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曾荫权:政府不是打击楼市 是要防止泡沫化

(2010-10-13 15:06:26) 下一个

Hong Kong’s leader on Wednesday outlined new steps to cool the world’s hottest property market, including a halt to automatic residency for rich buyers, in the face of simmering public anger.

The residency measure will particularly hit wealthy investors from mainland China, whose buying spree in high-end apartments has done much to stoke fears of a new bubble in the Hong Kong economy.

Chief Executive Donald Tsang said he was responding to public anxiety about a residential housing shortage and rocketing prices, during a legislative assembly session during which one lawmaker stormed out of the chamber.

Some 200 protestors shouted slogans and waved placards outside the Legislative Council, demanding more public housing and decrying the control of private property developers over the market in land-starved Hong Kong.

Before storming out, lawmaker “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung threw a polystyrene clock at Tsang, arguing that time was running out for elderly people forced to live on meagre savings in the absence of state pensions.

Noting that property prices have risen 20 per cent in the past year, Tsang said in his annual policy address: “Housing is currently the greatest concern of our people.

“Over the past few years, private housing supply has been relatively low. We should address the fundamentals by increasing land supply in response to market demand.”

Tsang announced plans to build residential property on the city’s old airport, Kai Tak, which was closed down in 1998. The prime harbour site remains undeveloped as the government cleans up heavy aviation pollution.

He also said the government would consult the public on proposals to reclaim land elsewhere than the crowded Victoria Harbour, which has steadily diminished down the years due to property development, angering environmentalists.

Tsang said the government would adopt a temporary amendment to Hong Kong’s Capital Investment Scheme, preventing investors from gaining residency in the territory through property purchases from October 14.

Mainland investors have long been lured by the prospect of residency in Hong Kong, a financial centre and gateway to China that is run under a different legal system and boasts higher living standards.

The speech sent share prices in major property developers plunging before the sector recovered much of its lost ground. SHK Properties finished down 0.59 per cent and Sino Land fell 0.12 per cent.

Simon Smith, head of research at consultancy Savills Valuation and Professional Services, said the measures would have a limited impact.

“The new policy measures are fairly conservative,” he told AFP.

“I think the effect will be modest. It is the government’s intention to gently head off the bubble, it is not easy to do. In this global environment, the government is anxious not to tip over the market.”

Property prices in Hong Kong have surged nearly 45 per cent from their trough at the end of 2008, while prices of some luxury flats have returned to, or surpassed, the peaks of the 1997 boom.

Public anger was on display outside as Tsang spoke inside the British colonial-era Legislative Council.

“With property prices soaring to new heights, the poorer sections of society have no hope of buying their own apartment,” protestor Penny Keung told AFP.

“The government should help alleviate conditions for the poor instead of catering to the interests of big businesses,” she said.

In August, the government said it would further increase land supply and tighten mortgage lending to avert a property bubble. While that dented the volume of property transactions, prime land still goes for giddy amounts.

On Tuesday, demonstrators interrupted an auction of an upmarket residential site in the Kowloon area that fetched a record 1.63 billion Hong Kong dollars (210 million US).

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 13 Oct 2010

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HK’s property cooling measures may attract more mainland Chinese investors to S’pore

The latest property cooling measures in Hong Kong may prompt more mainland Chinese buyers to turn to Singapore as a destination for property investments.

Market experts said this may in turn cause property prices here to escalate higher and it could even spur another round of cooling measures.

Colin Tan, who is Head of Research & Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, said: “Every time cooling measures are applied in China and in Hong Kong, we can expect Chinese property investors to redouble their efforts in their search for alternative places to invest, and Singapore continues to climb up higher on their list.”

Experts said Chinese buyers formed about 16.4 per cent of foreigners that bought Singapore properties this year, with a total value of around S$1.4 billion.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of Residential Services at Credo Real Estate, Liang Thow Ming, said that Hong Kong’s tightening efforts could also have a psychological impact on buying sentiments in Singapore.

This may be in the form of heightened fears of additional cooling measures introduced in Singapore’s property market.

Still, most analysts believe that the overall impact of the measures will be limited as not many Singaporeans invest in the Hong Kong property market.

Donald Han, who is managing director at Cushman and Wakefield, said that “Hong Kong is not a hot-bed for Singaporean investors”.

Mr Han added that traditional Singaporean investors tend to go for property markets such as Australia and the United Kingdom, where property cycle movements are less drastic.

Measures outlined by Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang on Wednesday include a halt to automatic residency for wealthy Chinese buyers, effectively preventing investors from gaining residency in Hong Kong through property purchases.

This will be effective from Thursday.

Mr Tsang was responding to public concerns in Hong Kong about a housing shortage and property prices spiralling out of control.

Average home prices in Hong Kong have climbed by 15 per cent so far this year.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 13 Oct 2010
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Mainland appetite for Hong Kong homes rising: survey
Thu, Oct 14, 2010
AFP

HONG KONG - Hong Kong has seen a surge in mainland Chinese buying luxury homes in the territory, according to a survey published as the authorities move to limit inward property investment.

