回复：儿医，好准呀！能透漏一下你的新低的估计吗？

As the fist one in DQ to declare bear market in firm tone. I still remain my bearish view. The market is not near bottom at all. Technically, the US stock marker is already crashed. We do not see major index crash because such cash is masked by unusual bull performace of oil, basic material, agricutulre etc. Ironically the more "bullish" of these sectors are, the bearish the outlook is. The super bullish of these sectors only have two reasons: speculation or real. If speculation, they will crash some day. If real, economy will get suffered badly due to high price in most fundamental stuff. Both scenerios will yeild bad outcome for months to come.

In bear market, the speed to go down is twice as much as the speed to go up (rebounce). This makes pychological sense. When significant amount of players have bearish concern in mind, price goes up with hesitation. However, when it goes down, everyone wants to the first to jump out of ship. If the market takes X trading days from a sound base price of A to top price B, it will take roughly X/2 (+/- 5% error of margin) trading days to go down from B back to price A.

I do not know what the market will do in the near future. there might be a rebounce. the next 10 trading days are critical to determine the direction of market in next couple of months.

good luck.









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continue to count: 4 more days to reach March low. 2008-06-20 09:03:34

It seems like DOW is already there by another 50 points down!

来源: pediatrician2 于 08-06-11 07:27:34 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]
counting:March low has 9 more trading days to go

来源: pediatrician2 于 08-06-06 10:07:44 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]
12 more days to go before we go back to March low.

来源: pediatrician2 于 08-05-21 11:45:47 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]
major indexes go back to early March low in 25
trading days starting from 20MAY2008.
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来源: pediatrician2 于 08-05-20 11:14:01 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]
跟你们说了,股市泻起来是很吓人的. 现在的市场就像一个病情严重的高烧病人, 医生给上了大剂量退烧药,激素暂时缓解了一下症状. 问题还在那里根本都没有变.

FED倒是TAKE OVER 不少RISK了. 问题总和根本没有一点变化. 这点SENSE都没有很难在现在的市场混啊.

我的COMMENT是给熊熊听得. 牛牛门不要怕. 股市永远都是向上的,如果给予足够多的时间.
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TMA这个阿斗，曾经发誓TMA不跨我去死。 可惜啊，俺的 2008-06-20 05:56:01

PUT早就过期了。还亏了几千。OPTION 难玩啊。还是SHORT好。
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