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理由： 1， 天然气价格现在处于历史最低位。应该是接近坚实的底部。 2. 天然气库存量虽然很高， 但这个有滞后效应。 3. 很多天然气小公司已经破产， CHK 也宣布 减产， 出卖资产。 SLB， BHI等宣布大量裁员，rig count 数 已经创新低（392），不及高峰的1/4，基本 回到页岩气开发前的水平， 产量下降势在必行。 4. 美国天然气需求是持续增长的， 2015 发电用天然气比2013增长大约20%， 这个不要被媒体误导， 好像天然气成臭狗屎了。 5. 天然气现在价格远远低于成本， 据过去资料， 大多数成本价在$2.5-3 左右, 少数更低 或更高。 随着高成本的供应商退出， 价格回升是必然趋势。 6. 现在天然气价格是过度超卖状态， 是趋势所致的所谓“trader slaughter" ， 从基本面上必然回归正常合理范围。 美国天然气比欧洲低 好几倍， 从基本面看， 半年左右应该回到$2.5-3. 当然，继续在低价位波动一段时间也有可能，但最终必须回归正常。 如果开放天然气出口， 供求关系将会根本转变。 7. 股市， 大宗商品，油价的反弹也会带动天然气反弹（这条最弱）。 转：Natural gas use for power generation higher this winter
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on Bentek
So far this winter, natural gas consumption in the electric power sector (gas burn) has been higher than in any previous winter. According to Bentek Energy, gas burn in the electric power sector has averaged 25.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far this winter (November 1 through February 8), up 17% from last year's average of 21.4 Bcf/d during the same period and significantly higher than the 18.8 Bcf/d average of the past five years. Low natural gas prices have been the primary driver of increasing natural gas use for power generation, although reductions in coal capacity and the availability of efficient gas-fired generating units have also played a role. On an annual average basis, the electric power sector is the largest consumer of natural gas, using more than the industrial sector and each of the buildings sectors (residential and commercial). Although consumption of natural gas in the power sector peaks during the summer—when electricity demand is highest—the power sector's natural gas consumption during the winter has been increasing as more generation switches to gas and more households rely on electricity as a main heating source. Spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, a national benchmark, averaged $2.61 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2015, the lowest annual average level since 1999. Prices began the year relatively low and continued to fall throughout 2015—the December average was $1.93/MMBtu, the lowest monthly price since March 1999. Relatively low natural gas prices encouraged the increased use of natural gas to generate electricity. EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook expects natural gas prices to increase over the next two years, leading to a slight reduction in the consumption of natural gas for power generation. However, power-sector consumption of natural gas would still be near historically high levels. Capacity factors of natural gas-fired plants have been rising for years, and over the past several months, capacity factors for natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants have finally eclipsed coal-fired plants as natural gas is increasingly used to generate electricity. Capacity factors reflect a generator's actual output compared with its capacity, and they are a measure of how much a fleet of generators is actually run. In addition to lower natural gas prices, improvements in the efficiency of new natural gas plants are helping to increase the economic attractiveness of dispatching gas-fired generation. In 2015, about 40%—6,200 megawatts (MW)—of all new utility-scale plants of 1 MW or greater were natural gas-fired plants. Another factor in the increasing gas burn is the growing number of coal plant retirements. Preliminary reports indicate that nearly 15,000 MW of coal-fired capacity was retired during 2015. 
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly
Gas burn has increased in almost all regions in the United States this winter, but the reasons for the increase vary regionally. The Pacific Northwest region had the largest percentage increase in natural gas burn because oflower-than-normal hydro generation in 2015. The Southeast and Northeast regions use the most natural gas on a regional basis, and their gas burn has increased by 17% and 15%, respectively, thus far this winter compared with the same period last winter. In the Southeast, both declining utilization rates for coal plants and continuing coal plant retirements drove the increase in natural gas burn. States in the South Census Region alone accounted for more than half of total coal retirements in 2015. In the Marcellus region of the Northeast, natural gas has consistently been priced below gas at the Henry Hub, making it even more economic in that region. Additionally, infrastructure additions have made it easier to move natural gas to users. |
"如果开放天然气出口， 供求关系将会根本转变。 " 天然气没有限制出口，但天然气不象石油，往游轮上装就行了，天然气需要液化，成本一下子翻倍都不止，加上运输等成本，出口也没什么优势了。