国际产业顾问：大众化私宅均价首次过百万

李敏雯(2011-09-23)

　　国际产业顾问（IPA）的最新研究显示，本地大众化私宅平均价格首次越过100万元大关，今年第二季卖出的大众化私宅中28％超过1000元的尺价，其中超过一半是未完工单位。

　　国际产业顾问总裁邱瑞荣说，这意味着，本地私宅在100万元的价位有很强劲的支持，即使欧美经济局势恶化，中高档私宅价格也将能在该价位的基础上继续坚挺。

　　他也指出，在2007年的房地产高峰期，代表大众化私宅的中央区以外（Outside Central Region，简称OCR），平均售价只有每平方英尺600元，今年第二季已达到887元。

　　不过市场供应最充裕的热区在榜鹅、盛港和白沙，面对价格下调的风险也正在加大。

　 　国际产业顾问公司与新加坡公寓有限公司（Singapore Condo Pte Ltd）发布的最新研究数据显示，今年第二季，每个位于中央区以外、即大众化私宅平均成交额首次达到103万元，高于首季的98万9000元。该报告是根 据市区重建局的转售禁令所得的数据，这包括发展商售出的新私宅和转售私宅。

　　这个总价自去年第一季开始，一直呈上升趋势，从90万9000元逐渐攀升至今年次季的103万元。

　　今年第二季，大众化私宅平均面积达1157平方英尺，较前个季度的1122个有所增加，但整体上私宅平均面积大小自去年首季开始就呈下跌趋势。

　　也是房地产畅销书《Real Estate Riches》作者的邱瑞荣说，投资者一般上已对每平方英尺1000元的郊外公寓司空见惯。

　 　靠近裕廊湖区的湖畔雅居（The Lakefront Residences）第二季的售价介于每平方英尺940元至1352元。4月至6月间，Clementiwoods在转售市场的尺价为每平方英尺990 元至1071元。实里达路的The Greenwich售价也超过每平方英尺1000元。

　　不过以供应量来看，供应最集中的热区榜鹅、盛港和白沙新镇，占了私宅总供应量的四分之一，即8102个单位。若将组屋供应一并考虑在内，这些地区的供应量将上扬到总体住宅市场供应量的38％，即约2万8000个单位。

　　邱瑞荣认为，这个情况令人担忧，因为该区的基础设施如轻轨、周围设施等都还没有到位，届时这些地区的拥挤情况可想而知。

　　总而言之，邱瑞荣认为大众私宅的门槛已经抬高，他建议最好还是把眼光锁定在中央区屋龄五至十年的公寓为好。

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《联合早报》
（编辑：杨丽娟）

Oversupply risks in Outside Central Region

September 23, 2011

The outlook for the Singapore residential property market lacks clarity and the murkiness does not seem to be clearing any time soon. Investors are looking for signals, direction and leadership. One major topic of discussion that has gained traction over the past year is pipeline supply.

It began with a discussion about the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s quarterly reports on the expected completion of units, and recently, there seems to be wider acceptance that the coming supply will be massive. But questions remain as to where the potential oversupply will be and whether it will lead to price declines.

In my previous contributions to Today, “Massive Supply to hit outskirts” (June 24) and “Let’s take a closer look at the numbers” (July 8), I highlighted concerns that the oversupply in 2013-2015 will be weighted towards the mass market segment, or Outside Central Region (OCR). Since end 2009, price increases in the OCR have outpaced the other two areas: Core Central Region (CCR) and Rest of Central Region (RCR). The price increases were partly caused by new launches in the OCR that were priced at a premium to the neighbouring projects.

OCR market hots up

The rising prices in the OCR fed upon themselves. Almost all of the Government Land Sales were concentrated in the OCR and as the new projects launched sold fast and prices achieved new highs, developers were more willing to bid higher for land. These led to higher costs which meant that the new launches had to be priced even higher.

Data compiled by property agency Singapore Condo shows 3,931 apartments and condominium units changed hands in the OCR in 2Q2011. Some 28 per cent of these transacted at S$1,000 per sq ft or higher and the average price per unit in OCR rose past S$1 million. Mr Vince Chen, chief investment officer of Singapore Condo, said 175 units, or more than 4 per cent, sold above S$1,300 psf and that more than half of the properties transacted were still under construction.

Investors are used to seeing residential prices around S$1,000 psf across Singapore. However, most would be surprised that significant numbers transacted in OCR have increased to these levels. During the previous peak four years ago, OCR locations were transacted at S$600 psf on average and today, they are at S$S887 psf.

Punggol, Sengkang and Pasir Ris stand out

The numbers in Table 2 and Table 3 indicate continued strength in OCR transactions and prices. Yet the risks seem compounded when we view the rising prices alongside the threat of oversupply in OCR. Three adjacent planning areas, when taken together, stand out as having the highest concentration of residential units in the pipeline: Punggol, Sengkang and Pasir Ris.

Some 25 per cent, or 8,102 units, of the private home supply within OCR (32,751 units) is concentrated in these three areas. The proportion rises to 38 per cent (estimated 28,000 out of 74,185 units) when we include the strong supply of public housing.

We must be mindful that this is a simple snapshot of the seemingly high supply and a casual observation that the concentration of this supply falls within the three planning areas of Sengkang, Punggol and Pasir Ris. Without a detailed look at population growth and potential demand, we are not able to infer that it may translate into downward pressure on prices.

However, one point does worry me: With 28,000 households coming up in Sengkang, Punggol and Pasir Ris, will the quality of life be compromised? Will there be enough schools and medical facilities in these neighbourhoods? Also, will the already stretched transport infrastructure in these areas be tested to the extreme?

I leave you to digest the data and draw your own conclusions about the risks. In the next few years, I will be sticking with the five- to 10-year-old properties in the central regions.

By Ku Swee Yong – founder of real estate agency International Property Advisor. He is the author of Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore’s Property Market in a Volatile Economy.