Luxehomes SCMP
Time for caution
In stark contrast to the buoyancy at the start of the year, Hong Kong’s red-hot residential market draws to a close with extreme caution as sales slump and prices fall.
The decline in sales comes amid growing concerns about policy risks, availability of credit and mortgage rate hikes.
The punitive special stamp duty of up to 15 per cent on homes bought and resold within 24 months, and the stiffer mortgage lending rules, especially for homes worth more than HK$6 million, have combined to put the brake on the runaway market.
In the first six months, home purchase sentiment remained relatively strong and prices continued to surge despite the government’s repeated pledge to impose cooling measures to alleviate the risks of a property bubble burst. According to the Centa-City Leading Index, average residential prices increased by more than 10 per cent in the first half and reached a record high around June and July. Compared with the 2008 trough, average home prices had nearly doubled, and in the luxury sector the price rally was even more stunning.
In the third quarter, growth began to ease. Prices fell in October, though the pace of their correction was confined to single-digit percentages in most properties, especially those in the city centre or on Hong Kong Island.
However, land auction results earlier in the year appeared to indicate an imminent market correction. At a government auction in June, a prime site on Borrett Road in the Mid-Levels was taken by Cheung Kong (Holdings) at a price of HK$11.65 billion, well below surveyors’ expectations of up to HK$15.2 billion. In August, a huge luxury site at Kau To Sha in Sha Tin was sold to the first and only bidder – a consortium comprising Kerry Properties, Sino Land and Manhattan Group – in just five minutes at another government auction at the opening price of HK$5.5 billion, 16 per cent lower than the lowest
market estimate. The bidding results reflected developers’ increased caution.
What has caught some people by surprise is perhaps the sharp plunge in sales in the second half of the year. According to Land Registry records and statistics provided by Midland Realty, secondary residential sales volumes stayed in the region of about 7,000 to 10,000 transactions per month in the first half of the year. Activity slumped significantly in the second half to fewer than 5,000 deals a month, with volume contracting to 3,939 in October and 3,727 last month.
On the contrary, the primary market has become more active, with 811 registered sales in October and 1,184 last month.
“The activity contraction has been very serious this time. The situation is even worse than what happened after the 2008 financial crisis,” says Buggle Lau, chief analyst of Midland Realty. “With a big drop in transactions, the secondhand property turnover rate for 2011 is likely to settle at to about 6.7 per cent, a sharp decline from 11.2 per cent for 2010. The special stamp duty and the lower loan-to-value ratio adopted by local banks are taking their toll on sales activity.”
According to Lau’s estimate, the transaction volume of secondhand residential properties this year will see a 40 per cent decline from last year.
But firsthand properties did rather well in comparison. Developers released several new projects for sale. Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai Properties and Sino Land are among the biggest property sellers.
The largest developments put on offer include Cheung Kong’s Festival City in Tai Wai and La Splendeur in Tseung Kwan O. Sun Hung Kai Properties was selling The Wings, also in Tseung Kwan O, and Imperial Cullinan in West Kowloon. Sino Land has released several projects such as One Mayfair in Kowloon Tong and Providence Bay in Pak Shek Kok.
Kerry Properties’ projects included Lions Rise in East Kowloon and Soho 189 in Sheung Wan, while Wing Tai Properties kicked-off the sales of The Warren in Tai Hang.
The primary sales market has been the focus of market attention in recent months as developers launched new projects at more reasonable prices, carrying a price premium of 10-20 per cent over secondary market values instead of a staggering 40-50 per cent premium at the start of the year.
“The residential market is in the doldrums now that transaction volumes have slumped significantly.
“There is no sign of speculators and homebuyers are very cautious about concluding a deal,” says Wong Leung-sing, associate director of research at Centaline Property Agency.
With policy concerns, increased mortgage rates and prevailing uncertainties over global economic growth, subdued buying sentiment and slow sales are expected to prevail in the short term.
