OE 周INDEX 的走向 by CondorQueen in hutong9

OE 周INDEX 的走向

After traded index options for many years, here is my observation during OE week. 1) check last month settlement prices of SPX DJX RUT OEX and NDX http://www.cboe.com/data/Settlement.aspx January 2009 SETTLEMENT VALUES S&P 100 (OEX): 400.96 S&P 500 (SET): 859.37 VIX Options (VRO): 49.88 Dow Jones (DJS): 83.34 Russell 2000 (RLS): 466.59 NASDAQ 100 (NDS): 1201.54 Monitoring Current price S&P 100 (OEX): 389.40 S&P 500 (SET): 826.84 VIX Options (VRO): 42.93 Dow Jones (DJS): 78.50 Russell 2000 (RLS): 448.36 NASDAQ 100 (NDS): 1201.54 for example, this month shows a slight bearish bias 2) Check option open interests at each strike prices and see where highest number resides.  These are the likely resistance or support. you can check maximum pain using the following link to see where price will mostly be settled on the expiration day http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php 3) When prior month settlement price is closed to the current price,  Index is more likely closed around that price.  However, you need to use the information from 2) to support your conclusion. 4) When prior month settlement price is much below the current price, index is more likely going down further during OE week, especially Monday and Tuesday.  MM are closing in the money put and have to sell shares you used to hedge the put.  This causes index to go down.   5) When prior month settlement price is much higher than the current price, index is more likely going higher during OE week, especially Monday and Tuesday.   MM are closing in the money calls and have to buy shares you used to hedge the call.  This causes index to go higher. 6)  When prior month settlement price is far below or much higher than the current price, index is more likely to reverse that trend during the OE week.   MM are probably losing control.  They have to reverse the market to limit either bull or bear's profit.   7) Last to remember.  In the current market.  NEWS is driving everything.  There are the scenarios that most likely happens during OE weeks but market has its own mind.   Be a chicken, don't be a hero.  Hero is always first to die.