汪翔
随便想想
美国房地产负资产最严重的十个州
一场金融危机，以追寻美国梦开始，以搞定安乐窝为目标，在一个全世界都狂热的岁月，没有人在乎人们的经济承受能力。在美国学习经济学的人都明白那个“可负担得起”的广告语，实际上，在多数情形，你最终得到的却是“负担不起”！
经济学理论的忽悠，和商家为了各自利益的配合，造就了美国当前严重的房地产市场危机的持续。从直觉来看，既然在泡沫时代造了大量的房子，那么，在今后很多年就会有大量的人们，无法承担得起的房子在市场上像幽灵一样徘徊，和吊人胃口。
不同的是，现在，即使利息率非常之低，房价也非常的有吸引力，而且还很容易杀个好价，但是，能够获得贷款的人却还是为数极少。你只能看，不能摸的日子，过起来自然不会很舒畅。特别是在银行加强了贷款发放标准的审核之后。
信誉就是价值，是对每个人都价值巨大的无形资产。在享受了一次“便宜”的“免费午餐”，做了一场“白日梦”式的房主之后，很多人可能最终还是没有搞明白，为什么自己需要在乎那个看不见摸不着的“信誉”？！
下面这些来自宏观的数据，对于我们理解美国的房地产现状具有很大的价值。比如说，即使是在名列第十名的弗吉尼亚，在印象中经济应该非常发达的这个富裕州，总体看，4285亿美元的地产市场市值，房贷占有3075亿美元，占到71.8%。“资不抵债”的比例为23%，得益于中间房价的下跌只有区区16.7%（从巅峰到现在的平均值）。
感觉上，这个州得益于就近华盛顿特区，和高科技的繁荣，对于房价的下跌，应该有很强的抗跌性。但是，即使如此，他们那里的“负翁”也还是能够被排在前十名！
最差的内华达州，值得自豪的，除了赌城拉斯维加斯之外，恐怕就只有沙漠和那里的毒蛇了。有一年，我曾经开车带着来个国内的老朋友，在拉斯维加斯附近的沙漠上游荡了好几个小时，想找点有趣的地方，结果却发现了好几个军方的检查站！
就是在那里，在那个人人都很疯狂的买房年代，很多自己认识的人，也居然带着一袋袋的绿钞票，赶去那里，期望自己能够成为淘金的幸运者。
结果，几年下来，原本富裕的日子，成为打水漂漂。最终，很多人选择放弃房子，留下钥匙，一走了之。即使是从总体数据看，966亿没有的地产价值，也还是不及1099亿美元的银行贷款来的多。如果将地产价值理解为合理的，并且，理解这种价值的80%为安全的贷款额度，那么，银行在那里的贷款亏损，将还有326亿美元的苦果在等着。
再者，在美国赌场到处开花的今天，拉斯维加斯的日子，只会越来越差，不会再有昔日的风光了。任何期待回光返照的人，最终收获的，可能就是苦酸的白日梦。
所以说，银行的苦日子，还远没有过去。而银行都依然过的这么苦，整个经济的完全复苏，也会跟随着增加了很多的变数。
内华达州中间房价从最高峰到现在平均下跌了60%，61%的住户是“负翁”，由此你能够看出人们的愚昧和银行的愚蠢，外加华尔街的贪婪。（具体的金融危机来源什么的，有兴趣看看我的《危机与败局》（商务印书馆，2010年版））。
当然，这里给出的宏观数据可能和你看到的微观数据有点不一致。但是，我觉得，对于你理解房地产的大局，还是很有帮助的。
为了理解福罗里达州的地产现状，我曾经在电话里和长期住在那里的一位女士交谈过：她说，30%的下跌还是有的，50%是有点太夸张了一点。
这种差别的存在，还是得看小区。同时，还和人们内心深处的希望有关系：很多人不愿意面对现实，希望实际上正在发生的，比自己眼睛看到的，要好些，借此来自我安慰。
继续借花献佛！
States Sunk by Underwater Mortgages
March 6, 2012
10. Virginia
> Pct. homes underwater: 23%
> Total property value: $428.46 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $307.48 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 16.7% (21st-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 4.1% (ninth-smallest percentage)
According to CoreLogic’s Q4 2011 report, 23% of Virginia’s mortgaged homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their property is worth. An additional 6% are on the verge of being underwater. Compared to many of the markets that have large numbers of upside-down homeowners, Virginia was not one of the worst-hit markets by the housing collapse. Despite the high percentage of underwater mortgages, the rate of mortgaged homes in delinquency or foreclosure is one of the lowest in the country. One of the reasons for this is the ability of homeowners to remain solvent. Virginia has an unemployment rate of just 6.2%, the 11th lowest in the country, as well as low poverty and high median income.