由年初的燦爛，到年尾漸趨平淡，可說是2011年樓市的寫照。臨近2011年完結樓市成交價和量均雙雙下跌，投資者的謹慎態度相較於年初時的樂觀情緒，形成鮮明強烈的對比。
住宅物業銷售逐漸減少，很大程度是政策改變的後果，政府今年連環出招，開徵額外印花稅──物業買入後24個月內賣出須付15％的額外印花稅，又收緊樓按──尤其針對六百萬元以上的住宅物業。結果，樓市下半年剎車。
今年頭六個月，住宅的投資情緒強勁，即使政府一再出招，樓市仍未能降溫。中原城市領先指數顯示，今年上半年住宅單位價格升逾10%，在六月和七月連續創新高。與2008年的低谷比較，樓價貴了差不多一倍，豪宅的上升幅度更為驚人。
今年第三季，樓價增長速度逐漸放緩，到了十月才出現向下調整，但調整的幅度僅一成以內，市中心地段和港島的住宅尤其站得穩。
其實，樓市調整早有預兆，早在今年賣地結果中顯示。六月政府拍賣土地，半山波老道的豪宅地王由長實以116.5億港元投得，遠低於測量界預期的 152億港元。到了八月，政府拍賣沙田九肚山的大型豪宅地皮，五分鐘內就被唯一的競投者以底價55億元投得，奪得財團是由信和置業、嘉里建設、萬泰製衣組成，一口價成交，較市場預期低16%。兩項拍賣結果均反映發展商對前景日益審慎，事實也證明他們的眼光不錯。
今年下半年樓價急速調整，令人措手不及。根據美聯物業提供的土地註冊紀錄及數據，上半年每月的二手物業買賣平均為7000至一萬宗，下半年急跌至每月不足5,000宗，到了十月和十一月，成交更分別跌至3,939及3,727宗。
相比之下，一手住宅單位買賣活躍得多，十月登記的交易宗數為811宗，十一月更達1,184宗。
美聯物業首席分析師劉嘉輝說：「今次樓市放緩了很多，情況較2008年金融海嘯後更差。」
他說：「由於成交大跌，2011年的二手樓宇成交量約為6.7%，遠低於去年的11.2%。額外印花稅及銀行收緊樓按的影響，現在逐漸浮現，打算換樓的業主，現在也不得不把計劃暫擱。」
劉嘉輝估計，今年二手住宅成交量將較去年大跌四成。
然而，比較之下，一手樓市場今年卻表現不俗，發展商推出大量新盤，其中的表表者為長江實業、信和和新地。
今年推出的大型樓盤，包括長實位於大圍的名城及將軍澳的領凱；新地推出位於將軍澳的天晉及九龍塘的瓏璽；信和推出位於九龍塘的逸瓏及白石角的天賦海灣等多個新盤；嘉里推出位於黃大仙的現崇山及港島的西浦；而永泰亦推出位於大坑的瑆華。
過去數月，市場都被一手盤佔據，發展商以較貼市的價格推出新盤──新單位售價接近二手樓，溢價10% 至20%而已，而不是如年頭的四至五成。
「住宅成交量大跌，樓市陷入低潮。不論投資者或用家，入市時都極為審慎；」中原物業研究部聯席董事黃良昇說。
隨着投資者對政策發展的憂慮，以及按揭貸款利率的增加，還有全球經濟不明朗及消費意欲降低等壓力，預料樓市短期銷情緩慢。
Appetite for opulence
環球豪宅前瞻
In an environment permeated by bad news for property markets globally, luxury housing is proving its mettle.
According to the latest Knight Frank House Price Index, which tracks the performance of the world’s mainstream housing markets, zero growth was recorded in the three months to September. This was the index’s weakest performance in two years, raising fears that it could enter negative territory by the year’s end.
The report cites mounting pressures on the global economy, with no end in sight to the euro zone debt crisis. Renewed fears of a double-dip recession, not just in Europe but around the world, have been reflected in the performance of global housing markets.
