谷歌650美元，你相信码？

谷歌650美元，你相信码？

 

由于和中国政府对垒失败，谷歌的股票在2010年开年不利。那么，如果从纯粹经营的角度看，你觉得谷歌值得你投资吗？

对于中国市场的撤出，不管谷歌给出的是什么理由，从经营的角度看，我都觉得是一种非常愚蠢的选择。好死不如赖活着，谷歌应该好好体味一下这句话的意思。中国市场对于任何一家搜索引擎公司来说，都是不可以放弃的。放弃意味着自杀。如果有一天中国真的能够（可能性很大）取代日本成为下一个“日本”，那么，谷歌再后悔就来不及了。这一放弃，给谷歌带来的长期经济损失估计在百亿美元以上。

撇开中国市场因素，谷歌的价值到底值几何？下面这篇文章说是650美元，我的估计是不止这点。对于今天的投资者来说，特别是那些喜欢科技公司的投资者来说，如果你不持有部分谷歌的股份，可能也会是你今后让你后悔的一件事情。

我自己持有这家公司的股份，也一直觉得现在的估价比较低廉。如果从五年的时间段来看，你会发现，目前是一个“伟大”的机会的。

在谷歌撤出中国市场之后，雅虎花巨资做广告，希望接受谷歌撇下的客户。不少人就此觉得，是投资雅虎的好时候。雅虎作为一家“二流”企业，毕竟还是“二流”。对于这些忠诚的客户来说，谷歌所做的，也实在是太自私自利了一些。以自己价值观为主导，而不顾顾客的需要，这种经营行为本身也是可圈可点的。

 

谷歌三年股价变化图

 

附录：Google seen posting sharp profit, sales gains

4:28 PM ET 4/8/10 | Marketwatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to report sharp gains in first-quarter profit and sales when it posts results after the market's close next Thursday, as the Internet search giant is seen benefiting from an expanded mix of online advertising and a rebound in spending.

Wall Street analysts expect Google (GOOG) to report earnings excluding items of $6.56 a share for the period ended in March, and $4.9 billion in net revenue, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters.

That compares to earnings excluding items of $5.16 a share, and $4.1 billion in net revenue in the same period last year.

However, the sales forecast is flat compared to the prior period ended in December, when Google saw $4.95 billion in net revenue.

Like many other companies, Google was compelled by the economic downturn to tighten its belt, cut employees and focus on its core business of search.

Unlike many other companies, Google managed to weather the downturn fairly well, and Wall Street has been anticipating that it will be an early beneficiary of a recovery in spending on online advertising.

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Jordan Rohan told clients in a research note that Google should report a "solid" first quarter, thanks in part to the deployment of additional paid advertisements in search results, and to new advertising formats.

New formats recently deployed by Google include images -- a departure from the company's traditional, text-based advertisements.

In addition, Rohan wrote that demand for paid search keywords in the travel and financial industries "has returned to normal seasonal levels" following a decline.

Those industries should help make up for the typical decline in the first quarter of demand for retail-related keywords, which are popular during the holiday season in the prior, fourth quarter.

Of particular interest to analysts and investors will be Google's reported first-quarter rate of "paid clicks," or the number of times Internet users click on the company's sponsored links and produce revenue.

Broadpoint AmTech analyst Ben Schachter told clients in a research note published Thursday that the prices paid by advertisers for those clicks likely saw a "positive impact," thanks to the economic recovery. "We expect a strong quarter," the analyst wrote.

Schachter has a $650 price target for Google shares.

The shares were trading Thursday afternoon at $567.63 and have fallen roughly 6% in the past three months. During that same period, the Nasdaq Composite Index $COMPQ has risen roughly 5%.

Google's first quarter has been overshadowed by controversy over its operations in China. Google announced in January that had been hit with a cyber-attack originating in China, and as a result would seek to no longer comply with local rules mandating the censorship of search results related to politically-sensitive topics there.

Last month, Google said talks with Chinese authorities about the issue had come to naught, and it began routing visitors to its mainland China site to a Hong Kong-based site that delivers uncensored results.

Thomas Weisel Partners' Rohan told clients that concerns over the withdrawal from China are "overblown," adding that Google's revenue from China did not amount to more than $150 million for all of 2009.

"Monetization in China has always been a challenge for Google," Rohan wrote.