投资花旗银行风险何在

投资花旗银行风险何在

            花旗银行要还钱。对于纳税人是一件好事。至少和在美国国际集团那里做遭受的巨额亏损相比，在花旗头上，纳税人毕竟还是小赚了一笔。这一则是来自已经获得的利息收入，再则就是可能的股价上涨。 

         金融危机时刻，美国政府向花旗注入了450亿美元“救济款”。其中有250亿美元被转换成花旗34%的股份。这样算下来，如果在明年政府能够按照900亿美元的花旗市值卖掉这部分，获得的将是306亿美元，尽赚56亿美元，也有22%以上的回报，也几乎是每年10%了。

            花旗是不是已经健壮得可以下床独立行走？

是不是真的不再需要政府的救助就能够继续生存下去？

如果再来一场“不期而遇”的震荡，花旗会不会就此死掉？

这是人们在谈论的问题。

            花旗的帐大家可以去算一算。 

美利坚银行还钱之后，标准普马上就将其投资评级提示到最高的五星——强力推荐，和可口可乐，沃尔玛一个等级。

而同样乐滋滋的花旗银行，至今也还是一个三星级，似乎这是一个“礼节性”的级别。花旗的200亿美元的增发新股，将极大地稀释现有股东的权益。

问题是，对于一个生存都很困难的花旗银行，它又能够拥有怎样的选择呢？

200亿美元可能相当于25%左右的新股增发，再加上明年政府要投放市场的政府手里的34%股份（稀释前比例），即使机构投资者大量增加持股量，结果会是一个什么样子的呢？

现在投资花旗银行可能是一个机会，同时，风险也很多、很大。

给以4-5年时间，花旗会不会是一个上涨到8美元，也就是上升一倍左右的公司？

我们可以拭目以待。

上升到40美元应该是没有机会的，除非世界末日已经到来。如果是，那么，人类又为什么需要股份呢？或许可能是，既然是末日来临，留着现金也没有什么用，还不如显示一下自己的慈悲。

【附录】Citi To Raise At Least $20.5B In Capital To Pay Back TARP

12/14/09，DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

After weeks of wrestling with its regulators and the Treasury Department, Citigroup Inc. (C) succeeded in its argument that it needs to exit the Troubled Asset Relief Program, but the conditions show that regulators continue to be worried about the health of the financial giant.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government plans to sell its 34% stake in the bank within the next year.

Shares fell 3% premarket to $3.83.

Unlike any other banks that have repaid the aid so far, Citi has to replace the $20 billion of TARP funds that remained on its balance sheet entirely with fresh capital. The government and banking regulators demonstrated that, at least for now, they decide the conditions for TARP exit on a case-by-case basis, and are willing to set tough conditions.

Citi, however, will feel liberated. It can demonstrate publicly what is has been building on behind the scenes: A large global bank whose growth and expansion will be largely overseas rather than in the United States.

Citi will sell at least $17 billion in stock, with the potential of up to $2.55 billion more, and sell $3.5 billion of so-called equity units to repurchase the $20 billion in trust preferred securities held by the government.

The $20 billion repayment will result in an approximate $8 billion pre-tax loss for the bank. Citi also will end the $301 billion loss-sharing agreement with the government and cancel $1.8 billion of the $7.1 billion in trust-preferred securities it had originally issued to Washington as consideration for the benefits of the agreement, which will result in a $2.1 billion pre-tax loss.

The U.S. Treasury will concurrently sell up to $5 billion of the common stock it holds in a secondary offering, and the government will sell the remainder of its shares "in an orderly fashion" over the next six months to a year.

"We owe the American taxpayers a debt of gratitude and recognize our obligation to support the economic recovery through lending and assistance to homeowners and other borrowers in need," said Chairman and Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.

Citi said that by Dec. 31, it will have paid or accrued $3.1 billion in dividends and interest to the government on TARP investment.

The bank also said that in January it will issue $1.7 billion of common stock equivalents to employees "in lieu of cash they would have otherwise received."

It wasn't all that long ago that Citi was facing humiliating talk of nationalization and its share price swooned to 97 cents in March from a record $55 in 2006. The unraveling of Citi's shares began as the bank suffered writedowns of more than $30 billion two years ago from risky mortgage bets, forcing the ouster of CEO Chuck Prince.

The government engineered a multi-step bailout, including two cash infusions last year that injected $45 billion into Citi. The government this year agreed to convert $25 billion of TARP preferred shares into common stock, giving the U.S. a one-third stake in the company.

Citigroup also has remodeled itself to help fortify itself against losses. In January, the bank reorganized itself into two separate units - placing retail and investment banking into a revived Citicorp name, and its brokerage and asset management operations into Citi Holdings.