大盘一周分析 （The week of 8/11/08） （组图）

        QQQQ  自8/6  突破铁箱的上沿，一路狂飙，超过 $48.  S&P 也在昨天突破 1292 的关口。 这波升势是由于 Strong Dollar 所推动的。 美元在过去的一周里暴涨了 5%  从71.35 到 76.13.创下了六个月的新高。 这在以往，需要半年的时间。 美元的暴涨，加速了 GOLD 的暴跌，并推动 OIL 连续下降。但美元的强势，并不是由于 FA 的改进，而是因为 EURO zoon 的衰弱。虽然美元的强势还会继续一段时间，但根本问题没有解决，美元还会走弱。在美元指数破 82 之前，美元长期下降的趋势并没有丝毫改变。最近美元有短期到顶的迹象。见下图。

点图看大图
 

    美元短期已经严重超买，是到了调整的时候了。 美元的走向，会影响石油的走向，以及Commodity related stocks and sectors. Such as  Base Metal, Energy, Fertilizer, 和黄金的走向。 黄金的指数最终有可能到 760。 那时会是非常好的买入机会。 由于可预见的美元短期到顶，Commodity Related stock, 会短期有反弹。原油在 110 有很强的支撑，USO 也因此会有反弹。这回导致大盘的回落。

再看 QQQQ,  最近的 Sector rotation 使得 QQQQ 变得很强，带领大盘上涨。QQQQ 在突破 46 以后三天内就达到了下一个箱型的顶部。见图 44-46  和 46-48 是等高的两段，突破后的涨幅至少是原来箱型的高度。在达到这个高度后，通常是会做调整。昨天的图上，已经有了迹象。 
 
点图看大图。
  
 48.3 也正好是 Fibo 61.8% retracement 的点位。因此，46 到 48 也许会成为新的箱型。近期 QQQQ 如不能突破，则会回测 46。

S&P 500 由于有Financials 的拖累，是三大指数中比较弱的。突破 1292 后，1320 是下一个阻力带。 1320 也正好是 Fibo 50%  Retracement 的点位。 在1320 附近，6/26  留下的窗口还未填上。这也许是近期反弹的高点。 由于这周是 OE 周，SPX  Max Pain 刚好在 1300，在其附近有一个 Option Related 阻力带。OE day,  S&P 很可能收在 1300 附近。


JM2C

[xxq2001]

谢谢。Thanks for sharing.

[waveplayer]

回复xxq2001的评论:The magnitue of inflation may not reaches same degree as 80's, but will be much worse than now. I am not saying the GOLD will go to sky high, but the crisis we are facing is very serious and we have not yet seen the full picture unfolding. My estimate is GOLD could reach 1600 in next two years. So now GOLD is "Cheap"

[xxq2001]

For argument sake, talking about the price of gold in the 80s, that was a period of hyper inflation during Carter administration, when savings interest rate was around 14% and mortgage interest 19-20%. I do not see that is coming back in the near future. Should we use the numbers of those period as a bench mark?

[桐]

waveplayer ，非常感谢您写的分析报告。几乎天天都要看你的blog。
我想请问你一下，那个us dollar index 的代码是什么？我也想在我系统里面看看图。我是新手，见笑了。谢谢你！

[xxq2001]

Thanks for your response. It is reassuring. I appreciate it.

[wavePlayer]

回复xxq2001的评论:The reason why I am a big bull on Gold is weak dollar and worsening global economy. Since 70's dollar and GOLD disconnected, dollar has lost it value every day. Dollar as currency without back of GOLD can not retain it's value. Especially recent years, FED print too many money, only this year, there is 16% more dollars than last year which is 30 years high. Only GOLD can retain it's value especially under dollar de-value and inflation environment. We have not reach the peak of the GOLD create in 80's If adjust by the inflation factor, the peak GOLD price would beyoung $2000 using current money.

This situation will continue until US economy start to recover. Current strenth in dollar ( it may last up to 4 months) is still short term, it is calm before storm. If you do not use those money, just hold your GLD, you will make money on it.

[xxq2001]

I spoke with a friend who is a jeweller. He said gold is too expensive now and it is not worth the risk to buy or to own it. Looking at the chart, it seems to me that it has gone up a lot in the past year. Do you think the price has gone ahead of itself like the tech bubble? I have already bought some GLD at 94，should I cut or hold?

[wavePlayer]

回复orange2007的评论:those for FX trader or anyone who want to unload dollar because dollare has long term trend to go down further. So sell dollar into strenth. What I saw is: Even dollar's long term down trend is intact, the dollar strenth could last up to 4 to 5 months. It will has ups and downs during this period, but dollar index will go up to 82 and push GOLD down to 760. I think this will generate a good opportunity to buy GOLD for long term investment. GOLD could go as high as 1600 at peak in next two years.

[orange2007]

according to cnbc, it says "a brief rally in the dollar following news of the narrower trade gap in June may have provided an opportunity to sell the currency".
So it supports your point.
But I don't really understand the argument. Any idea?

[wavePlayer]

回复xxq2001的评论: 不是马上，我说的是长期。看看 FA 就知道了。

[xxq2001]

Why do you think the trend for US$ is getting weaker? Thank you