to Amily7805, please read my blogs on abk, mbi

abk and mbi are very similar. They are both speculative, recent economy development is helpful, the litigation on undocumented/unqualified home loan issued during housing bubble by banks is helpful, recent government segregation of RMBS account from muni bond insurance account on abk is helpful on abk, since it ensures an orderly run off, it also brings pressure on abk\'s related parties whose account were put into segregated accounts so that they become more eager to settle with abk since they can\'t get paid with direct cash. but since AAC (abk\'s subsidy) can\'t pay dividend to abk once the segregated account is established, abk will have liquidity issue coming 2011 3Q, (or 2Q). ABK is working on refinancing its debt to avoid the liquidity issue. Once the dust is settle down on segregated account, things become clear, it will be helpful for abk to refinance on its debt. I heard from somewhere that Junk bond market have recovered completely, read this post:

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=28403284&sort=whole

The near future catalysts for abk to soar maybe good news from refinance, Q1 report, settlement/cancellation on RMBS/cdo insurance contracts. One thing though, abk has already includes a $2 billion in its book on future recovery from related party on put backs of illegible loans under its insurance contracts, which I think is aggressive accounting. I am just an engineer, you major in finance, you are more professional on this, I guess.

ABK has a negative book value, which is a big warning sign.

I think recent market is kind of hot, but momentum can run for quite a while once its established, that is why I avoid short term trading, I am shy when I am guessing.