U.S. Cotton Output Forecast May Be Little Changed, Survey Says

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government’s forecast of domestic cotton production probably will be little changed from a month earlier, according to a survey of analysts and traders.

The cotton crop estimate may be 13.19 million bales in the year ending July 31, based on the average of seven projections in a Bloomberg News survey. That would be down 0.2 percent from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August forecast of 13.21 million. The USDA is set to update the forecast at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow in Washington.

“Looking at the conditions, I haven’t seen any real reasons to raise it up a lot,” said Sid Love, president of Joe Kropf & Sid Love Consulting in Overland Park, Kansas. “The conditions are fairly close to last year, and therefore you should have the yield fairly close to last year.”

About 51 percent of the U.S. cotton crop was in good or excellent condition in the week ended Sept. 6, unchanged from the previous week, and up from 49 percent a year earlier, the USDA said on Sept. 8. In Texas, about 39 percent of the crop was in good or excellent condition, the same as the previous week.

“I’m really not hearing any new, fresh, fundamental news on cotton,” Stephanie Kinard, an analyst with Intermarkt Investment Strategists in Chicago, said by e-mail. She predicted no “earth-shattering” elements in the forthcoming forecast.

The USDA may estimate exports at 10.24 million bales, the analysts estimated. While that would be up 0.4 percent from the August projection of 10.2 million bales, it would fall far short of what John Bondurant, president of Bondurant Futures Inc. in Memphis, Tennessee, figures will be the actual shipment level.

‘Ludicrous’ Export Forecast

“The idea that exports are going to go down 3.1 million bales from last year to this year, while we’re coming out of a recession, is ludicrous,” Bondurant said. The USDA “export estimate is wildly inaccurate and will be proved so in the coming months.”

Even so, Bondurant agreed with the other analysts that the USDA numbers will come out “roughly unchanged.” The U.S., the world’s largest cotton shipper, exported 13.2 million bales a year earlier and ended July with 6.1 million bales on hand.

Bondurant said that he estimates output of 13.1 million bales for the year that started Aug. 1, and exports will jump to 14 million bales and inventories will be 1.7 million bales at the end of next July. In August, the USDA estimated the cotton crop for the year ended last July 31 was 12.82 million bales.

Analysts on average said the USDA will project stockpiles to be 5.55 million bales on July 31, according to the survey. That is little changed from the 5.6 million-bale USDA inventory estimate last month. A bale weighs 480 pounds (218 kilograms).

Cotton futures for December delivery rose 0.01 cent to 60.77 cents a pound yesterday on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The most-active contract has climbed 24 percent this year.



U.S. Cotton Estimates
2009-2010 (million bales)

Source Output Exports Ending Stocks

Flanagan 13.3 10.1 6.2
Kropf & Love 13.25 10.2 5.65
Plains Cotton 12.95 10.5 4.92
Anderson 12.9 10.2 5.3
FCStone 13.3 10 5.8
First Capitol 13.438 10.5 5.4
Intermarkt 13.185 10.2 5.6
=========================================================
Average 13.19 10.24 5.55
USDA Aug. Estimate 13.21 10.2 5.6