Mainland investors have long been lured by the prospect of residency in the former British colony, a financial centre and gateway to China that is run under a different legal system and boasts higher living standards.

Influxes of mainland investment have contributed to a 20 percent rise in residential property prices in the last year, city chief Donald Tsang acknowledged on Wednesday as he announced measures aimed at cooling the market and alleviating public concern.

In a new report, real estate agency Centaline estimated that for the first half of this year 35.1 percent of new home sales worth over 12 million Hong Kong dollars (1.5 million US) had been to mainland buyers, up from 22.5 percent in the second half of 2009.

The agency, which publishes regular property market surveys, acknowledged that mainland investment might now be constrained by a move announced by Tsang that will suspend granting residency to outsiders who invest in property.

"Some mainland buyers will inevitably be put off by the changes to the scheme announced yesterday. After all, buying property is a key way to gaining residency here," said Centaline's managing director for residential sales, Louis Chan.

He predicted a five percent drop in the number of mainlanders purchasing high-end property.

However any expectations of a more dramatic drop in mainland Chinese coming to invest in Hong Kong's property market might be misplaced.

Wong Leung-sing, a fellow researcher at Centaline, noted there had been no move to limit the issuing of residency rights for those making other kinds of large investment.

"Mainland investors still have a lot of ways of gaining residency in Hong Kong," said Wong. "They can invest in the stock market for example.... I foresee the luxury property market remaining strong."

Property prices in Hong Kong have surged nearly 45 percent from their trough at the end of 2008, while prices of some luxury flats have returned to, or surpassed, the peaks of the 1997 boom.

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How Chinese laws will affect Singapore

With Beijing acting to cool red-hot domestic market, sellers here could benefit from influx of Chinese buyers

Within days of Beijing announcing new measures to cool the overheated property market, thousands of people have been flocking to housing shows in big and small cities across China. Strong enthusiasm was seen in the property shows in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Nanning, though sales were lower compared with last year.

The Chinese authorities had ordered local banks to demand a downpayment of at least 30 per cent from all mortgage applicants and to suspend loans to buyers of third homes on Sept 29.

Following the move, Shanghai, one of the country’s top-tier cities, issued new rules to limit home buyers to one new apartment and will impose a revised land appreciation tax soon.

While some analysts foresee a drop in prices in the coming months, property agents say initial signs suggest buyers are still not taking the measures seriously. Buyers react relatively calmly this time, compared with April when they disappeared in a flash.

Is this irrational behaviour or what?

‘Noise’ in the market

Economists have an explanation for this. Almost all of them agree that an excessively loose monetary policy – with interest rates kept low for too long invariably leads to asset inflation and this includes property.

At the micro level, individuals cannot comprehend this. It does not help that there is a lot of “noise” in the market. Instead they see rising asset prices – of houses, stocks, bonds – touted as a reflection of the real wealth being created.

At a seminar on Asia’s property markets last month, a speaker said exuberance in the Asian property sector is hard to rein in once the market has accelerated. Despite government cooling measures, he said the inflow of money from the United States and Europe into Asia will continue.

On the local scene, we are seeing buyers slowly returning as developers push out more projects. In the aftermath of the latest cooling measures, the current market sentiment dictates that developers either go for sales or prices. The majority appear to go for prices. Not surprisingly, sales have slowed but are showing signs of improving.

Meanwhile, developers continue to bid for land and secure redevelopment plots from collective sales even as they know future supply is growing ever larger. When will it stop? I think not, if there continues to be reasonably healthy buying.

Although sales of HDB resale flats have cooled, I am still not sure whether prices have or will correct in the short-term. Looking at the statistics, the fresh supply of resale flats will get worse before it gets better.

This number is fixed by the number of flats the HDB has completed over the past five to seven years. They are available for resale once the minimum occupation period of five years have been fulfilled.

Is the clampdown on buying of resale flats for investment sufficient to turn the market? It depends on how big this component was before the measures were announced. Of late, we have seen some of these monies go into HUDC flats.

As for the upper end of the private housing market, the enthusiasm is still missing from this segment although there has been a number of high profile record-setting buys mostly by foreigners.

This is because there are currently two sets of sellers in this segment: The developers themselves, and investors who have bought in the run up in 2007. Then record sales of more than 14,000 units were sold mostly in this segment.

However, there may yet be a chance that this segment may see better days in the coming months as Chinese nationals appear to be slowly making their presence felt in this segment.

This is to be expected as the Chinese authorities introduced more and more cooling measures in their home country.

Official figures show that the number of caveats filed under Chinese nationals have been rising from 358 in 2008 to 1,052 in 2009 and to 1,127 from January to September this year. As a percentage, excluding corporate buyers, the corresponding percentages are 2.78 per cent (2008), 3.38 per cent (2009) and 4.51 per cent (January to September 2010).

Their presence in Singapore and property markets worldwide may rise as the appreciation of the Chinese yuan picks up pace.

As a rule, buyers buy in places where they are familiar with and at the moment, Hong Kong and Singapore figure very high on their buying list.

By Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.

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