114亿人民币的损失该怪谁

114亿人民币的损失该怪谁           

金融危机中，中国国有金融机构通过投机金融衍生品，亏损高达114亿元人民币（实际结果可能更高），中国政府指责美国的金融机构搞欺骗，给中国金融机构设陷阱。

            这种指责很有意思，也很滑稽。

这年头，我不知道哪家金融公司靠搞“慈善”事业得以发家成长，而能够成为巨人的。金融市场就是一种博弈和格斗的战场。谁能够不流血和少流血，谁就是英雄，那里不是弱者和小孩子玩过家家的地方。

在刚刚完成的长达三十万字的《格林伯格传：金融航母的缔造者》（名字最后可能会变）里，我很无情地深入分析和解读了，格林伯格所领导的美国国际集团，当初是在如何玩弄中国的。读起来可能会让一些人觉得，我太小看中国人的智慧了。那么，结合一下这个114亿元的亏损，再结合一下我在《博弈时代》里面分析的很多中国金融机构所做的“难以理解”的行为和它们的结果，可能就会有人不得不同意我的看法了。 

我写传记，从来就不太在乎“传主”怎么想和怎么解释他自己的行为。

所以，对于人们问我“有没有采访过本人”的问题，我一直不屑一顾。我写的是评传，是基于自己的理解所获得的解读。

我在解读传主行为的理性和合理性，站在他自己的立场。这可能就是我写的传记的与众不同之处吧。在写作《格林伯格传》时，好几次都有冲动和格林伯格联系一下，获得一点“内部”消息。但是，最后还是觉得没有必要。我的书是写给中国人看的，是为中国人提个醒，让大家别睡得太深沉。

我的很多分析和解读，不可能会让这些美国佬开心和高兴。因为，我说了太多的实话，虽然很多听起来让自己觉得中国人很低智商。我希望这不是事实，但是，我又不得不强迫自己承认，那就是事实。可悲！ 

在金融市场，我一直觉得，中国的金融机构就像是一个贪婪的三岁小童。

幼稚和功夫不到，结果肯定是让自己吃亏。

而贪婪和不知天高地厚，则让这种幼稚给对手提供了更多的机会来宰割你。

如果你实在是不明白这个无情的事实，读读我的《博弈时代》吧，虽然不知道哪一天它才能够出版，虽然不知道有哪些内容最后能够真正让读者读到。至少我很早就交稿了，而且，我也觉得自己的解读很真实和独到。 

这个世界不相信眼泪，也不在乎流血！

如果你还有胆量，站起来，舔干身上的鲜血，战斗吧！中国。

你没有第二条选择之路。

你的智慧才是你真正的最好伙伴。 

【附录】Chinese official raps foreign banks on derivatives

December 4, 2009 

BEIJING (AP) - A senior Chinese official criticized foreign banks for selling derivatives with "fraudulent characteristics" that led to heavy losses for state-owned airlines and other companies.

"Some international investment banks are the biggest villains," said Li Wei, deputy chairman of the agency that oversees China's biggest state companies, in a newspaper published by the school of the Communist Party's Central Committee.

The commentary in this week's edition of the Study Times was the Chinese government's most pointed public criticism yet of foreign financial institutions. Li's agency said in September it would support companies that want to challenge the contracts in court.

Li made no specific accusations against individual banks. But he noted that airlines and shipping companies suffered huge losses on fuel contracts bought from Goldman Sachs Group, Merrill Lynch — now a unit of Bank of America Corp. — and Morgan Stanley, while banks bought derivatives from Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

He said Chinese companies were to blame for most of their losses but complained that derivatives tied to oil prices and other commodities or investments were too complex and made potential risks too hard to identify.

"Of course, first of all we need to find problems in the companies themselves," Li wrote in the front-page commentary. "But it also is largely related to international investment banks maliciously peddling high-leverage, complex products with fraudulent characteristics."

Some 68 of the 136 major banks, airlines and other companies directly controlled by the Cabinet invested in derivatives and recorded book losses totaling 11.4 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) by the end of October 2008, according to Li.

Spokespeople in China for Goldman, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch declined to comment.

Li's agency, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, oversees 136 major banks, insurers, phone carriers and other companies including China Telecom Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and China National Petroleum Corp.

Li said Chinese companies still should use derivatives but should comply with regulations and shouldn't "give up eating for fear of choking".