港府考虑再度出招遏制楼价

（2010-11-16）

● 戴庆成 报道 香港 　　随着海外热钱持续流入香港，香港住宅楼价不排除会再上升四成。港府财政司司长曾俊华强调，当局在有需要会再度出招。 　　据悉，港府将参考新加坡政府做法，考虑向短期转让楼宇征收额外印花税。 　　瑞银亚洲房地产研究部主管王震宇昨天表示，面对美国次轮量化宽松政策影响热钱流入、通胀压力及中国经济快速增长，即使2012年底前，香港息口有机会上调2%，香港住宅楼价仍然有望有40%的升幅。他认为这是一个可以接受水平。 　　该行最看好香港办公楼价格及租金走势，主要是考虑到需求持续，加上受政策影响风险较低，预测2012年底前香港办公楼价格及租金各有60%及40%升幅。 　　至于住宅价格及租金，则预期分别有40%及15%增长；零售店铺价格及租金则有25%及20%上升空间。 　　面对楼价不断攀升，港府财政司司长曾俊华前天指出，自从港府和金融管理局今年先后推出多项措施，令楼市健康平稳发展，措施已初见一些成效。 　　但在美国和日本再次推出新一轮量化宽松货币政策的背景下，曾俊华担心楼市泡沫的风险有可能进一步上升，尤以随着“量化宽松”而来的投机炒卖，可能会进一步刺激泡沫风险。 　　曾俊华强调，资产泡沫涉及巿民的福祉，港府必须正视有关问题，继续监察最新情况，并提高警觉，在有需要时毫不犹豫地推出新一轮的措施，以确保宏观经济和金融系统的稳定性。 曾俊华： 小投资者须小心风险 　　他呼吁市民，尤其是小投资者须小心风险，避免过度借贷和炒卖，以防日后市场突然逆转时蒙受损害。 　　曾俊华在文章中特别提到，新加坡推出了一连串防止楼市过热的措施，包括增加土地供应和向一年内转售的楼宇征收税款。 　　据了解，港府研究打击炒楼的措施，包括提高印花税及按揭成数；预料向短期转让楼宇征收额外印花税，会是港府打击炒楼的方向。 　　昨天，曾俊华会见记者时再次重申，会密切留意楼市发展，并在有需要时采取适当措施。 　　不过，对于港府未来可能会透过增加短期楼宇买卖税收来遏止炒风，王震宇认为，有关做法实效不大。 　　他解释，设立炒卖税收或印花税来增加成本，仅能暂时纾缓楼价的升幅，不能扭转升势及遏止炒卖行为。 　　王震宇表示，美国及日本等国相继推次轮量化宽松政策，启动印钞机，欧洲债务危机忧虑重燃，货币泡沫引致资产泡沫恶化，造成竞争性的货币贬值，惟因联汇未能脱勾，香港息口必须紧随美国。 　　“若要抗通胀及纾缓楼市过热情况，港府应尽快增加土地供应、缩短新盘预售期限，甚至拨出公屋用地，以缓和土地紧张的情况。” 　　他认为，港府应尽快把今年未推出的住宅用地推出，甚至可加码供应，来纾缓买楼压力。 《联合早报》

IMF sees rising risk of bubble in HK housing  November 19, 2010  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday warned of increasing risks of a property bubble in Hong Kong amid continued liquidity inflows and rock-bottom interest rates and urged the city’s government to take further measures to rein in the booming real estate market. The IMF said that while the city had returned to robust growth, it saw rising inflationary pressures fuelled in large part by soaring property prices and a stronger Chinese yuan. “These pricing pressures will become increasingly visible in the coming months with inflation expected to reach around 5 per cent by end-2011,” said the IMF. The organisation said it expected Hong Kong’s gross domestic product to expand 6.75 per cent this year, with the growth moderating to between 5 and 5.5 per cent next year. The IMF said that Hong Kong dollar’s exchange rate pegged to the US dollar would create challenges in preventing inflation and property price bubbles. The peg means Hong Kong essentially imports the currently very low interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve. “Hong Kong has monetary policy determined by the US in an economy growing much faster than the US,” said Mr Nigel Chalk, a senior advisor of the IMF. “Our concern isn’t now, it’s a prospective concern. You could end up where the property market starts to deflate, prices going down, but payments on household mortgages are going up. It becomes harder to pay your mortgage on an asset that has less value,” he said. Hong Kong home prices have climbed about 50 per cent since the start of last year, surpassing a 1997 peak that was followed by a six-year deflationary slump. Hong Kong Monetary Authority head Norman Chan said yesterday: “We are fully aware of the risks of an acceleration of the credit-fuelled asset cycle,” Since April, the government has raised stamp duty on some home sales, increased down-payment ratios, stopped offering residency to foreigners who buy property in the city and increased land auctions to boost supply. Source : Today – 19 Nov 2010 Hong Kong sets commercial property record Tue, Nov 09, 2010 AFP HONG KONG - Hong Kong's commercial property prices have soared to a historic high, the city's biggest realtor said Tuesday, frustrating government efforts to cool one of the world's priciest real estate markets. A 79th floor unit in The Center - a downtown skyscraper owned by Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing - recently sold for 338 million Hong Kong dollars (S$56 million), or about 25,580 Hong Kong dollars a square foot, according to government data. "This is the highest commercial property price per square foot in Hong Kong's history," said Peter Chan, senior regional sales director of Hong Kong's largest property agency, Centaline. Government records show the unit was sold in late October to Excel Fine Holdings, which local reports say is a Korean investment fund. Chan said the southern Chinese city's commercial real estate prices will likely continue to rise over the next six months. "There is definitely potential for prices to rise beyond present levels," he told AFP. "Right now, the vacancy rates of offices is very low... I expect to see more record prices in the next six months," he added. Another office unit in the city sold in October for 24,950 Hong Kong dollars per square foot, according to the Chinese-language Sing Tao Daily. Hong Kong has also claimed top spot in the world for the most-expensive office rent at US$161 (S$207) per square foot, according to a real estate review by Colliers International for the first half of 2010. The Global Office Real Estate Review put London in second spot at US$130 a square foot and Tokyo in third at US$101. Hong Kong accounted for four of the 10 largest commercial real estate transactions in Asia-Pacific during the third quarter, Peter Mitchell, head of the Asia Pacific Real Estate Association, was quoted as saying by Hong Kong broadcaster RTHK on Tuesday. Asia-Pacific reversed a downward trend by posting 20.8 billion US dollars worth of transactions in the third quarter, 44 per cent higher than in the previous quarter, the Singapore-based Association said. The latest property data come amid fears of a property bubble in Hong Kong, a densely populated city of seven million that is also famous for its sky-high residential rents. A Hong Kong tycoon paid about US$233 million, or US$8,750 a square foot, for a property in the city's upmarket Peak area last year. The chief of Hong Kong's de facto central bank warned earlier this month that a recently announced stimulus package to kickstart the US economy could escalate the city's already overheated property market. Hong Kong's government has unveiled a host of measures aimed at reining in the property market, including holding land auctions to boost supply and tightening mortgage lending. Luxury home prices in the former British colony recently topped their pre-Asian financial crisis peak in 1997, according to government data released in October. Average prices for homes of at least 100 square metres (1,100 square feet) were 14 per cent above what they fetched before the 1997 downturn, according to the figures.