刘以栋 随想录
股票市场是一个大千世界, 有时有些个人观点, 斗胆写出来. 期望起个抛砖引玉的作用. 不到之处请多指教.
正文
*************** Play with your own risk *********************************
1) S&P – short-term very very oversold and we may see an intermediate term rally at any time. One day soon there may be a catalyst that will carry a rally into May.
2) Gold – Short-term correction may well continue, but should not last too much longer before old highs in 1040 range are taken out. The downside currently is probably limited to the $880-900 range.
3) Commodities - Short-term are in a bottoming phase and probably have little downside left. Any significant weakness should be used as an opportunity to accumulate.
Longer-Term:
1. The S&P can go much lower term – especially in REAL terms even if a bottom is reached in NOMINAL terms.
2. The US $ will ultimately collapse, therefore US$ based assets should be avoided at all cost. Use the current rally in the US$ to sell American interests.
3. Gold will ultimately trade at a level of 1 to 1 the Dow or greater. Longer term objective of gold would be at least $3,000-$5,000, and considerably higher should the Dow begin a sustained NOMINAL recovery.
4. All other commodities – but particularly agricultural products will be the place to be as the East (China/Asia) leads the World out of this downturn.
5. If you must own stocks at this point, I would only be buying Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, along with some interests in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, and Taiwan. Also some of the emerging markets in the Pacific Basin such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam hold long term promise as well.
1) S&P – short-term very very oversold and we may see an intermediate term rally at any time. One day soon there may be a catalyst that will carry a rally into May.
2) Gold – Short-term correction may well continue, but should not last too much longer before old highs in 1040 range are taken out. The downside currently is probably limited to the $880-900 range.
3) Commodities - Short-term are in a bottoming phase and probably have little downside left. Any significant weakness should be used as an opportunity to accumulate.
Longer-Term:
1. The S&P can go much lower term – especially in REAL terms even if a bottom is reached in NOMINAL terms.
2. The US $ will ultimately collapse, therefore US$ based assets should be avoided at all cost. Use the current rally in the US$ to sell American interests.
3. Gold will ultimately trade at a level of 1 to 1 the Dow or greater. Longer term objective of gold would be at least $3,000-$5,000, and considerably higher should the Dow begin a sustained NOMINAL recovery.
4. All other commodities – but particularly agricultural products will be the place to be as the East (China/Asia) leads the World out of this downturn.
5. If you must own stocks at this point, I would only be buying Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, along with some interests in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, and Taiwan. Also some of the emerging markets in the Pacific Basin such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam hold long term promise as well.
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