However, amid the gloom, luxury housing markets appear to be better insulated from this new weaker phase than mainstream markets. The report found this is due in part to the scale of global wealth generation, the continuing search for safe-haven investments and the growing divide between prime markets worldwide. Among those luxury markets that have slowed, Asia is the most affected, says Kate Everett-Allen, of Knight Frank’s international residential research team. “Here, the flood of cheap money brought about by a surge in domestic wealth and stimulus measures in the United States and Europe was followed by a wave of monetary tightening measures to squeeze inflation. As a result, the annual price growth of luxury homes in Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai now stands at 7.8 per cent, minus 6.8 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively, down from 19.7 per cent, 15.8 per cent and 29.7 per cent a year earlier.”
And it’s not over yet. After two years of growth, Knight Frank expects further cooling ahead. Its 2012 forecast is evenly split, with 44 per cent of the cities monitored forecast to see price falls and 44 per cent likely to experience price rises.
The other 12 per cent are expected to remain unchanged. Although a growth forecast in any city may seem surprising given the economic turmoil, Knight Frank says the critical factor is a lack of high-quality new supply. “We expect this to be particularly evident in London, Paris, Moscow, Nairobi and Kuala Lumpur,” it says.
Two hot spots, where prices are tipped to rise by 10 to 20 per cent next year, are Bangkok and Moscow. Other markets expected to grow are St Petersburg, Kiev, Beijing, Nairobi and Paris – all by 5 to 10 per cent – and London, Rome, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta – by less than 5 per cent.
萊坊環球房屋價格指數顯示，截至9 月底前3個月的價格指數出現零增長，為該價格指數自2009年第2季以來表現最差的一次，更令人擔心今年年底價格將有可能呈現負增長。
報告指出，在可見將來，歐洲政府看來仍無法解決歐債危機，使第3季全球經濟面臨巨大壓力，也重新喚起市場對歐洲乃至全球經濟雙谷衰退的恐慌。經濟前景的不明朗因素，很自然地在全球住宅市場的表現反映出來。
即便全球經濟不景氣，豪宅物業市場卻在房地產市場的低迷中較為穩定。萊坊的報告認為，全球財富持續增長、投資者繼續尋找資金「避風港」及世界不同豪宅市場之間的差距日益擴大等，成了豪宅表現仍然優於大市的關鍵因素。」
萊坊國際住宅研究部的Kate Everett-Allen指出，在豪宅價格增長放緩的地區中，亞洲地區最受影響。她說：「在亞洲，隨著財富急增，市場上充斥大量所謂的平錢，但在歐美政府出台了經濟刺激方案後，令通脹升溫，隨之而來的卻是另一輪的貨幣緊縮政策以抑制通脹。因此，按年計，香港、新加坡和上海的豪宅價格增長分別放緩至 7.8%、-6.8%及3.8%，比去年同期錄得的19.7%、15.8%及29.7%年增長率，大幅回落。」
萊坊認為，豪宅在經歷兩年的漲價後，在短期內難免會出現調整。萊坊預測，在該公司監測的城市中，約44%城市的豪宅價格有可能在明年下降，同時約44%的城市的豪宅價格卻有可能上漲。至於其餘12%的城市，萊坊預測豪宅價格將保持平穩。
雖然在目前的經濟環境下，預測任何一個城市的豪宅價格將出現上漲，看起來不大合情理。不過，萊坊認為導致價格上升的另一主要因素實為豪宅供應不足。 Kate Everett-Allen補充道：「供應不足令價格上升的情況，在倫敦、莫斯科、內羅畢和吉隆坡尤其顯著。」她更預測曼谷和莫斯科的豪宅價格在2012 年的上升幅度可達10-20%。
其他預計將出現價格上漲的城市還包括聖彼得堡、基輔、北京、內羅畢和巴黎（5-10%），以及倫敦、羅馬、吉隆坡和雅加達（低於5%）。
