3 Trends
(2008-11-03 21:30:22)
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Chart Setting: 50SMA+15EMA according to Barry. 2 MA's are enough and no need to add more to be confused. Switch the time interval to see different pictures with the same averages.
(1) Primary Trend: This is 50SMA on Weekly Chart.
15EMA above 50SMA means BULL, otherwise BEAR. MA crossing means the trend change. the tracement of 15EMA should not cross 50SMA to keep the trend. Be extremely cautious when it crosses. Bar may touch or even cross the 50SMA line, however 15EMA should not cross. When it crosses, the more right the angle, the stronger the break.
Primary Trend goes for years. Normally 3 years to possible 3 decades.
(2) Secondary Trend: Counter Primary Trend. Easy to measure on weekly charts.
Height measurement: based on Fib retracement, it normally between 38.2% and 61.8% and on average 50%. For the extreme, it may touch 23.6% or 78.6%, but no more.
Time measurement: It normally last for 3 weeks to 3 months.So it should be at least 3 bars on weekly chart and at most 3 bars on monthly chart.
(3) Daily Trend:
Daily movement, the trend normally lasts for 3 days to 3 weeks, no more. 6 days on average.