汪翔
随便想想
人们对苹果的疯狂意味着什么
目前的股市似乎并不是在按照公司内在价值在进行交易。美国的股市也大有消息市的味道，每一天，每一个神经紧张的股民们，都在跟着一个个自己没谱，也没法预测的消息在那里买和卖。头一天，股市大涨，自己跟着买进股价已经高走不少的热门股。第二天，股市大跌，自己又“不得不”割肉出货。第三天，股市再次高涨，自己又得花更多的钱将头一天卖掉的股票买回来。就是在这种自我折腾之中，大量的真金白银送给了股票经纪人和交易商。
每一个迹象似乎在证明，美国经济已经开始了全面的复苏。
在中国一再收紧货币之后，投资者又开始担心：中国这个世界的发动机，会不会在这一次次的收紧之后熄火死掉？如果中国经济停滞不前，那么，我们这个紧随其后的美国经济，是不是也该昙花一现，寿终正寝了？
如果你相信美国经济在复苏，那么，你就应该趁大家恐慌的时候，累积点发展潜力大，估值合理甚至有点低估的股票，而不应该在那里没完没了的当“ DT ”。除非你真的能够从中获得乐趣。
从目前的市场反应看， MA ， AAPL ， PCLN ， NFLX 、 CME 都是一些市场热门的股票， GOOG 则在标准普一再推荐的情况下还是一再低走。而百度则在高歌猛进飞翔之后，被标准普从“卖出”提升到“买进”的级别。
先不谈这些市场的宠儿，单就苹果公司看， $256 美元的股价， 21.7 倍的市盈率，和 2011 年度 $15 美元的每股盈利预期，看来，标准普 $300 美元的目标价估计有点保守。
苹果的新玩意刚刚出货，在国际市场还没有开始卖。可是，就有不少的人在美国零售市场按照市价购买，然后在其本地销售还可以大赚特赚。这一消息到底意味着什么呢？
如果经济真的是按照现有信息所显示的走向健康向前，那么，今后几年之内股市的赢家之中会不会继续有着苹果公司的大名呢？
附录： "Gray-Market" IPads Selling Fast Across Asia
5/5/10 | Dow Jones
HONG KONG (AFP)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) hasn't yet officially launched the iPad in Asia, but that hasn't stopped a booming "gray market" trade in the world's most talked-about high-tech gadget.
The company said Monday that it had sold a million iPads in 28 days, and thousands made it to Asia.
From Singapore to Seoul, Bangkok to Beijing, iPads are on sale--for a substantial mark-up on the U.S. retail price.
In Hong Kong, computer malls are doing brisk business.
"We get them from the U.S.," said Carl Lee, a salesman at a computer shop in Mongkok Computer Centre.
"But if you want one, get one quick--Apple is restricting buyers to only two iPads per credit card in the States and we don't know how much longer we can get them."
The store could get 15 of the basic 16-gigabyte models "within a day," he said, for HK$5,700 Hong Kong (about $733) each.
The same model retails in the U.S. for $499.
Another salesman, Jay at Concept Digital in the same computer mall, offered to get up to 30 of the same model "within half an hour" for about $710 each.
In Low Yat Plaza, one of Kuala Lumpur's centers for cheap electronics and gadgets, every other mobile phone stall had iPads for sale.
"We have the 16GB, 32GB or 64GB version, how many do you want?" asked vendor Caryn Lee. Prices ranged from $750 to $1,100.
"Our shop is quite big so we have been able to bring in several hundred over the last month."
Most sellers said they got their iPads from a few dealers with small retail shops in the U.S., and one said Apple's failure to supply the device outside the country was fueling the unofficial trade.
"It is not illegal to sell the iPad and if Apple doesn't bring them in to Malaysia, we will continue to do so as the demand is very, very high," said phone dealer Low Fun Meng, who sold 70 iPads last week.
Dozens of vendors are selling iPads at stalls in Bangkok's MBK mall for similar prices.
The stallholders aren't the only ones doing the selling. Two Americans in the mall held a duffel bag with four iPads they had brought over from the U.S. in the hope of cashing in on the boom.
"We'll make about 100 bucks a pop, 150 bucks a pop. It defrays the cost of the one I got myself," one of the men said.
"It's a hassle bringing them over. I had to whack out three grand on my credit card to get them."
The other man said, "You know, it's a risk. If you get stopped at customs, you'll have to pay a duty that pretty much takes away your profit."
The iPad is made in China and Taiwan, so the ones on sale in Beijing and Taipei have had a long journey home.
Alan Lee, who owns a small electronics shop in Taipei's Guanghua Digital Plaza, had sold out.
"The iPad is the most popular Apple product ever. We're approached by customers every day asking about the availability," he said.
China's gray market in Apple products developed to satisfy demand for the iPhone, which only officially went on sale in the Asian giant in October--more than two years after its U.S. launch.
At the Buynow electronics store in downtown Beijing, iPads were selling for between $700 and $1,000.
"We started selling them around 10 days ago and have only three left now," said a saleswoman at one booth, adding she had had a stock of less than 100.
She said the iPads came through a distributor in the southern city of Shenzhen, on the border with Hong Kong.
An Apple spokeswoman wouldn't comment on gray market sales, which are fueled by the fact the iPad isn't currently available through official Apple stores outside the U.S.
The level of demand in the U.S. since the iPad's launch April 3 forced Apple to delay the tablet's international release by a month.
"Demand continues to exceed supply and we're working hard to get this magical product into the hands of even more customers," Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs said Monday.
The first non-gray-market iPads were set to be on sale at the end of May in Japan and Australia.
However, the rest of the Asia-Pacific region will have to wait--and Apple won't yet say for how long.
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