chipmonks2009-05-28 14:43:53回复悄悄话
回复longtermInvestor的评论:
Don't bet on which market moves. I only go with the market.
I guess we r all small investors. Disadvantages of value investing for us are lack of inside info, not knowing the true company valuation, limited money to go cost down, inefficient use of money, lack of patience & etc. That's why I don't do value investing. I take the ride of the market to get income stream. Sitting /w stocks to collect dividend only works when the econ is booming.But I admire your patience to be a value investor
longtermInvestor2009-05-26 18:07:08回复悄悄话
I do not have a system, it is value investing, stock by stock. If I think this stock is undervalued, I will buy. if it dropped, and story does not change, I will buy more. if the price rises, but story gets better faster, I will buy more too. Simple strategy. I do not try to guess how market will move next day or next month, but sometimes I can't control myself and do some silly guessing. :)
chipmonks2009-05-25 23:05:50回复悄悄话
回复longtermInvestor的评论:
If u believe ur system can give u consistent returns over time, then it's a good one for u. As an outsider looking in, I definitely would not do the things that you do. My system is an optimized version of CANSLIM. I'd like my stocks/money work hard when I'm in the market. That way, when market goes up, my portfolio goes up too. I know my return will be market-performed or outperform market.
Just a friendly reminder, if Tuesday (5/26) S&P 500 drops below 886, should consider close out ur positions to avoid the risk of a big correction. I already sold everything last Thursday. Avoiding risk is more important than staying in for the potential extra 1% or 2%. It's a risk/reward factor.
I am busy recently, could not get back to you. On the other hand, it is not easy to justify my bullishness on those stocks. I will try to explain a little more:
First, I like business with strong moat, namely other company can not reproduce their business model. loop, faro, nuan, nile, have strong moat. Second, I like business with good management team. I think loop, faro, nile's management teams are good. Nuan is doing rapid expansion by gobbling up its competitors, it is a risky move which leads huge success or big failure. It is hard to tell now if they are brilliant or stupid.
I agree that high roe is a good indicator, but it is just an angle, it does not carry the whole story. Also roe could vary during different period of a business's life cycle. The stocks I like are young small growth stocks. ROE may not be a good indicator for a kid, maybe better for big, stable companies like RIMM. RIMM is a good company in a good growing business, it is just that there are too many great companies it is fighting with, and it is already pretty big.
chipmonks2009-05-16 22:38:09回复悄悄话
longtermInvestor,
You left the following msg:
"I pay much more attention on FA than TA. As you mentioned before on good quality high tech, these are some of my favorites: loop, nuan, faro, nile, cryp, bbbb ... I own some of them, looking to buy others."
I took a quick look at FA of the stocks. Sorry, they seem to have various issues:
loop: neg growth; nuan: neg profit margin, neg ROE; faro: neg growth; nile: neg growth (but I like the high ROE); cryp: can't find Q earning on Yahoo; bbbb: low ROE.
I would not touch those stocks based on my system. I only pick high growth (>50%) & high ROE, etc. To give an example, I have RIMM & GMCR in my holdings.
But the pt is not bragging abt whose holding is better. I'd like to talk abt investment strategy, market & econ conditions. Once you know where the economy and market are heading, picking the right stocks will be trivial. My system is to: 1. identify the global econ trends; 2. Know where the market stands in terms of biz cycle; 3. Use FA to identify the right stocks in the right sectors, and use TA to find the right entry/exit points. I find that once #1&2 are understood, #3 will come by easily.
Don't bet on which market moves. I only go with the market.
I guess we r all small investors. Disadvantages of value investing for us are lack of inside info, not knowing the true company valuation, limited money to go cost down, inefficient use of money, lack of patience & etc. That's why I don't do value investing. I take the ride of the market to get income stream. Sitting /w stocks to collect dividend only works when the econ is booming.But I admire your patience to be a value investor
If u believe ur system can give u consistent returns over time, then it's a good one for u. As an outsider looking in, I definitely would not do the things that you do. My system is an optimized version of CANSLIM. I'd like my stocks/money work hard when I'm in the market. That way, when market goes up, my portfolio goes up too. I know my return will be market-performed or outperform market.
Just a friendly reminder, if Tuesday (5/26) S&P 500 drops below 886, should consider close out ur positions to avoid the risk of a big correction. I already sold everything last Thursday. Avoiding risk is more important than staying in for the potential extra 1% or 2%. It's a risk/reward factor.
I am busy recently, could not get back to you. On the other hand, it is not easy to justify my bullishness on those stocks. I will try to explain a little more:
First, I like business with strong moat, namely other company can not reproduce their business model. loop, faro, nuan, nile, have strong moat. Second, I like business with good management team. I think loop, faro, nile's management teams are good. Nuan is doing rapid expansion by gobbling up its competitors, it is a risky move which leads huge success or big failure. It is hard to tell now if they are brilliant or stupid.
I agree that high roe is a good indicator, but it is just an angle, it does not carry the whole story. Also roe could vary during different period of a business's life cycle. The stocks I like are young small growth stocks. ROE may not be a good indicator for a kid, maybe better for big, stable companies like RIMM. RIMM is a good company in a good growing business, it is just that there are too many great companies it is fighting with, and it is already pretty big.
You left the following msg:
"I pay much more attention on FA than TA. As you mentioned before on good quality high tech, these are some of my favorites: loop, nuan, faro, nile, cryp, bbbb ... I own some of them, looking to buy others."
I took a quick look at FA of the stocks. Sorry, they seem to have various issues:
loop: neg growth; nuan: neg profit margin, neg ROE; faro: neg growth; nile: neg growth (but I like the high ROE); cryp: can't find Q earning on Yahoo; bbbb: low ROE.
I would not touch those stocks based on my system. I only pick high growth (>50%) & high ROE, etc. To give an example, I have RIMM & GMCR in my holdings.
But the pt is not bragging abt whose holding is better. I'd like to talk abt investment strategy, market & econ conditions. Once you know where the economy and market are heading, picking the right stocks will be trivial. My system is to: 1. identify the global econ trends; 2. Know where the market stands in terms of biz cycle; 3. Use FA to identify the right stocks in the right sectors, and use TA to find the right entry/exit points. I find that once #1&2 are understood, #3 will come by easily.