私宅价格涨幅收紧

龚慧婷 (2011-10-04)

欧美局势不明朗，本地私宅价格在第三季虽然还在上涨，但涨幅已连续第八个季度放缓。不过，在强劲需求带动下，大众私宅的价格的涨势加速。 　　市区重建局刚公布的第三季私宅价格预估数据显示，价格涨幅已从今年第二季的上涨2％，收紧到只上涨1.3％，挺进到205.7点的历史新高位。 　　齐乐行研究与咨询部门主管王德辉认为，私宅价格上涨1.3％是意料中事，因为这反映了市场因供应增加而价格逐步放缓的情况。 　　王德辉指出：“从09年中的市场低谷至今，私宅价格已上涨了54.3％，加上金融市场动荡，（买家）对已在巅峰徘徊的价格有更大的抗拒心理。” 　　世邦魏理仕执行董事李晓和则认为，这显示价格已趋向稳定。 　　欣乐国际执行董事麦俊荣相信，私宅价格的涨幅在过去两年逐渐放缓，部分原因是金融市场越来越不明朗所导致。 　　在第三季，价格上涨最快的依然是代表大众私宅的中央区以外（OCR），价格从第二季的上涨1.7％，加快到上涨2.1％。 　　分析师认为，这主要是因为大众私宅在市场上还是“抢手货“、目前借贷利率又低、加上还有积压需求的缘故。 　　王德辉指出，在今年第一季，大众私宅领域售出的单位，占总数的53％，第二季增加到61％，7月和8月分别占68％。 　　一些卖得不错的新大众私宅和中档私宅，如：优和苑（euHabitat）（中位数价格是每平方英尺1015元）、The Luxurie（每平方英尺1053元）、Seastrand（每平方英尺930元）和Thomson Grand （每平方英尺1300元）。 　　李晓和相信，这可能带动了大众私宅和中档私宅的价格增长。 　　代表高档领域的核心中央区（CCR）和代表中档领域的其他中央区（RCR），则因为需求没有那么强劲，价格涨幅收紧或横摆。 　　高档私宅价格从第二季的上涨1.6％，第三季收紧到只上涨0.8％，中档私宅的价格涨幅则维持在1.1％的增长水平。 　　高力国际研究与咨询部主管谢岫君指出，以高档私宅来说，这也是自09年第三季当市场首次回弹以来，迄今最小的高档价格涨幅。 　　李晓和也指出，在2011年的前九个月，私宅价格指数已上涨了约5.6％，比去年同期上涨的14.4％低了不少。 　　他认为，最近股市大滑坡，以及全球经济放缓的消息打压了市场情绪，他因此相信，第四季对新房子的需求应该会放慢，而任何价格上涨也会很小。 　　谢岫君则认为，一般来说，本地的经济情况还能“支撑”买家对私宅的买气。然而，潜在买家估计会对价格更谨慎；另一方面，发展商预计也不会急着降价，因为健康的需求还为价格稳定度提供一定的支撑力。　　 　　但莱坊咨询与研究部主管方宝顺认为，若我国突然陷入严重的经济衰退，私宅价格或许会下调，但估计跌幅也会相当小，每年不会超过5％。 　　昨天出炉的预估数据，是根据第三季首10个星期的私宅买卖禁令计算出来的，完整的官方数据将在本月底公布。 《联合早报》 Time to relook property cooling measures, say analysts October 4, 2011 ⋅ Property watchers said a shortage of resale flats amidst strong demand is accelerating price growth. While some said more time is needed for new flats to be built, others think it is time to review the property cooling measures. Resale flat prices, which are already at an all-time high, rose 3.8 per cent in the third quarter this year – higher than the 3.1 per cent recorded in the second quarter. Since property cooling measures were introduced last year to take the heat off the exuberant market, the number of transactions have dropped significantly. Property firms said the number of deals closed have dipped by 30 per cent compared to a year ago. Market watchers said there has been a slow down in the supply of flats, as home owners are put off by the rule that requires them to sell off their flat first before they are granted a higher bank loan of 80 per cent. Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer at ERA Realty, said: “Most sellers prefer to buy first, then sell. For people who do not qualify for HDB loan and they have to take a bank loan, they only would be able to get a maximum 60 per cent loan. And therefore there is a requirement for 40 per cent equity.” HDB resale flats have also been generating good rental yield. Industry players said they have seen a spike in rental transactions and it is unlikely that home owners will give up their HDB flats, adding to the supply crunch. Tan Kok Keong, Head of Research and Consultancy at OrangeTee, said: “Some segments of the public housing can be rented out. Every unit that’s kept from the market means that one new household does not have the choice to buy that public housing.” Mr Tan also pointed out that the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) before flats can be rented out used to be one to three years. For home owners who bought a flat in 2008 or 2009, before the MOP was raised to five years, they would have been able to rent out their flats and use the yield to pay for a second mortgage on a private home. The government has increased the supply of new flats to draw first-time home owners away from the resale market. But there is a limit to how much demand can be diverted – first-timers account for a quarter of resale transactions. And not all are willing to wait the two and a half years for a new flat to be built. With such market conditions, sellers are commanding higher cash premiums – adding to the overall transaction price. Industry players said the median cash-over-valuation (COV) is about S$35,000 to S$37,000, similar to the previous quarter. To ease the supply crunch, there was a suggestion to relax the criteria for a bank loan for those just looking to upgrade. Mr Lim said: “I think when the 60 per cent rule was implemented, the objective was to instil prudence in the buyers. But if you look at the practical point of view, if I’m selling my flat to buy another flat, eventually I will still end up with one property and one mortgage.” If the shortage situation is not resolved, market watchers expect resale flat prices to inch up by another three to four per cent in the last quarter of this year. This would bring the overall price increase to more than 10 per cent in just one year – which makes owning a flat an increasing financial burden. Source : Channel NewsAsia – 4 Oct 2011