comparison of 2000 crash and today market

In 2000, SP500 drop from 1527 in Oct. 2000 to 800 in Oct. 4th 2002. It tooks 2 years.
An interesting fact is it goes to 850 in July 2002, and then up to 940 in about a month and then south again.
Now SP500 have drop from 1561 in Oct 12, 2007 to 899 today (reached 850 during the day).
If history repeats, we should see some rebound to 1000 and then drop again to below 800.

 

In 2000, Dow dropped from 12000 in Oct 2000 to 7500 (-38%).

Now Dow dropped from 14000 in Oct 2007 to 8450 (-40%).

From the drop percentage, it seems to see the bottom. But in 2000 it first dropped to 8100 in July 2002 and then bounced back a to 8800 in about a month. We haven’t seen such bounce yet.

 

In 2000, Nasdaq dropped from 5048 in March 2000 to 1139 in Oct 2008.

But Nasdaq increased from 2300 in March 1999 to 5048 in one year.

If we remove this increase, the decrease of Nasdaq is about 50%

Today, Nasdaq has dropped from 2800 in Nov 2007 to 1649 (it reaches 1542 in the middle of day).

 

In 2000, XLF dropped from 29 to 19.

Now XLF has dropped from 38 to 15.10 (today’s low is 12.8). Looks like it is a bottom already. If it dropped to below 10, it is a good time to buy.

 

All in all this is close to a bottom but we should see a deeper one after a re-bound.