1987 vs 2007 历史会重演吗? (Update)

1987年的市场大崩盘总是熊派爱抄的热门话题,

现在的熊气冲天和三月初市场刚大跌时是何其相似. 那会就已经有人对1987 和2007 作了对比.
看看当时的对比很有意思, 转贴如下:

1987 versus 2007

I keep repeating I am not a fan of the 1987 parallel to 2007. I am not saying its impossible -- just less likely than other potential parallels (My choice is 1973, Doug Kass' is 1937).

Yet many readers keep drawing my attention to the 1987 conclusion. As a service to those of you who find this compelling, here is an overlay of the chart several of you have sent in.

Dow Industrials 1986-87 - 2006-07

看上去真的很吓人.


结果,有好事者后来又重新作了对比, 不同的是归一成同样的尺度:


UPDATE: April 20, 2007 6:21am

This chart (courtesy of Charles) shows the scale of the run up between the two eras to be very different . . .

Dow 1987 and 2007, scaled to 100
click for larger graph

 
原来有这么大差别的图, 也可以弄的如此相似. (对比上图) 只要不成比例关系的放大就可以了.

所以, 不要自己吓自己.