9. Ohio
> Pct. homes underwater: 23.9%
> Total property value: $310.62 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $238.20 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 14.4% (23rd-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 6.9% (14th-largest percentage)
Of the 2.2 million mortgages in the state of Ohio, more than 525 million have negative equity, and an additional 134 million are on the brink of being underwater. As of the end of 2011, 6.9% of homes in the state were either currently in foreclosure or have been delinquent for 90 days or more on payments. The total value of all mortgaged homes in the state is $310 billion, and outstanding mortgage debt for those homes is $238 billion. This loan-to-value ratio, 76.7%, is the sixth highest in the country.
8. Maryland
> Pct. homes underwater: 24.3%
> Total property value: $418.34 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $296.81 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 23.7% (12th-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 8.0% (tied for fifth-largest percentage)
Like those in Virginia, Maryland’s residents appear to be in good financial shape, despite the fact that nearly one in four mortgaged homes are underwater. Median income in the state is the highest in the country and the poverty rate is the third lowest. However, this has not been enough to save a large percentage of state residents from financial troubles. Some 8% of mortgaged homes are either in foreclosure or at least 90 days delinquent on their mortgages, tied for the fifth-highest rate in the country.
7. Idaho
> Pct. homes underwater: 25.0%
> Total property value: $49.76 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $36.58 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 29.3% (sixth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 5.2% (20th-smallest percentage)
Like Maryland, nearly one in every four Idaho homes are underwater, although the financial situations of the two states could not be more different. Idaho has the 13th-lowest median income in the country, above-average unemployment and a poverty rate of 14.3% (compared to Maryland’s 9.1%). Since its peak in the first quarter of 2011, home prices in the state of Idaho have fallen nearly 30%. According to Gallup’s recent consumer confidence poll, Idaho residents had the third-lowest confidence in the national economy of any state.
6. California
> Pct. homes underwater: 29.9%
> Total property value: $2.73 trillion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $1.94 trillion
> Median home value drop from peak: 46.7% (third-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 7.0% (12th-largest percentage)
As of the fourth quarter of 2011, there was $8.7 trillion in mortgage debt nationwide — $1.94 trillion of that, or 22%, is located in California. Nearly 30% of California’s mortgages are underwater, and 16.1% of mortgages are worth less than 80% of their debt. From its prerecession peak in the first quarter of 2006, home values have fallen 46.7% and are projected to fall an additional 4.2% by the third quarter of this year.
5. Georgia
> Pct. homes underwater: 33.0%
> Total property value: $306.59 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $252.81 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 26% (10th-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 8.0% (tied for fifth-largest percentage)
One-third of mortgage owners in Georgia have more mortgage debt than their homes are worth. Since the home values peaked in the state in 2007, prices have declined 26%. The state has the ninth-most mortgaged homes in the country and even more homes underwater. At 540,000 it has the fourth-most underwater mortgages of any state. Georgia’s unemployment rate is the ninth-highest in the country.
4. Michigan
> Pct. homes underwater: 34.7%
> Total property value: $198.05 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $165.45 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 30.1% (fifth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 6.5% (19th-largest percentage)
Michigan’s economy and housing market was already in bad shape leading up to the recession, and things have only gotten worse. The state experienced a net loss in population between 2000 and 2010, the only state that lost residents during the period. Unemployment has improved somewhat in the past few years, but it is still the tenth-highest rate in the U.S. Michigan home value began to decline before the recession hit, after peaking in 2005. Since that time, home prices have dropped by 33%.
3. Florida
> Pct. homes underwater: 44.2%
> Total property value: $809.95 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $706.00 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 44.8% (fourth-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 17.4% (the largest percentage)
No state has a larger gross vacancy rate than Florida, standing at more than 20%. When the housing market flourished, the state geared up for the impending retirement of millions of baby boomers by constructing tens of thousands of new homes. When the market collapsed, real estate investments in the state were hit hard. Florida’s home value has plummeted by more than 40% — the second largest drop in the country — and nearly one in two mortgaged homes are underwater.
2. Arizona
> Pct. homes underwater: 48.3%
> Total property value: $243.02 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $226.22 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 47.9% (second-biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 7.1% (11th-largest percentage)
Through the first half of the decade, states like Nevada, Utah and Arizona experienced record growth in population, business and, as a result, new construction. Conditions reversed in 2008, and the states that once led in property value growth and employment, like Arizona, fell through the floor. In the third quarter of 2006, Arizona had median home value of $254,655. To date, that value has dropped by more than $100,000. Some 48.3% of all mortgaged homes are now underwater.
1. Nevada
> Pct. homes underwater: 61.1%
> Total property value: $96.57 billion
> Mortgage debt outstanding: $109.94 billion
> Median home value drop from peak: 60% (the biggest decline)
> Homes in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent: 13.4% (second-largest percentage)
Like Arizona, Nevada’s property value has plummeted since the middle of the decade, losing more than $150,000 on average (more than 50%) in just five years. Nevada is also the only state in the country in which total homeowner debt is actually higher than the total property value of owned homes — nearly two in three mortgaged homes are underwater. As of the end of 2011, 13.4% of mortgages were either already in the foreclosure process or more than 90 days delinquent on their payments.
-Michael B. Sauter
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