 'mild correction' of 5 per cent in rentals this year as more new apartments come on stream in the months ahead. It also expects the number of private residential leasing deals (excluding ECs) to hover around 45,000 in 2012, after hitting an all-time high of 45,062 leases last year. The figure for 2010 was 41,573. 'The strong 2011 showing may be attributed to Singapore becoming the preferred location among MNCs for their regional HQs. This has also attracted more senior and top executives to relocate here,' said Savills' residential leasing head Patrick Lai. DTZ's Ms Chua said rental pressure is greater in Core Central Region but this is likely to shift to Outside Central Region in three to four years due to expected completion of projects in suburban areas arising from the ramp-up in Government Land Sales since the second half of 2010. Source: Business Times